In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:38 last edited by
I can’t tell you the exact day, but if R stays north of 1, it will as surely as night follows day. See my graph above.
And it won’t even stay at 1.07. Because people think that dropping means we have it beat.
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Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:40 last edited by Loki 4 Nov 2020, 16:42@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:46 last edited by
This thread has more laughs than a German comedy convention.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:49 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:52 last edited by@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:57 last edited by
So yeah, predicting that we’ll grow again after a pause contains the prediction that we’ll open up before implementing a sufficiently effective test and trace.
Obviously effective antivirals or a vaccine changes everything.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 16:59 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
You’re forgetting that we got to 1.something by shutting down the planet in the first place. Now we’re discussing opening it back up.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 17:02 last edited by
Also we know that the flu comes and goes seasonally. We do not know this about C19. Colds, another corona virus, are with us all year.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 17:02 last edited by
Loki - there exists a scenario where we lock down and stay locked down enough to get to a minuscule number of new cases, meanwhile building a test and trace capability the is comprehensive enough to keep new outbreaks at bay. IOW, the hammer and the dance.
I don’t think the mood of the country is in the right place to implement that.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 18:55 last edited by
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Good article. Don’t underestimate how quickly we will make progress in each of the areas. Right now in many of the examples it’s just a matter of getting to scale and without an economy there is no living, Staying at home is well just not an option.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 18:58 last edited by
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
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For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:03 last edited by Loki 4 Nov 2020, 19:03@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:16 last edited by Mik 4 Nov 2020, 19:17
Raison d'etre? Au contraire, mon frere!
I the month I have been sequestered I have awarded $8500 in four scholarships, volunteered to help out local health systems and states nationwide with IT tasks needed, arranged a mover for my daughter...and wasted entirely too much time here. As usual. My world has gone on with little serious interruption, and would still if MFR and I had both still been working.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:27 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
The vast, vast majority of us are still able to do so and continue to.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
The vast, vast majority of us are still able to do so and continue to.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:32 last edited by Loki 4 Nov 2020, 19:33@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
The vast, vast majority of us are still able to do so and continue to.
I’m not saying they are not now. I totally disagree the current situation is tenable without a clear plan in 4 weeks. Each week will see the plan solidify. It’s already started, we are to phase 2 right now. Granted the slope back up will be slower than the slope down but just watch all the trends.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
The vast, vast majority of us are still able to do so and continue to.
I’m not saying they are not now. I totally disagree the current situation is tenable without a clear plan in 4 weeks. Each week will see the plan solidify. It’s already started, we are to phase 2 right now. Granted the slope back up will be slower than the slope down but just watch all the trends.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:34 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
The vast, vast majority of us are still able to do so and continue to.
I’m not saying they are not now. I totally disagree the current situation is tenable without a clear plan in 4 weeks. Each week will see the plan solidify. It’s already started, we are to phase 2 right now. Granted the slope back up will be slower than the slope down but just watch all the trends. The exception to this is the economic pain.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:37 last edited by
I'm with Mik. I'm not doing a damn thing until (1) there's a good plan in place and (2) it's actually being implemented.
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wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:47 last edited by
I hope you are right, Loki, and it would certainly make sense for you to be. I just don't see the evidence yet. I am sure a lot is going on in the background, but the tracking, etc. are herculean tasks that may not go over well with Americans. I already know folks who think this is just a big population control cover to strip us of our Constitutional rights.
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I hope you are right, Loki, and it would certainly make sense for you to be. I just don't see the evidence yet. I am sure a lot is going on in the background, but the tracking, etc. are herculean tasks that may not go over well with Americans. I already know folks who think this is just a big population control cover to strip us of our Constitutional rights.
wrote on 11 Apr 2020, 19:50 last edited by@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
I hope you are right, Loki, and it would certainly make sense for you to be. I just don't see the evidence yet. I am sure a lot is going on in the background, but the tracking, etc. are herculean tasks that may not go over well with Americans. I already know folks who think this is just a big population control cover to strip us of our Constitutional rights.
So they would rather stay home clutching their guns and bibles?
The Audicity of Hope.