The Ukraine war thread
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.
Just as Renauda foresaw.
"Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat.
"Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April."
wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:09 last edited by Catseye3 9 Dec 2022, 15:10From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:28 last edited by Renauda 9 Dec 2022, 15:30Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
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Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:34 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.
And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.
And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 16:01 last edited by
Good on ya for your efforts on behalf of Ukraine.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 16:06 last edited by
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Ukraine breaks through to Russian border
That might be bad if they keep going. Especially since they've been armed by basically the entire West.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 16:28 last edited by
They won't. There's still a lot of Ukraine to take back.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:08 last edited by
I agree they will not and nor can they afford to cross that border. The Russians will do everything possible however to provoke a border incursion. They will also more than likely claim a border violation in the coming days.
Already I am hearing that Russian media is claiming that now the whole special operation was from the outset a response to Ukrainian violations of Russian border regions.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:14 last edited by
Putin has really taken Russia into a deep, dark hole.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:17 last edited by
One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.
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One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:48 last edited by
Pretty hard to win when your army does not believe in the mission.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 20:33 last edited by
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 21:17 last edited by
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wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 21:26 last edited by
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 13:32 last edited byFrom the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.
"Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.
"The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions."
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wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 15:31 last edited by
Fractures continue but I can’t help but think Putin has something up his sleeve:
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wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 15:45 last edited by Mik
It would be uncharacteristic for him not to.
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wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 15:56 last edited by Renauda
There are rumours that he will use this setback as an excuse to order full mobilisation. If true, you can anticipate that he will initiate even more repression internally against real and imagined dissent.
Full mobilisation will also up the ante with NATO.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.
"Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.
"The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions."
wrote on 14 Sept 2022, 13:24 last edited byFrom the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons for the Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, a marked change from their previous pattern of reporting on exaggerated or fabricated Russian successes with limited detail."