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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Not bad, Tesla

Not bad, Tesla

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  • jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #4

    500mi is pretty close to the maximum miles a driver will clock before he’s required to rest minimum 10 hours so it’s a pretty decent target.

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
    -Cormac McCarthy

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      The answer to the question that you always pose in EV threads using different words is “no it doesn’t yet replace current technology in every use case”.

      Disruptive technologies never do, in the beginning. They have their niche and they slowly improve and grow from there.

      Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.

      No guarantee that any particular disruptive technology will succeed, of course, but I think the industry has an identifiable path through the commonly cited barriers for EV acceptance (charging time, battery capacity, the chicken-egg problem of commercial station availability, etc.)

      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #5

      @jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:

      Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.

      Around 2000 I remember having a discussion with Rachel where she said digital photography is great for amateurs but professional photo shoots will always need film. I said you just wait. 10 years later, everything was digital of course, and she had no recollection of our conversation.

      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
      -Cormac McCarthy

      Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        @jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:

        Clay Christianson wrote a best selling book about the phenomenon in the 90s - The Innovator’s Dilemma. There are myriad examples from hydraulic cranes to digital photography.

        Around 2000 I remember having a discussion with Rachel where she said digital photography is great for amateurs but professional photo shoots will always need film. I said you just wait. 10 years later, everything was digital of course, and she had no recollection of our conversation.

        Doctor PhibesD Offline
        Doctor PhibesD Offline
        Doctor Phibes
        wrote on last edited by
        #6

        @jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:

        she had no recollection of our conversation.

        lolz

        I was only joking

        LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
        • JollyJ Offline
          JollyJ Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on last edited by
          #7

          It's about the average weight limit in most states.

          A lot of long haul truckers drive in teams. 500 mile range is not enough. For single driver, day-haul stuff it would work.

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          1 Reply Last reply
          • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

            @jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:

            she had no recollection of our conversation.

            lolz

            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #8

            @Doctor-Phibes

            @jon-nyc said in Not bad, Tesla:

            500mi is pretty close to the maximum miles a driver will clock before he’s required to rest minimum 10 hours so it’s a pretty decent target.

            800 miles is the target. Drivers are required to not drive more than 12 hours after 10 hours off. I’m sure that there are long haul truckers that break that law, but that doesn’t change the target. I would still have questions regarding efficiency and reliability, but it’s a good start.

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #9

              Screenshot 2022-11-28 at 7.37.58 PM.png

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girl
                wrote on last edited by
                #10

                And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.

                Now, there are 10x as many.

                Same thing will happen with charging stations.

                George KG CopperC 2 Replies Last reply
                • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                  And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.

                  Now, there are 10x as many.

                  Same thing will happen with charging stations.

                  George KG Offline
                  George KG Offline
                  George K
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #11

                  @taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:

                  And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
                  Now, there are 10x as many.

                  That's right. And it only took 100 years.

                  What was the demand for gas stations in 1920, compared to the ownership of an automobile? I would guess that the ratio of people needing gas stations in 1920 to the availabilty of gas stations was significantly different than a similar comparison of EV charging stations.

                  It will happen, to be sure, especially with electricity coming from unicorn farts and lithium magically appearing out of nowhere.

                  But not soon, and not without major inconvenience.

                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                  MikM taiwan_girlT 2 Replies Last reply
                  • George KG George K

                    @taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:

                    And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
                    Now, there are 10x as many.

                    That's right. And it only took 100 years.

                    What was the demand for gas stations in 1920, compared to the ownership of an automobile? I would guess that the ratio of people needing gas stations in 1920 to the availabilty of gas stations was significantly different than a similar comparison of EV charging stations.

                    It will happen, to be sure, especially with electricity coming from unicorn farts and lithium magically appearing out of nowhere.

                    But not soon, and not without major inconvenience.

                    MikM Offline
                    MikM Offline
                    Mik
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #12

                    @George-K Not to mention the population at that time, which was roughly 1/3 of what it is now.

                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                      And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.

                      Now, there are 10x as many.

                      Same thing will happen with charging stations.

                      CopperC Offline
                      CopperC Offline
                      Copper
                      wrote on last edited by Copper
                      #13

                      @taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:

                      Same thing will happen with charging stations.

                      If we redirected all the electricity in the world today to powering our cars, would it be enough?

                      If not, where will it come from?

                      Coal? Natural gas? Oil? Nuclear?

                      Is there enough coal in the world to make the electricity needed?

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • George KG George K

                        @taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:

                        And in 1920, there were less than 15000 petrol stations in the US.
                        Now, there are 10x as many.

                        That's right. And it only took 100 years.

                        What was the demand for gas stations in 1920, compared to the ownership of an automobile? I would guess that the ratio of people needing gas stations in 1920 to the availabilty of gas stations was significantly different than a similar comparison of EV charging stations.

