In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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Today the effective reproductive number for the US is 1.07 and for NY it is 1.08. Today or tomorrow NY peaks. The entire country is forecasted need 1/2 of the ventilators Cuomo direly called for a week ago. That’s where we are now. Very different picture than the media had us believe not long ago.
What period are we doubling down on?
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1.07 doesn’t do the job, and we’re only going up from there.
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IOW, what Mik said. lol
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I can’t tell you the exact day, but if R stays north of 1, it will as surely as night follows day. See my graph above.
And it won’t even stay at 1.07. Because people think that dropping means we have it beat.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
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This thread has more laughs than a German comedy convention.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
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So yeah, predicting that we’ll grow again after a pause contains the prediction that we’ll open up before implementing a sufficiently effective test and trace.
Obviously effective antivirals or a vaccine changes everything.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
You’re forgetting that we got to 1.something by shutting down the planet in the first place. Now we’re discussing opening it back up.
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Loki - there exists a scenario where we lock down and stay locked down enough to get to a minuscule number of new cases, meanwhile building a test and trace capability the is comprehensive enough to keep new outbreaks at bay. IOW, the hammer and the dance.
I don’t think the mood of the country is in the right place to implement that.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Good article. Don’t underestimate how quickly we will make progress in each of the areas. Right now in many of the examples it’s just a matter of getting to scale and without an economy there is no living, Staying at home is well just not an option.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
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Raison d'etre? Au contraire, mon frere!
I the month I have been sequestered I have awarded $8500 in four scholarships, volunteered to help out local health systems and states nationwide with IT tasks needed, arranged a mover for my daughter...and wasted entirely too much time here. As usual. My world has gone on with little serious interruption, and would still if MFR and I had both still been working.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
The vast, vast majority of us are still able to do so and continue to.
