The Ukraine war thread
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May. Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces advanced 50km deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) notably did not issue any statement regarding Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast."
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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If that’s accurate, the Ukrainian forces have created a pocket in which they have dangerously exposed flanks. Better hope the Russians are retreating as a Russian counterattack along those two flanks could result in encirclement very quickly.
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A little bit hidden, but nevertheless pretty important (From Glavcom.ua)
ЗСУ взяли в полон російського підполковника
У ході звільнення від окупантів Балаклії на Харківщині українські військові взяли в полон бойовиків рашистського спеціального загону швидкого реагування (СОБР). Як пізніше з’ясувалося, до рук ЗСУ потрапив російський підполковник Андрій Сичевой, який керував угрупуванням «Запад». Інформацію про це підтвердив ексвіцепрезидент НАЕК «Енергоатом» Олександр Ковтуненко.
Як раніше повідомлялося, у Балаклії Харківської області ЗСУ взяли в полон кількох ворогів на чолі зі своїм командиром. Серед трофеїв ЗСУ також документи окупантів і форма.Roughly translated: During the liberation from the occupiers of Balaklia in Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainian military captured militants of the racist special rapid response unit (SOBR). As it turned out later, the Russian Lt. Col. Andriy Sychevoi, who led the "Zapad" group, fell into the hands of the Armed Forces. Oleksandr Kovtunenko, ex-vice president of Energoatom NAEC, confirmed this information.
As previously reported, in Balaklia of the Kharkiv region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured several enemies, led by their commander. Among the trophies of the Armed Forces are also documents of the occupiers and a uniform. -
@Wim said in The Ukraine war thread:
A little bit hidden, but nevertheless pretty important (From Glavcom.ua)
Some skepticism as to whether this is really Sychevoi.
This may be one of those "too good to be true" things. I hope it is the case, but I'll remain skeptical - for now.
Thread:
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of September 9. Ukrainian
"President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi stated on September 8 that Ukrainian forces liberated over 1,000 square kilometers between September 1-8 – a day before Ukrainian forces reached the southern approach to Kupyansk and the Oskil River on September 9.[1] Ukrainian forces are likely clearing pockets of disorganized Russian forces caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance to Kupyansk, Izyum, and the Oskil River, given the influx of observed pictures of Russian prisoners of war in the past 48 hours."
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Gradually then suddenly…..
https://samf.substack.com/p/gradually-then-suddenly?r=17wfy3&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.
Just as Renauda foresaw.
"Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat.
"Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April."
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@Catseye3 the Institute for the Study of War's assessments have always struck me as, though probably objective, as very restrained and careful. Not that that's a bad thing of course.
But to read words like "routing," "collapsing," "not a controlled withdrawal," and "hurriedly fleeing" is amazing.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive. The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution from the brilliant Canadian war strategist Renauda -- "
No, wait. Correction:
" -- from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS."
