Not bad, Tesla
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Saw that the other day.
Questions:
- Is that a full load for a semi? I have no idea if it is. Was it running with a smaller load?
- How long to charge up to full charge, and at what cost?
- What proportion of semi truck hauls are less than 500 miles?
- What is the infrastructure for charging the batteries? I would guess you can't just drive up to your local EV charging station and plug in.
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The answer to the question that you always pose in EV threads using different words is “no it doesn’t yet replace current technology in every use case”.
Disruptive technologies never do, in the beginning. They have their niche and they slowly improve and grow from there.
Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.
No guarantee that any particular disruptive technology will succeed, of course, but I think the industry has an identifiable path through the commonly cited barriers for EV acceptance (charging time, battery capacity, the chicken-egg problem of commercial station availability, etc.)
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
The answer to the question that you always pose in EV threads using different words is “no it doesn’t yet replace current technology in every use case”.
Disruptive technologies never do, in the beginning. They have their niche and they slowly improve and grow from there.
Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.
No guarantee that any particular disruptive technology will succeed, of course, but I think the industry has an identifiable path through the commonly cited barriers for EV acceptance (charging time, battery capacity, the chicken-egg problem of commercial station availability, etc.)
@jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:
Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.
Around 2000 I remember having a discussion with Rachel where she said digital photography is great for amateurs but professional photo shoots will always need film. I said you just wait. 10 years later, everything was digital of course, and she had no recollection of our conversation.
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@jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:
Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.
Around 2000 I remember having a discussion with Rachel where she said digital photography is great for amateurs but professional photo shoots will always need film. I said you just wait. 10 years later, everything was digital of course, and she had no recollection of our conversation.
I was only joking
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@jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:
500mi is pretty close to the maximum miles a driver will clock before he’s required to rest minimum 10 hours so it’s a pretty decent target.
800 miles is the target. Drivers are required to not drive more than 12 hours after 10 hours off. I’m sure that there are long haul truckers that break that law, but that doesn’t change the target. I would still have questions regarding efficiency and reliability, but it’s a good start.
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And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
Now, there are 10x as many.
Same thing will happen with charging stations.
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And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
Now, there are 10x as many.
Same thing will happen with charging stations.
@taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:
And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
Now, there are 10x as many.That's right. And it only took 100 years.
What was the demand for gas stations in 1920, compared to the ownership of an automobile? I would guess that the ratio of people needing gas stations in 1920 to the availabilty of gas stations was significantly different than a similar comparison of EV charging stations.
It will happen, to be sure, especially with electricity coming from unicorn farts and lithium magically appearing out of nowhere.
But not soon, and not without major inconvenience.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:
And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
Now, there are 10x as many.That's right. And it only took 100 years.
What was the demand for gas stations in 1920, compared to the ownership of an automobile? I would guess that the ratio of people needing gas stations in 1920 to the availabilty of gas stations was significantly different than a similar comparison of EV charging stations.
It will happen, to be sure, especially with electricity coming from unicorn farts and lithium magically appearing out of nowhere.
But not soon, and not without major inconvenience.
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And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
Now, there are 10x as many.
Same thing will happen with charging stations.
@taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:
Same thing will happen with charging stations.
If we redirected all the electricity in the world today to powering our cars, would it be enough?
If not, where will it come from?
Coal? Natural gas? Oil? Nuclear?
Is there enough coal in the world to make the electricity needed?
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@taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:
And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
Now, there are 10x as many.That's right. And it only took 100 years.
What was the demand for gas stations in 1920, compared to the ownership of an automobile? I would guess that the ratio of people needing gas stations in 1920 to the availabilty of gas stations was significantly different than a similar comparison of EV charging stations.
It will happen, to be sure, especially with electricity coming from unicorn farts and lithium magically appearing out of nowhere.
But not soon, and not without major inconvenience.
@George-K Good points. I hadn't thought of it that way.
In any case, got me investigating.
1920
9,000,000 cars
~14,000 petrol stationsSo today, it appears that there are probably less petrol stations per car now than back then!! (I am surprised)
(But, i understand that back then, some of the petrol stations were not "true" stations as they sold petrol by the bucket or something like that)
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All the worrying over the problems with battery powered cars isn't going to change the inevitability of what's happening.
Hopefully the batteries are an intermediate stage to finding something that is genuinely better for the environment.
Failing that, maybe we can all work from home and do without the bloody things. I can't bloody stand driving into work. It's such a waste of time.
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@George-K Good points. I hadn't thought of it that way.
In any case, got me investigating.
1920
9,000,000 cars
~14,000 petrol stationsSo today, it appears that there are probably less petrol stations per car now than back then!! (I am surprised)
(But, i understand that back then, some of the petrol stations were not "true" stations as they sold petrol by the bucket or something like that)
@taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:
@George-K Good points. I hadn't thought of it that way.
In any case, got me investigating.
1920
9,000,000 cars
~14,000 petrol stationsSo today, it appears that there are probably less petrol stations per car now than back then!! (I am surprised)
Should probably compare the two time periods using "gallons of fuel sold" rather than "number of automobiles."
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Wyoming.
Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.
Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.
Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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Wyoming.
Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.
Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.
Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.
@Jolly said in Not bad, Tesla:
Wyoming.
Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.
Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.
Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.
But are auto-makers going to build a business model based on sales in Wyoming?
I was only joking
