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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trends

Trends

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  • HoraceH Offline
    HoraceH Offline
    Horace
    wrote on last edited by
    #62

    Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

    Education is extremely important.

    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
    • HoraceH Horace

      Rounding would be my guess, but that indicates they are not careful with their code. They need to round before comparing to their defined ranges. Then there is no discrepancy between the number you see and the number used to get the category. I write scientific software and I know these things from painful experience.

      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #63

      @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
      -Cormac McCarthy

      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

        HoraceH Offline
        HoraceH Offline
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by
        #64

        @jon-nyc said in Trends:

        @Horace I’m no expert but I doubt it’s rounding. These are Monte Carlo analyses after all. I’m guessing editorial disputes about what to do about the margin of error.

        They have a fresh discussion every time about what 54.95% means? The italics seem to indicate a formalized category. I looked on the website but didn’t find definitions for the italicized terms.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • AxtremusA Offline
          AxtremusA Offline
          Axtremus
          wrote on last edited by
          #65

          If you folks are talking about the FiveThirtyEight projections and terminology, note that they also have three different “models”, {Lite, Classic, Deluxe}, each with increasingly more human/expert “adjustments” added to polling data. Lots of potential to complicate their definitions for terms like “lean,” “toss up,” and “dead heat.”

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          • LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #66

            BFDD1BE6-3E73-442A-BAC4-46A19722C889.png

            It has to be a rounding thing…

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on last edited by
              #67

              Uh oh!

              82D24BE5-3A37-4A2E-A406-F9D0B8C4EF25.png

              The Brad

              1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by
                #68

                Speaking of trends, O’Dea in Colorado has just pulled into toss-up territory on RCP… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/co/colorado_senate_odea_vs_bennet-7773.html

                Bennet was a double digit favorite a few weeks ago…

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • George KG Offline
                  George KG Offline
                  George K
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #69

                  image.jpeg

                  Wow, they're calling NH, AZ and Nevada for the GOP

                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • George KG Offline
                    George KG Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #70

                    Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                    • George KG George K

                      Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #71

                      @George-K said in Trends:

                      Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 7.31.16 AM.png

                      That’s their final, too.

                      The Brad

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