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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • C Catseye3
    11 Sept 2022, 13:58

    From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

    "The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.

    Just as Renauda foresaw.

    "Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat.

    "Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April."

    C Offline
    C Offline
    Catseye3
    wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:09 last edited by Catseye3 9 Dec 2022, 15:10
    #794

    From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

    "Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "

    No, wait. Correction:

    " -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."

    Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

    R C 2 Replies Last reply 12 Sept 2022, 15:28
    • C Catseye3
      12 Sept 2022, 15:09

      From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

      "Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "

      No, wait. Correction:

      " -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."

      R Offline
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      Renauda
      wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:28 last edited by Renauda 9 Dec 2022, 15:30
      #795

      @Catseye3

      Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.

      Elbows up!

      C 1 Reply Last reply 12 Sept 2022, 15:34
      • R Renauda
        12 Sept 2022, 15:28

        @Catseye3

        Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.

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        Catseye3
        wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:34 last edited by
        #796

        @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

        although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.

        That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.

        And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.

        Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

        R 1 Reply Last reply 12 Sept 2022, 15:39
        • C Catseye3
          12 Sept 2022, 15:34

          @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

          although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.

          That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.

          And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.

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          Renauda
          wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 15:39 last edited by Renauda 9 Dec 2022, 15:41
          #797

          @Catseye3

          No offence taken and I understood and appreciated it to be tongue in cheek.

          Elbows up!

          1 Reply Last reply
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            M Offline
            Mik
            wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 16:01 last edited by
            #798

            Good on ya for your efforts on behalf of Ukraine.

            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

            1 Reply Last reply
            • M Mik
              12 Sept 2022, 13:41

              Ukraine breaks through to Russian border

              https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/situation-more-difficult-by-the-hour-ukrainian-forces-break-through-to-russian-border-live-updates/ar-AA11JlD5?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8bd1cd790179489b80018fbb45de41d5#interstitial=1

              A Offline
              A Offline
              Aqua Letifer
              wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 16:06 last edited by
              #799

              @Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

              Ukraine breaks through to Russian border

              https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/situation-more-difficult-by-the-hour-ukrainian-forces-break-through-to-russian-border-live-updates/ar-AA11JlD5?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8bd1cd790179489b80018fbb45de41d5#interstitial=1

              That might be bad if they keep going. Especially since they've been armed by basically the entire West.

              Please love yourself.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • M Offline
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                Mik
                wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 16:28 last edited by
                #800

                They won't. There's still a lot of Ukraine to take back.

                “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                R 1 Reply Last reply 12 Sept 2022, 17:08
                • M Mik
                  12 Sept 2022, 16:28

                  They won't. There's still a lot of Ukraine to take back.

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                  Renauda
                  wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:08 last edited by
                  #801

                  @Mik

                  I agree they will not and nor can they afford to cross that border. The Russians will do everything possible however to provoke a border incursion. They will also more than likely claim a border violation in the coming days.

                  Already I am hearing that Russian media is claiming that now the whole special operation was from the outset a response to Ukrainian violations of Russian border regions.

                  Elbows up!

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • M Offline
                    M Offline
                    Mik
                    wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:14 last edited by
                    #802

                    Putin has really taken Russia into a deep, dark hole.

                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                    1 Reply Last reply
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                      George K
                      wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:17 last edited by
                      #803

                      One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      R 1 Reply Last reply 12 Sept 2022, 17:29
                      • G George K
                        12 Sept 2022, 17:17

                        One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.

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                        Renauda
                        wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:29 last edited by Renauda
                        #804

                        @George-K

                        Yes that is a real danger although in this case the apparent the Russian skeddaddle is mitigating that threat as Ukrainians are retaking the rail hubs.

                        Elbows up!

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • M Offline
                          M Offline
                          Mik
                          wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 17:48 last edited by
                          #805

                          Pretty hard to win when your army does not believe in the mission.

                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                          1 Reply Last reply
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                            George K
                            wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 20:33 last edited by
                            #806

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            1 Reply Last reply
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                              G Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 21:17 last edited by
                              #807

                              Escape foiled:

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              1 Reply Last reply
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                                G Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on 12 Sept 2022, 21:26 last edited by
                                #808

                                Bull's Eye...

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                I 1 Reply Last reply 8 Oct 2022, 17:58
                                • C Catseye3
                                  12 Sept 2022, 15:09

                                  From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

                                  "Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "

                                  No, wait. Correction:

                                  " -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."

                                  C Offline
                                  C Offline
                                  Catseye3
                                  wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 13:32 last edited by
                                  #809

                                  From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

                                  "Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.

                                  "Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.

                                  "The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions."

                                  Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

                                  C 1 Reply Last reply 14 Sept 2022, 13:24
                                  • R Offline
                                    R Offline
                                    Renauda
                                    wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 15:31 last edited by
                                    #810

                                    Fractures continue but I can’t help but think Putin has something up his sleeve:

                                    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/12/pro-kremlin-figures-voice-frustration-after-ukraine-routs-moscows-forces-a78769

                                    Elbows up!

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • M Offline
                                      M Offline
                                      Mik
                                      wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 15:45 last edited by Mik
                                      #811

                                      It would be uncharacteristic for him not to.

                                      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                      R 1 Reply Last reply 13 Sept 2022, 15:56
                                      • M Mik
                                        13 Sept 2022, 15:45

                                        It would be uncharacteristic for him not to.

                                        R Offline
                                        R Offline
                                        Renauda
                                        wrote on 13 Sept 2022, 15:56 last edited by Renauda
                                        #812

                                        @Mik

                                        There are rumours that he will use this setback as an excuse to order full mobilisation. If true, you can anticipate that he will initiate even more repression internally against real and imagined dissent.

                                        Full mobilisation will also up the ante with NATO.

                                        Elbows up!

                                        M 1 Reply Last reply 14 Sept 2022, 13:27
                                        • C Catseye3
                                          13 Sept 2022, 13:32

                                          From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

                                          "Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.

                                          "Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.

                                          "The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions."

                                          C Offline
                                          C Offline
                                          Catseye3
                                          wrote on 14 Sept 2022, 13:24 last edited by
                                          #813

                                          From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

                                          "The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

                                          "Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons for the Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, a marked change from their previous pattern of reporting on exaggerated or fabricated Russian successes with limited detail."

                                          Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

                                          R C 2 Replies Last reply 14 Sept 2022, 14:00
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