The Ukraine war thread
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T. E. Lawrence smiled:
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T. E. Lawrence smiled:
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Speaking of Lawrence, here’s Lawrence Freedman’s most recent Situation Report on the war in Ukraine:
https://samf.substack.com/p/what-should-ukraine-do-next?utm_medium=web
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Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
The question is Ukrainian manpower
Indeed. I've seen reports that Russia has sustained >300K casualties. Considering the size of their military, that's not crippling (except, perhaps, in public opinion).
Ukraine can't bear that kind of loss, and Russia will continue to throw troops into the grinder.
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Good article, if not cheery. I think the major point is decisive victory is unlikely for either nation, but Russia's economy is so much smaller than the West's. The question is Ukrainian manpower. Weapons are important but you have to preserve the people to operate them.
This morning in a Zoom scrum between friends and former colleagues, we parsed through Freedman’s report. One of our number with considerably more experience in these matters than I, expressed his concern that he senses a growing risk of fraying in team Kyiv as to what and how to adjust strategy while at the same time maintaining the necessary messaging to manage expectations on multiple fronts and levels.
I suspect his concern is well founded.
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Yesterday T. E. Lawrence just smiled, today it’s sardonic laughter:
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More meat for the grinder….
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67592803
And somehow NATO is to blame.
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https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334454/russian-armed-forces-personnel/
Even if the Ukrainian claim of 300K casualties is inflated by a factor of two, it's still a big hit.
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A diplomatic failure for Russia:
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@Wim
The losses are significant from the Kremlin’s point of view in that it surely feels it has a right to entitlement to have a voting representative on both agencies’ governing bodies.Big diplomatic win for Ukraine, EU and NATO.
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Here's what might help Putin out of office. Not sure where he's getting the cash for this expansion.
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The average age of a Ukraine soldier is in the forties. Putin is playing a war of attrition, using bodies instead of equipment.
Biden straddled the fence too long. Not the right equipment, not enough equipment, too many restrictions on use.
Almost as if he was fighting a proxy war, trying to simply bleed the Russians.
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