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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. Bidenomics At Work

Bidenomics At Work

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  • G George K
    4 Nov 2023, 14:08

    @jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

    The BLS have their methods, administrations come and go.

    Which raises the question: Has BLS revised numbers in the past, and if so, how often?

    J Online
    J Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 15:41 last edited by
    #79

    @George-K said in Bidenomics At Work:

    @jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

    The BLS have their methods, administrations come and go.

    Which raises the question: Has BLS revised numbers in the past, and if so, how often?

    I think they literally always revise them There are things that are estimated in the first pass that can be measured in the second.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      Jolly
      wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 15:42 last edited by
      #80

      Then the press does the public a mighty disservice by acting as the propaganda arm for the administration.

      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

      1 Reply Last reply
      • J Online
        J Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 15:47 last edited by
        #81

        There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

        In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

        In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

        So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        J A 2 Replies Last reply 4 Nov 2023, 15:47
        • J jon-nyc
          4 Nov 2023, 15:47

          There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

          In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

          In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

          So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

          J Offline
          J Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 15:47 last edited by
          #82

          @jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

          There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

          In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

          In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

          So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

          Therefore, lies are ok?

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          1 Reply Last reply
          • J Online
            J Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 15:54 last edited by
            #83

            First draft estimates using long standing published methodology is hardly a ‘lie’.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Offline
              J Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 15:58 last edited by
              #84

              They are not presented as first drafts. They are presented in MSM as hard numbers and rarely are the revisions reported as news, except as a blurb on page 15.

              Intentional obfuscation is a lie.

              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

              1 Reply Last reply
              • J Online
                J Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 16:19 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2023, 16:19
                #85

                Fun to see an Always Trumper needing a fainting couch to deal with the big lie of BLS statistics.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Offline
                  J Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on 4 Nov 2023, 16:24 last edited by Jolly 11 Apr 2023, 16:26
                  #86

                  I didn't mention Trump. Other than a link, I haven't mentioned Biden in the link about job numbers.

                  The Bible sez the wicked flee, when no man pursueth...

                  Correction: I did mention The Resident on 8/28/2023 in this thread.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • J Online
                    J Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on 8 Nov 2023, 17:04 last edited by
                    #87

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • A Offline
                      A Offline
                      Axtremus
                      wrote on 8 Nov 2023, 17:08 last edited by
                      #88

                      Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                      What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                      Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                      J 1 Reply Last reply 8 Nov 2023, 19:34
                      • A Axtremus
                        8 Nov 2023, 17:08

                        Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                        What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                        Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                        J Offline
                        J Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on 8 Nov 2023, 19:34 last edited by
                        #89

                        @Axtremus said in Bidenomics At Work:

                        Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                        What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                        Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                        You don't make much money preaching doom and gloom in the financial sector. At least for most investments.

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        A 1 Reply Last reply 8 Nov 2023, 21:46
                        • J Jolly
                          8 Nov 2023, 19:34

                          @Axtremus said in Bidenomics At Work:

                          Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                          What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                          Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                          You don't make much money preaching doom and gloom in the financial sector. At least for most investments.

                          A Offline
                          A Offline
                          Axtremus
                          wrote on 8 Nov 2023, 21:46 last edited by
                          #90

                          @Jolly , that may be true, but the virtually all the individual inputs that are aggregated into the consensus come from the financial sector. So that doesn’t explain why Goldman Sachs appear to be more optimistic that the rest of the financial sector.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • G Offline
                            G Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on 13 Nov 2023, 15:51 last edited by
                            #91

                            Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            L 1 Reply Last reply 13 Nov 2023, 23:01
                            • G George K
                              13 Nov 2023, 15:51

                              Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

                              L Offline
                              L Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on 13 Nov 2023, 23:01 last edited by
                              #92

                              @George-K said in Bidenomics At Work:

                              Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

                              Yeah, they’ll finish the job…

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • G Offline
                                G Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on 19 Nov 2023, 21:57 last edited by
                                #93

                                Why Americans Dislike the Economy

                                “Why are the vibes so bad?” ask legions of commentators, noting the disconnect between polling on the economy and top-level economic indicators. The unemployment rate is within spitting distance of 60-year lows, and measured inflation has dropped from a punishingly high 9 percent rate to a lower, though still too high, 3.2 percent.

