How about that market?

[Horace]

@George-K said in How about that market?:

What am I missing here?

The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

But the absolute number of jobs did increase, right?

Yes. The real numbers were about half as much of an improvement as the wrong numbers were.

Edit: I mean the difference between predictions and the real numbers was about half as good. I'm not sure about absolute job numbers, but unemployment did go up.

[Horace]

“You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”

I think it's a legitimate concern that Trump falsified these job numbers.

[jon-nyc]

I don’t.

[Horace]

I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

[Loki]

The market had baked in the correction Friday. The story is bogus.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in How about that market?:

I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

Yep. Both on the incentives and the mechanisms available.

[Horace]

The tail risk analysis science has spoken. Maybe Taleb is finding a way to bet on 20 years of president Trump as we speak. Or maybe he's betting that Trump fudged the jobs report, only at way higher odds.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

Down a little more than that, but I can't tell for sure because I didn't mark the 2/19 high. I only save monthly snapshots. I'm down 4.2% from my peak month-end, which was 12/31.

So I finally checked, I’m actually up 12.6% over my peak (12/31 too).

[jon-nyc]

Wow, some good timing on purchases or rebalancing?

[LuFins Dad]

Nothing intentional, though I did put a little into RBGLY (Lysol) in March. They normally trade at $17, but for some reason had dropped to $12 in March. I figured their revenues were going to be through the roof, so why not?) they are trading at $17 again, so that was nice but I didn’t put much in. Mostly the increase was because 12 months ago I shifted to a more aggressive mix and for whatever reason, they’ve recovered exceptionally well since my 12 month low on 3/31.

[Larry]

@jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

Oops

Lets see...

The Washington Post, a rag known for consistently publishing fake news, posts a tweet before the jobs report had even come out claiming the unemployment rate was 20%. Then the jobs report comes out and the unemployment rate actually dropped, and was just over 13%. New jobs bounced higher than even the most optimistic predictions, the Washington Post quickly removes the tweet, then publishes a story about how the report was wrong and the unemployment rate was actually ....20%..

Bwahahahaaaaaaaaaa

Want to buy a bridge in London???

BWWWAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA

[89th]

@jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

Wow, some good timing on purchases or rebalancing?

Jumping on VDE was a decent move. I could’ve DCA’d a bit more but still, it’s up nicely.

I also bought a little American Airlines back when my trader friends said to avoid it. I’ve seen a 142% return so far. Bought it at $8.71 a share. Wish I had bought more!

Overall, I’m up about 10% YTD. Could’ve been more but I still have a good chunk of cash on the sidelines since I didn’t expect the initial rebound to stick.

[jon-nyc]

I heard AA just went to 75% of its old schedule.

Anecdotally, a friend flew LGA-ORD on them Friday and said the plane was 75-80% full. LGA was quiet but ORD busy and half the people not wearing masks.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

I heard AA just went to 75% of its old schedule.

Anecdotally, a friend flew LGA-ORD on them Friday and said the plane was 75-80% full. LGA was quiet but ORD busy and half the people not wearing masks.

Incubator.

[Horace]

Futures are up big, again.

[Copper]

Should I dump the stock of any company that features Blm on the home page?

That is a fair percentage of the portfolio.

It is really in need of a good rebalancing.

[Horace]

No, it makes good business sense to pander to one's customers.

[Loki]

I guess the WaPo correcting unemployment numbers was really on point. More evidence of it today, not.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

Anecdotally, a friend flew LGA-ORD on them Friday and said the plane was 75-80% full. LGA was quiet but ORD busy and half the people not wearing masks.

Guy texted me just a few minutes ago, on his way back:

Plane taking off shortly. Based on lack of consistent mask wearing, etc., it will be a while before we fly again. Son will go back to Michigan via car.

[Horace]

Is he high risk or living with a high risk person?