The Ukraine war thread
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Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.
And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.
And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Ukraine breaks through to Russian border
That might be bad if they keep going. Especially since they've been armed by basically the entire West.
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I agree they will not and nor can they afford to cross that border. The Russians will do everything possible however to provoke a border incursion. They will also more than likely claim a border violation in the coming days.
Already I am hearing that Russian media is claiming that now the whole special operation was from the outset a response to Ukrainian violations of Russian border regions.
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One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.
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One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.
"Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.
"The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions."
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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Fractures continue but I can’t help but think Putin has something up his sleeve:
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There are rumours that he will use this setback as an excuse to order full mobilisation. If true, you can anticipate that he will initiate even more repression internally against real and imagined dissent.
Full mobilisation will also up the ante with NATO.
Elbows up!
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.
"Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City.
"The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions."
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons for the Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, a marked change from their previous pattern of reporting on exaggerated or fabricated Russian successes with limited detail."
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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There are rumours that he will use this setback as an excuse to order full mobilisation. If true, you can anticipate that he will initiate even more repression internally against real and imagined dissent.
Full mobilisation will also up the ante with NATO.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
There are rumours that he will use this setback as an excuse to order full mobilisation. If true, you can anticipate that he will initiate even more repression internally against real and imagined dissent.
Full mobilisation will also up the ante with NATO.
That worries me greatly because I have no good sense of Ukrainian personnel losses.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons for the Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, a marked change from their previous pattern of reporting on exaggerated or fabricated Russian successes with limited detail."
From a purely pragmatic point of view, however, Putin and his subordinates cannot admit any failure right now, or indeed react in any way to the retreat. They must continue to pretend that everything is going according to plan, and that the troops were simply redeployed in order to focus efforts on the more important prize of the Donbas. For this is what most Russians — tired of war and frightened of a general mobilization — want to hear. It is precisely this passive loyalty of the silent majority that keeps Putin in power. The ultra-patriots may make a lot of noise, but they are in the minority..
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