The Ukraine war thread
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Gradually then suddenly…..
https://samf.substack.com/p/gradually-then-suddenly?r=17wfy3&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of September 9. Ukrainian
"President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi stated on September 8 that Ukrainian forces liberated over 1,000 square kilometers between September 1-8 – a day before Ukrainian forces reached the southern approach to Kupyansk and the Oskil River on September 9.[1] Ukrainian forces are likely clearing pockets of disorganized Russian forces caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance to Kupyansk, Izyum, and the Oskil River, given the influx of observed pictures of Russian prisoners of war in the past 48 hours."
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.
Just as Renauda foresaw.
"Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat.
"Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April."
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.
Just as Renauda foresaw.
"Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat.
"Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April."
@Catseye3 the Institute for the Study of War's assessments have always struck me as, though probably objective, as very restrained and careful. Not that that's a bad thing of course.
But to read words like "routing," "collapsing," "not a controlled withdrawal," and "hurriedly fleeing" is amazing.
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Ukraine breaks through to Russian border
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.
Just as Renauda foresaw.
"Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat.
"Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April."
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
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Thank you but I do not for a minute believe I predicted or suggested anything other than call it as I see it. Best to leave this retired former subaltern reservist out of it, although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.
And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
although I have been doing volunteer work here with other grey haired former reservists collecting medical supplies and clothing for shipment to Ukraine.
That's great. Good for you, to help relieve shortages.
And I intended no offense. Just thought I'd give you a chuckle.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Ukraine breaks through to Russian border
That might be bad if they keep going. Especially since they've been armed by basically the entire West.
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I agree they will not and nor can they afford to cross that border. The Russians will do everything possible however to provoke a border incursion. They will also more than likely claim a border violation in the coming days.
Already I am hearing that Russian media is claiming that now the whole special operation was from the outset a response to Ukrainian violations of Russian border regions.
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One Twitterer said that Ukraine has to be careful to not outrun its supply lines - that was a fatal mistake that Russia made in the early days of the war.
