The Ukraine war thread

[Jolly]

As I see it...

1. USA
2. North America
3. Tie. South America/Europe
4. Australia
5. South Pacific, including Japan, the Phillipines and South Korea.
6. Everything else.

And past #3, I'll bend like Gumby.

I have an open mind.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

As I see it...

1. USA
2. North America
3. Tie. South America/Europe
4. Australia
5. South Pacific, including Japan, the Phillipines and South Korea.
6. Everything else.

And past #3, I'll bend like Gumby.

I have an open mind.

I think a lot of people would argue that Russia's machinations have a direct and material impact on numbers 1-3.

[Wim]

@Aqua-Letifer You're a little bit wrong. Depending on what Russia will/won't achieve, China will adapt its strategies to what the USA will/won't do.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Wim said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer You're a little bit wrong. Depending on what Russia will/won't achieve, China will adapt its strategies to what the USA will/won't do.

Well, there's that, too.

[Jolly]

@Wim said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer You're a little bit wrong. Depending on what Russia will/won't achieve, China will adapt its strategies to what the USA will/won't do.

Starting to wonder about China. The Belt and Road looks like it needs suspenders...

[Mik]

I think China's plans are somewhat based on an assumption that the US is a power in decline. I think they are wrong in that. Our innate ability to right our own ship is something they lack.

[Renauda]

@Mik

What you refer to as innate ability, is the fact that the US has very robust institutions of democratic governance that have been built up and improved upon over time. Such is not the case for Russia and China.

[Mik]

Spot on.

[Mik]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-preparing-russians-for-defeats-in-ukraine/ar-AA1blsKw?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f5f9c7c659494501cc4c03ba113fdc6c&ei=55

[George K]

Bakhmut has fallen to the Russians.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-important-is-claimed-capture-by-russias-wagner-group-ukraines-bakhmut-2023-05-20/

[Jolly]

The Russians are getting better.

OTOH, Ukranian pilots shocked the USAF recently. After rolling them through a brief F-16 simulator training, the Air Force thinks they can have the Ukrainians flight tested in the F-16 and combat ready in 120 days.

[Mik]

@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:

Bakhmut has fallen to the Russians.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-important-is-claimed-capture-by-russias-wagner-group-ukraines-bakhmut-2023-05-20/

It was by all accounts a Pyrrhic victory.

[Jolly]

Yes, but what it does give them, is a victory, of which they have had very few of late.

It also puts the Russians into artillery range of two larger, more industrialized cities.

[George K]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

It also puts the Russians into artillery range of two larger, more industrialized cities.

"If the enemy is in range, so are you."

[Renauda]

Prigozhin and the Kremlin can say what they want and, as the saying in Russian goes, try to make candy out of a turd.

My hunch is that Bakhmut has not fallen to the Russians. Instead the Russians in Bakhmut have been surrounded on all sides by advancing Ukrainian forces.

[George K]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

My hunch is that Bakhmut has not fallen to the Russians. Instead the Russians in Bakhmut have been surrounded on all sides by advancing Ukrainian forces.

[Mik]

An exercise in futility

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/this-map-shows-how-little-ground-russian-forces-gained-over-5-months-at-a-cost-of-100-000-dead-and-wounded/ar-AA1byQMT?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b5575e05c2e041a0b750442dc4678c51&ei=35

[George K]

@Mik I wonder what Russian casualties have been in the same time period.

[Mik]

@George-K Article says US estimates 100K Russian casualties, dead and wounded.

[Mik]

Here's where Ukraine is aiming the offensive. Makes perfect sense. All are longer supply lines for the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/conditions-created-for-offensive-as-ukraine-engage-in-large-scale-operation-in-three-identified-directions/ar-AA1bAaCR?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=68287780197248de9a78d7164a03a5c6&ei=17