                        It will happen, to be sure, especially with electricity coming from unicorn farts and lithium magically appearing out of nowhere.

                        But not soon, and not without major inconvenience.

                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girl
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #14

                        @George-K Good points. I hadn't thought of it that way.

                        In any case, got me investigating.

                        1920
                        9,000,000 cars
                        ~14,000 petrol stations

                        So today, it appears that there are probably less petrol stations per car now than back then!! (I am surprised)

                        (But, i understand that back then, some of the petrol stations were not "true" stations as they sold petrol by the bucket or something like that)

                        AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                        • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                          Doctor PhibesD Offline
                          Doctor Phibes
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #15

                          All the worrying over the problems with battery powered cars isn't going to change the inevitability of what's happening.

                          Hopefully the batteries are an intermediate stage to finding something that is genuinely better for the environment.

                          Failing that, maybe we can all work from home and do without the bloody things. I can't bloody stand driving into work. It's such a waste of time.

                          I was only joking

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                            @George-K Good points. I hadn't thought of it that way.

                            In any case, got me investigating.

                            1920
                            9,000,000 cars
                            ~14,000 petrol stations

                            So today, it appears that there are probably less petrol stations per car now than back then!! (I am surprised)

                            (But, i understand that back then, some of the petrol stations were not "true" stations as they sold petrol by the bucket or something like that)

                            AxtremusA Offline
                            AxtremusA Offline
                            Axtremus
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #16

                            @taiwan_girl said in Not bad, Tesla:

                            @George-K Good points. I hadn't thought of it that way.

                            In any case, got me investigating.

                            1920
                            9,000,000 cars
                            ~14,000 petrol stations

                            So today, it appears that there are probably less petrol stations per car now than back then!! (I am surprised)

                            Should probably compare the two time periods using "gallons of fuel sold" rather than "number of automobiles."

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #17

                              Not a bad looking cab.

                              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                              -Cormac McCarthy

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • JollyJ Offline
                                JollyJ Offline
                                Jolly
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #18

                                Wyoming.

                                Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.

                                Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.

                                Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.

                                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                                • 89th8 Offline
                                  89th8 Offline
                                  89th
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #19

                                  The non-engineer in me thinks... why not have a gas back-up, like a Prius on steroids?

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Jolly

                                    Wyoming.

                                    Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.

                                    Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.

                                    Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.

                                    Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                    Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                    Doctor Phibes
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #20

                                    @Jolly said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                    Wyoming.

                                    Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.

                                    Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.

                                    Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.

                                    But are auto-makers going to build a business model based on sales in Wyoming?

                                    I was only joking

                                    JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #21

                                      But Wyoming is dotted with gas stations.

                                      Seems to me that with scale it should be cheaper to deliver electricity to towns in Wyoming than it is to deliver physical gasoline.

                                      But that’s a ways off.

                                      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                      -Cormac McCarthy

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                                        @Jolly said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                        Wyoming.

                                        Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.

                                        Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.

                                        Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.

                                        But are auto-makers going to build a business model based on sales in Wyoming?

                                        JollyJ Offline
                                        JollyJ Offline
                                        Jolly
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #22

                                        @Doctor-Phibes said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                        @Jolly said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                        Wyoming.

                                        Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.

                                        Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.

                                        Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.

                                        But are auto-makers going to build a business model based on sales in Wyoming?

                                        Wyoming. Nebraska. Alaska. West Texas. These are places (and others like them) where EVs just don't make sense. And I don't know if they'll ever become populated enough to support a sufficient grid to power the needed vehicles. Or if EVs will ever have sufficient range to overcome the distance problem.

                                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                        CopperC LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
                                        • JollyJ Jolly

                                          @Doctor-Phibes said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                          @Jolly said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                          Wyoming.

                                          Biggest city in Wyoming is somewhere in the 55k range. A couple of other small cities and then a whole lot of nothing, except for some ranches and pretty small towns.

                                          Like West Texas, I don't see electric vehicles working here. Not even the semis.

                                          Delivery trucks in urban areas, day-haul big rigs in more populated areas...Yep, if diesel is high enough and electricity cheap enough, it makes sense.

                                          But are auto-makers going to build a business model based on sales in Wyoming?

                                          Wyoming. Nebraska. Alaska. West Texas. These are places (and others like them) where EVs just don't make sense. And I don't know if they'll ever become populated enough to support a sufficient grid to power the needed vehicles. Or if EVs will ever have sufficient range to overcome the distance problem.

                                          CopperC Offline
                                          CopperC Offline
                                          Copper
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #23

                                          @Jolly said in Not bad, Tesla:

                                          Wyoming. Nebraska. Alaska. West Texas.

                                          See Siberia for a glimpse of the future for these places.

                                          jon-nycJ Doctor PhibesD 2 Replies Last reply
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