In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

[Aqua Letifer]

I don't think that would be a function of the right or wrong kind; I think that would be an indicator of my being an asshole. Which I am, in the disagreeable sort of way. Not in that way.

I've already said many times where I stand on this. Do it safely, minimize the risk. A whole lot of industries can already do this. It's the high-risk ones that need more time, and there are relatively few of those. And so yes, keep them closed. Hell tax me more to pay for it, I don't give a shit. Unemployed is better than dead. Feel differently all you like.

As for the class stuff, the folks I know with those jobs are still working. Between them and me, I'm the one with a shaky job future.

[Jolly]

@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

I don't think that would be a function of the right or wrong kind; I think that would be an indicator of my being an asshole. Which I am, in the disagreeable sort of way. Not in that way.

I've already said many times where I stand on this. Do it safely, minimize the risk. A whole lot of industries can already do this. It's the high-risk ones that need more time, and there are relatively few of those. And so yes, keep them closed. Hell tax me more to pay for it, I don't give a shit. Unemployed is better than dead. Feel differently all you like.

As for the class stuff, the folks I know with those jobs are still working. Between them and me, I'm the one with a shaky job future.

No, you're not an asshole. You're scared. You may not admit it, but it's obvious at a certain level. In your case or Jon's case, scared is not bad, it's prudent. I've been scared part of my working day and we don't have anywhere near the level of nastiness seen in Baton Rouge, much less New Orleans. I have three comorbidities and if I get a decent case if COVID, life could be interesting. But I do the job. Mainly because I'm used to it, I'm pretty good at it and in some small way I help people.

OTOH, I've been here before. I was in that generation that staggered through the beginnings of the AIDS epidemic, before we knew what caused it or why people were dying. I've also come to the realization that I'm not living forever and God will call me when he's ready, not when I'm ready. Let go, and let God, I guess.

In normal conversations, though, I can hear the worry in some people's voices. They don't have the money to sit at home for an extended period of time. Some don't even have jobs to go back to, or they don't know when things will be back to normal, if ever. The phlebotomist I worked with today, was furloughed by her main job this last Thursday. She has a disabled husband at home, a kid finishing up college and a mortgage to meet. And until some semblance of half-normal comes back to healthcare, her prospects are looking grim. And there are many millions in her shoes or even worse.

At some point, the cure is worse than the disease. Now how we go back to work or when, is open to debate. But we are going to have to bite the bullet at some point. Maybe not May first. Maybe not the middle of May.

But it's not going to be much longer than that. The country simply can't stand it.

[AndyD]

I'm with Jolly 100% on this.

The UK seems to have hit a plateau of about 1k deaths a day by the way. I'm guessing construction will be first to return to work here, maybe in June?
Then shops.
Schools and Universities will be back in September/October, having learnt that you can do much online, and Universities may be considering their whole operational future.

[jon-nyc]

Jolly is missing the point. It’s not that I (or Mik, or mark, or Aqua, if I may dare to speak for them), don’t want people to return to work. It’s just that we want an effective test and trace regimen in place when we do so.

It’s possible to end the economic catastrophe without a huge secondary (and probably more) waves.

I just don’t see enough will to do it.

[mark]

@jon-nyc

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

Jolly is missing the point. It’s not that I (or Mik, or mark, or Aqua, if I may dare to speak for them), don’t want people to return to work. It’s just that we want an effective test and trace regimen in place when we do so.

It’s possible to end the economic catastrophe without a huge secondary (and probably more) waves.

I just don’t see enough will to do it.

That's a wonderful sentiment, but it may not be possible, either through an inability to test at the necessary level or Americans not allowing themselves to be traced. I know people who put their cellphones in a cooking pot as soon as they get in the car, not taking it out until they get back home.

So, what do we do?

[Aqua Letifer]

There have got to be safety protocols, massive testing, and contact tracing in place. Even if that takes another month, in my book that would be worth it. You want a line in the sand, there you go, that's mine. I like the Ohio plan.

I think what we don't do, because it would be absolute worst thing possible to do, would be to flip the switch and everyone returns to normal life starting Monday.

[Loki]

The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

[Copper]

A lot of construction workers never left here. There are several homes being built in this neighborhood.

[jon-nyc]

Loki, where are you getting these R estimates?

[LuFins Dad]

@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

Florida’s numbers started declining 2 weeks ago, which is a result of exposures 2 weeks before that. So what happened in Florida around March 15th to account for the drop?

[Loki]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/deloitte.visual.analytics#!/vizhome/DeloitteCOVID-19EconomicRecoveryDashboard/DeloitteCOVID-19Analysis

https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=4KLSjcxKzUyYsMlDMHJjs-0615374778ew3b&wavid=0&options=3-0

[Loki]

Vaccine ready by September?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

80% confident

[George K]

@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

de Blasio wasn't much better:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/

On WYNC on Friday, he said researchers had only discovered “in the last 48 hours” that asymptomatic people can spread the disease. If Trump made the same preposterous claim, there would be howling calls for impeachment, renewed questions about his state of mind. Public-health professionals have known for months how the coronavirus spreads and who can do the spreading. If de Blasio didn't know, the fault is fully his own.

That would have been April 3.

When did this become common knowledge?

[jon-nyc]

Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.

[Loki]

Biden has a plan to open the country. Your Easter egg hunt is to go find it. It’s pretty much a re-summary of what’s out there but he senses staying at home is not the plan.

[Aqua Letifer]

@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.

What's the counter-argument? What has he personally done, rather than play his very bizarre form of misinformed cheerleader?

[jon-nyc]

It wouldn’t be my plan either. I bet his plan looks a lot like what I’ve been talking about.

[Loki]

@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

The latest effective reproduction estimate:

US 1.04
NY. .99
FL. .91
LA. .78

[jon-nyc]

God I hope its true. Have you found anything describing their methodology? It seems to be a simple calculation based on either case or death data. The only data source they list is the main page of JH's GitHub.