                                And yet, citizens are unhappy with the economy. According to a New York Times–Siena poll, 81 percent of registered voters described the condition of the economy as fair or poor, and only 19 percent called it good or excellent. Another poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, found that a majority of voters said that they are worse off under President Biden then they were before, and only 14 percent said that they are better off. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, the Times–Siena poll found voters trusting Donald Trump more than President Biden on the economy.

                                To reconcile voters’ discontent with the economic data, we shouldn’t consider the top-level employment and inflation indicators separately. Instead, we should combine them—and when we do, we observe workers’ real (that is, after inflation) wages have declined significantly in recent years.

                                Some commentators argue that real wages are rising, but these claims are based on the popular average hourly earnings measure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics. Average hourly earnings is a less useful indicator now because of large workforce-composition changes. During the pandemic, the economy shed large numbers of low-paying service jobs (for instance, in leisure and hospitality), which pushed the average wage in the economy higher. The average moved up because low-paying jobs dropped from BLS’s sample, not because individuals experienced strong wage growth. The effect reversed as the economy began adding those low-paying service jobs back, which pushed average hourly earnings down. Those composition effects linger today, as the economy is still short 560,000 leisure and hospitality jobs (adjusting for labor-force growth), relative to pre-pandemic levels, due largely to firms’ difficulty finding workers.

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                L 1 Reply Last reply 21 Nov 2023, 17:06
                                • T Offline
                                  T Offline
                                  taiwan_girl
                                  wrote on 21 Nov 2023, 10:35 last edited by
                                  #94

                                  I think it is because the price changes were somewhat "drastic" compared to previously, when the inflation rate was low for an extended period of time. The "old" prices are still fresh in peoples minds.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • J Offline
                                    J Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on 21 Nov 2023, 12:56 last edited by
                                    #95

                                    People remember 2018 and 2019. They understand how things changed with COVID and the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                    And they understand that the rosy scenario the Biden Administration is painting is not entirely true. Hospitality jobs have not recovered. Many people can no longer afford a car. Many people cannot afford food. As temporary Medicaid rolls are scaled back, many can no longer afford health insurance.

                                    The people know.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    D 1 Reply Last reply 21 Nov 2023, 13:24
                                    • M Away
                                      M Away
                                      Mik
                                      wrote on 21 Nov 2023, 13:03 last edited by
                                      #96

                                      Not to mention the drastic increase in rents most places. If a kid starting out would spend the long-standard 25% on housing they'd be living in a tent. It's much closer to, and sometimes above, 50%. Buying property is nearly impossible.

                                      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • J Jolly
                                        21 Nov 2023, 12:56

                                        People remember 2018 and 2019. They understand how things changed with COVID and the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                        And they understand that the rosy scenario the Biden Administration is painting is not entirely true. Hospitality jobs have not recovered. Many people can no longer afford a car. Many people cannot afford food. As temporary Medicaid rolls are scaled back, many can no longer afford health insurance.

                                        The people know.

                                        D Offline
                                        D Offline
                                        Doctor Phibes
                                        wrote on 21 Nov 2023, 13:24 last edited by
                                        #97

                                        @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                        the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                        That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                        I was only joking

                                        J 1 Reply Last reply 21 Nov 2023, 14:40
                                        • D Doctor Phibes
                                          21 Nov 2023, 13:24

                                          @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                          That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                          J Offline
                                          J Offline
                                          Jolly
                                          wrote on 21 Nov 2023, 14:40 last edited by
                                          #98

                                          @Doctor-Phibes said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                          That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                          That's Ax reasoning. Look at a 90 day chart and then extrapolate to reach whatever conclusion is desired.

                                          People look back at pre-COVID and then they look at prices now. Most - rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) - place a lot of blame on The Resident.

                                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                          G D 2 Replies Last reply 21 Nov 2023, 15:25
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