The Ukraine war thread

[Renauda]

Speaking of Lawrence, here’s Lawrence Freedman’s most recent Situation Report on the war in Ukraine:

https://samf.substack.com/p/what-should-ukraine-do-next?utm_medium=web

[Mik]

Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.

[George K]

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

The question is Ukrainian manpower

Indeed. I've seen reports that Russia has sustained >300K casualties. Considering the size of their military, that's not crippling (except, perhaps, in public opinion).

Ukraine can't bear that kind of loss, and Russia will continue to throw troops into the grinder.

[Renauda]

@Mik

This morning in a Zoom scrum between friends and former colleagues, we parsed through Freedman’s report. One of our number with considerably more experience in these matters than I, expressed his concern that he senses a growing risk of fraying in team Kyiv as to what and how to adjust strategy while at the same time maintaining the necessary messaging to manage expectations on multiple fronts and levels.

I suspect his concern is well founded.

[Mik]

It's a lot to maintain that fighting spirit as the Russian onslaught, incompetent though it may be, continues to wear them down.

[Mik]

Speaking of Russian competence...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-are-being-blown-up-by-their-own-minefields-because-their-leaders-won-t-say-where-they-are-ukraine-says/ar-AA1kMvEt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d3301936c16f4c89be763761bf1b15fa&ei=115

[George K]

[Renauda]

Yesterday T. E. Lawrence just smiled, today it’s sardonic laughter:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67593041

[Mik]

Smart. Ukraine cannot kill enough Russians to stop the war, but an ill-equipped army can't accomplish much of anything except get itself killed.

[Renauda]

More meat for the grinder….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67592803

And somehow NATO is to blame.

[George K]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334454/russian-armed-forces-personnel/

Even if the Ukrainian claim of 300K casualties is inflated by a factor of two, it's still a big hit.

[Wim]

A diplomatic failure for Russia:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/02/ukraine-outmaneuvers-russia-at-osce-in-chemical-weapons-maritime-agencies/

[Mik]

It would appear Russia does not fear isolation.

[Renauda]

@Wim
The losses are significant from the Kremlin’s point of view in that it surely feels it has a right to entitlement to have a voting representative on both agencies’ governing bodies.

Big diplomatic win for Ukraine, EU and NATO.

[Wim]

@Renauda I suppose Lavrov felt pretty uneasy. Who else is to be blamed for this debacle?

[Mik]

Here's what might help Putin out of office. Not sure where he's getting the cash for this expansion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-orders-russian-armed-forces-personnel-increase-of-170-000/ar-AA1kTUtQ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=138bcec0f1bd4d798538c5f270b2d1c3&ei=17

[Jolly]

The average age of a Ukraine soldier is in the forties. Putin is playing a war of attrition, using bodies instead of equipment.

Biden straddled the fence too long. Not the right equipment, not enough equipment, too many restrictions on use.

Almost as if he was fighting a proxy war, trying to simply bleed the Russians.

[Wim]

Speaking of attrition:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/03/frontline-report-russian-soldiers-refuse-to-attack-dnipro-islands-as-ukrainians-maintain-bridgehead-across-the-river/

[Wim]

Another diplomatic failure for Russia:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/08/armenia-azerbaijan-breakthrough-signals-end-of-russias-south-caucasus-influence/

[Renauda]

We’ll see how long it takes for the Kremlin to withdraw its “peacekeepers” from the area.