Florida

[Jolly]

They will not do all that. Edwards announced yesterday, we will remain in Phase 2 for 28 more days. Big deal...People, particularly young people, have said to hell with it and are living life as usual.

I suspect Florida is doing the same thing.

[George K]

Thoughts on this?

[Mik]

So it's already killed off the nursing home population, eh? Heck, the ones that are left can now get infected by the young workers. Swell.

[George K]

Since you mentioned nursing homes, I would like to see a similar analysis of New York.

[Doctor Phibes]

The first question I always ask is, in this case 'Who is Justin Hart?'

[jon-nyc]

Someone needs to tell him about time lag.

[Doctor Phibes]

It looks as though he's been saying we're over-reacting since at least March.

Another one of those guys, IOW.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

Someone needs to tell him about time lag.

Here's some time perspective for Florida - re-opening vs cases vs deaths.

Texas and Arizona also in the Twitter thread. Arizona is interesting.

Toward the end of the thread there's California.

[LuFins Dad]

Was thinking something similar regarding the lag. Let’s see the numbers of hospitalizations in Mid-July and deaths in early August.

Still, the younger ages of the infected will likely result in lower rates of hospitalizations and deaths, so the truth will again be somewhere in the middle.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah, none of these tweets will age well. You would expect the first to venture out to the bars and theaters etc to be young. And for that matter protests. But when we get to the 2nd and 3rd generation of case spawned by that crowd, the age distribution will broaden.

[jon-nyc]

It's really only been about 2.5 weeks since the cases took off. And they really took off only in the last few days.

[George K]

@jon-nyc interesting depressing.

Is that at the "infection2020" site?

[jon-nyc]

Those particular graphs were from NYT, I like them because they show the 7 day average.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

Someone needs to tell him about time lag.

Even if the average age is 36?

[LuFins Dad]

@Loki said in Florida:

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

Someone needs to tell him about time lag.

Even if the average age is 36?

Especially when the average age is 36.

[jon-nyc]

Yes.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

Yes.

Id love to see your math equation on that. What is your IFR on a 36 y.o.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

Yeah, none of these tweets will age well. You would expect the first to venture out to the bars and theaters etc to be young. And for that matter protests. But when we get to the 2nd and 3rd generation of case spawned by that crowd, the age distribution will broaden.

Bumping for Loki, easier than repeating myself.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

@jon-nyc said in Florida:

Yeah, none of these tweets will age well. You would expect the first to venture out to the bars and theaters etc to be young. And for that matter protests. But when we get to the 2nd and 3rd generation of case spawned by that crowd, the age distribution will broaden.

Bumping for Loki, easier than repeating myself.

Ah, so that is the lag you are talking about. I think you are somewhat right but I think the old and vulnerable are much more protected this time around.

[jon-nyc]

Some stats from an NYT piece today.

The situation in Miami is equally serious: One-third of all patients admitted to the city’s main public hospital over the past two weeks after going to the emergency room for car-crash injuries and other urgent problems have tested positive for the coronavirus.

Orlando has seen an explosion of coronavirus: nearly 60 percent of all cases diagnosed in that county came in just the past two weeks.