The Ukraine war thread
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Option B is not an option for either Ukraine or future European security. Any consideration of an outcome that would result in a neutral Ukrainian rump state is long past. Besides in the Kremlin playbook, neutrality is meaningless and in the case of Ukraine, the term only confirms that in Moscow’s mind, Ukraine has no right to exist in the first place.
wrote on 13 May 2023, 16:34 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Option B is not an option for either Ukraine or future European security. Any consideration of an outcome that would result in a neutral Ukrainian rump state is long past. Besides in the Kremlin playbook, neutrality is meaningless and in the case of Ukraine, the term only confirms that in Moscow’s mind, Ukraine has no right to exist in the first place.
Right. What I was trying to say was, Option A appears to be a more definitive loss for Russia. Option B would create a lot more uncertainty, so because the outcome would be more ambiguous, hey, might mean Russia could win some, who knows. Wouldn't that be preferable in Putin's mind over certain draw/defeat?
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wrote on 14 May 2023, 11:36 last edited by
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wrote on 14 May 2023, 12:02 last edited by
That can't be good.
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wrote on 14 May 2023, 15:20 last edited by
Not at all.
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wrote on 14 May 2023, 18:08 last edited by
A bad day for the Russian Air Force.
The Russian Air Force appears to have had one of its worst days of the war in more than a year on Saturday. While details remain limited and are likely to change, it appears Russia lost two Mi-8 Hip helicopters, a Su-34 Fullback strike fighter, and a Su-35 Flanker-E, with no survivors. What makes all this especially troubling for the Russian Air Force, is that all these losses happened in its own country, in areas not too far from the border with Ukraine.
All four aircraft came down in Bryansk Oblast, well within Russian territory opposite northeast Ukraine’s Chernihiv Oblast. Video shows one of the Mi-8s breaking up after what looks as if a missile hits it near the town of Klintsy, about 50 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border.
Some are saying friendly fire.
So, there you go.
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wrote on 15 May 2023, 12:15 last edited by
Wagner Chief Denies Offering Russian Troop Positions to Ukraine
The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin called reports that he offered information on Russian troop positions to Ukraine "laughable" and a result of a possible smear campaign.
The Washington Post reported earlier Monday that Prigozhin had offered to reveal Russian troop positions to Ukrainian military intelligence in exchange for Kyiv’s withdrawal from Bakhmut.
Wagner's fighters have been at the forefront of Russia's monthslong effort to capture the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, whose value is more symbolic than strategic.
Prigozhin laughed off The Washington Post's report in an audio message posted on Telegram.
"Reading this is of course nice. It means I am not only fighting for Russia but Zelensky is also fulfilling my orders," Prigozhin said.
"This is laughable."
He said "people from Rublyovka" — a luxurious Moscow suburb home to the Russian elite — could be behind the allegations.
"Of course they will pour as much s*** on me as they can," he said.
The Washington Post report, based on classified Pentagon documents leaked on the gaming platform Discord, said Prigozhin made the offer to Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, GUR, in late January amid intelligence indicating high losses and low morale among Wagner troops.
The Pentagon leak did not specify which Russian troop positions Prigozhin had offered to pass on.
Kyiv was said to have rejected Prigozhin’s proposals due to a lack of trust in his intentions. The Washington Post cited an unnamed U.S. official as saying Washington shared Kyiv’s doubts.
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wrote on 16 May 2023, 13:13 last edited by
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wrote on 16 May 2023, 14:03 last edited by
Russian replacements for Wagner troops are bolting.
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wrote on 16 May 2023, 14:09 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Patreas' thoughts:
https://themessenger.com/news/petraeus-ukraine-counteroffensive-likely-to-set-russians-back
"Virtually no chance for Russian "victory"."
That's a pretty bold statement.
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wrote on 16 May 2023, 16:15 last edited by
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@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Patreas' thoughts:
https://themessenger.com/news/petraeus-ukraine-counteroffensive-likely-to-set-russians-back
"Virtually no chance for Russian "victory"."
That's a pretty bold statement.
wrote on 17 May 2023, 01:02 last edited by@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Patreas' thoughts:
https://themessenger.com/news/petraeus-ukraine-counteroffensive-likely-to-set-russians-back
"Virtually no chance for Russian "victory"."
That's a pretty bold statement.
Unless Donald J Churchill or one of his ilk takes over. Patreas qualified it to say it was contingent on continued western support.
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wrote on 17 May 2023, 01:43 last edited by
Ah, you're beginning to doubt.
Good.
Trump said something at the townhall the other night about the first mission being to stop the killing. To me, that's an armistice.
Right now, depending on territory, that might be doable.
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Ah, you're beginning to doubt.
Good.
Trump said something at the townhall the other night about the first mission being to stop the killing. To me, that's an armistice.
Right now, depending on territory, that might be doable.
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@Jolly I’m beginning to doubt that the party of Reagan isn’t going to actively assist in rebuilding the Russian Empire.
Please prove me wrong.
wrote on 17 May 2023, 03:53 last edited by Renauda@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Jolly I’m beginning to doubt that the party of Reagan isn’t going to actively assist in rebuilding the Russian Empire.
Please prove me wrong.
Your doubts are genuine, I share the same concern. I think the scenario Vindman describes here is not in the least far fetched:
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@Jolly I’m beginning to doubt that the party of Reagan isn’t going to actively assist in rebuilding the Russian Empire.
Please prove me wrong.
wrote on 17 May 2023, 11:04 last edited by Doctor Phibes@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Jolly I’m beginning to doubt that the party of Reagan isn’t going to actively assist in rebuilding the Russian Empire.
Please prove me wrong.
I don't understand why Trump, Carlson etc. would act like this. Apart from being morally repugnant it makes no sense at all.
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wrote on 17 May 2023, 11:10 last edited by
I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.
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wrote on 17 May 2023, 12:39 last edited by
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.
The 1930's are supposed to be a warning, not a guide.
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wrote on 17 May 2023, 12:47 last edited by
Putin doesn't have the economic base to recreate German aggression in the 30's and 40's, but smacking this invasion down hard will make future adventures less likely, especially if the west hangs together.
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wrote on 17 May 2023, 12:54 last edited by
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.
I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.
I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.
wrote on 17 May 2023, 15:05 last edited by@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.
I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.
If they don't, though, is it worth watching it from afar because we shouldn't have been the ones to do the legwork?