In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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I’m officially doubling down on this.
Not only are we not below 1 now, but we aren’t going to go there any time soon.
In fact we’ll go the other way. People will think we beat this and start to relax.
When we look back from, say, the end of the year, we will not see April as the month with the most cases or the most deaths.
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So what would be a good month to just drop everything and kill thousands in ritual economic sacrifice? Those Temple of Doom guys have a pretty good model if you wanna do it with flair, I guess.
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Today the effective reproductive number for the US is 1.07 and for NY it is 1.08. Today or tomorrow NY peaks. The entire country is forecasted need 1/2 of the ventilators Cuomo direly called for a week ago. That’s where we are now. Very different picture than the media had us believe not long ago.
What period are we doubling down on?
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Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
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This thread has more laughs than a German comedy convention.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.
You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.
There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.
But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.
You’re forgetting that we got to 1.something by shutting down the planet in the first place. Now we’re discussing opening it back up.
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Loki - there exists a scenario where we lock down and stay locked down enough to get to a minuscule number of new cases, meanwhile building a test and trace capability the is comprehensive enough to keep new outbreaks at bay. IOW, the hammer and the dance.
I don’t think the mood of the country is in the right place to implement that.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Good article. Don’t underestimate how quickly we will make progress in each of the areas. Right now in many of the examples it’s just a matter of getting to scale and without an economy there is no living, Staying at home is well just not an option.
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For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
For everyone else, perhaps. For me, no problem.
I'm not underestimating anything. None of these things exist today and as far as I know there is no concrete plan for any of them. When I see that I will perhaps change my position
You are no longer the majority opinion (boomer). Young people have lives, jobs, families to contemplate which depend on getting out there and making money not to mention a raison d’etre
