The Ukraine war thread
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wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 18:02 last edited by
Speaking of Lawrence, here’s Lawrence Freedman’s most recent Situation Report on the war in Ukraine:
https://samf.substack.com/p/what-should-ukraine-do-next?utm_medium=web
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wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 19:33 last edited by Mik
Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.
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Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.
wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 19:40 last edited by@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
The question is Ukrainian manpower
Indeed. I've seen reports that Russia has sustained >300K casualties. Considering the size of their military, that's not crippling (except, perhaps, in public opinion).
Ukraine can't bear that kind of loss, and Russia will continue to throw troops into the grinder.
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Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.
wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 20:23 last edited byThis morning in a Zoom scrum between friends and former colleagues, we parsed through Freedman’s report. One of our number with considerably more experience in these matters than I, expressed his concern that he senses a growing risk of fraying in team Kyiv as to what and how to adjust strategy while at the same time maintaining the necessary messaging to manage expectations on multiple fronts and levels.
I suspect his concern is well founded.
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wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 21:20 last edited by
It's a lot to maintain that fighting spirit as the Russian onslaught, incompetent though it may be, continues to wear them down.
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wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 21:22 last edited by
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wrote on 30 Nov 2023, 21:24 last edited by
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wrote on 1 Dec 2023, 17:17 last edited by
Yesterday T. E. Lawrence just smiled, today it’s sardonic laughter:
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wrote on 1 Dec 2023, 17:21 last edited by
Smart. Ukraine cannot kill enough Russians to stop the war, but an ill-equipped army can't accomplish much of anything except get itself killed.
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wrote on 1 Dec 2023, 21:34 last edited by Renauda 12 Jan 2023, 21:35
More meat for the grinder….
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67592803
And somehow NATO is to blame.
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wrote on 1 Dec 2023, 23:14 last edited by
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334454/russian-armed-forces-personnel/
Even if the Ukrainian claim of 300K casualties is inflated by a factor of two, it's still a big hit.
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wrote on 2 Dec 2023, 22:15 last edited by
A diplomatic failure for Russia:
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wrote on 2 Dec 2023, 22:35 last edited by
It would appear Russia does not fear isolation.
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A diplomatic failure for Russia:
wrote on 3 Dec 2023, 00:13 last edited by@Wim
The losses are significant from the Kremlin’s point of view in that it surely feels it has a right to entitlement to have a voting representative on both agencies’ governing bodies.Big diplomatic win for Ukraine, EU and NATO.
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@Wim
The losses are significant from the Kremlin’s point of view in that it surely feels it has a right to entitlement to have a voting representative on both agencies’ governing bodies.Big diplomatic win for Ukraine, EU and NATO.
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wrote on 3 Dec 2023, 11:41 last edited by
Here's what might help Putin out of office. Not sure where he's getting the cash for this expansion.
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wrote on 3 Dec 2023, 18:51 last edited by
The average age of a Ukraine soldier is in the forties. Putin is playing a war of attrition, using bodies instead of equipment.
Biden straddled the fence too long. Not the right equipment, not enough equipment, too many restrictions on use.
Almost as if he was fighting a proxy war, trying to simply bleed the Russians.
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wrote on 3 Dec 2023, 21:54 last edited by
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wrote on 8 Dec 2023, 22:27 last edited by
Another diplomatic failure for Russia:
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wrote on 8 Dec 2023, 22:42 last edited by
We’ll see how long it takes for the Kremlin to withdraw its “peacekeepers” from the area.