For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact
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I mentioned this in another thread, but thought it was interesting. Copper, one of your (correct) questions that you ask is what is the economic impact and if that will be worse that what we are doing.
Rand Corp. has put together a model that looks at that. Fun to play with - you can assume different strengths of lockdown and see the medical and economic impact.
In the tools section, I believe that they assign approx. a value of $10MM USD of economic impact for each person in the US. That is the part of the study that to me is a bit suspect, as a 90 year old person will probably not have that much impact in their remaining life, while someone 20 year old has more.
(But I do not know the exact details of how they came up with that number, so maybe it is an average.)
Keeping a strict lockdown mostly is the smart economic decision also. The additional dead people due to less lockdown will have a greater economic impact than the economic loss due to the lockdown.
Interesting to play with.
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@rand said >
Key Findings
States that relax intervention measures in early May can expect to see
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higher projected cases and deaths by September 1
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rebounds in patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units
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rebounds that come sooner and can be more severe the further restrictions are relaxed
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greater improvements in the economy the more restrictions are relaxed.
States that relax restrictions from June 1 can expect to see
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smaller increases in cases and deaths by September 1, compared with opening sooner
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patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units rebound later and at lower numbers
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smaller improvements in economic indicators.
Save your people, lose your money
Save your money, lose your peopleAll the people with no money is bad
No people with all the money might also be badPick your goal and go for it
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@rand said >
Key Findings
States that relax intervention measures in early May can expect to see
-
higher projected cases and deaths by September 1
-
rebounds in patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units
-
rebounds that come sooner and can be more severe the further restrictions are relaxed
-
greater improvements in the economy the more restrictions are relaxed.
States that relax restrictions from June 1 can expect to see
-
smaller increases in cases and deaths by September 1, compared with opening sooner
-
patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units rebound later and at lower numbers
-
smaller improvements in economic indicators.
Save your people, lose your money
Save your money, lose your peopleAll the people with no money is bad
No people with all the money might also be badPick your goal and go for it
The point I took from the model is that the negative economic impact from more dead people is greater than the negative economic impact from the lockdown.
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What we need is a sweet spot that doesn't exist.
I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@Mik said in For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact:
What we need is a sweet spot that doesn't exist.
I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?
I doubt anybody wants to get near the numbers regarding the economic impact of large numbers of old folk dying quickly.
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What we need is a sweet spot that doesn't exist.
I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?
@Mik said in For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact:
I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?
Yes, it breaks down the lockdown into five different classes (#1 is full open and #5 is full close). You can pick an individual state, and change the lockdown class and show what the change in death versus change in economic impact will be.
Obviously, this is not perfect, but this is the first I have see that looks at it this way.
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The lasting images will be the bread lines and food riots. We haven't even scratched the surface on the economic impact. cnn will dedicate itself to blowing this out of proportion before the election.
Is there an image of the people with the disease? Maybe the flattened curve.
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We are taking an essential trip to Madison today to visit Spruce Tree Music. I am dropping off my first ever guitar to have it assessed for repair. It experienced some pretty dramatic trauma during my college days and I never had it properly repaired. It has just gotten worse over the years and it has a lot of sentimental value that far exceeds its market value.
We have a 1:30 drop off appointment. We knock on the door, and they will come outside to meet us. Everyone will be wearing masks, have hand sanitizer, etc.
I might even evaluate a new guitar while I am there.
It will be the first time we have been out of town in a long time. It will be good to have some extended time out of the house.
Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol
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We are taking an essential trip to Madison today to visit Spruce Tree Music. I am dropping off my first ever guitar to have it assessed for repair. It experienced some pretty dramatic trauma during my college days and I never had it properly repaired. It has just gotten worse over the years and it has a lot of sentimental value that far exceeds its market value.
We have a 1:30 drop off appointment. We knock on the door, and they will come outside to meet us. Everyone will be wearing masks, have hand sanitizer, etc.
I might even evaluate a new guitar while I am there.
It will be the first time we have been out of town in a long time. It will be good to have some extended time out of the house.
Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol
@mark said:
Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol
You can never have too many guitars. I've got 3 acoustic guitars and would love to get an electric but can't find one that "speaks" to me.
Sat in a guitar store one day and must have played 50 of them. Couldn't find one that I HAD to have.
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@mark said:
Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol
You can never have too many guitars. I've got 3 acoustic guitars and would love to get an electric but can't find one that "speaks" to me.
Sat in a guitar store one day and must have played 50 of them. Couldn't find one that I HAD to have.
@Improviso said in For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact:
@mark said:
Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol
You can never have too many guitars. I've got 3 acoustic guitars and would love to get an electric but can't find one that "speaks" to me.
Sat in a guitar store one day and must have played 50 of them. Couldn't find one that I HAD to have.
Electric guitars are like two bit hookers. Any of them will get the job done, but you don't want to take any of them home.
I laugh at all the people who think the type of wood that a solid body electric guitar is made from, matters one bit to the tone it generates. It's all about comfort and the electronics. I have done similar. Played electrics from super cheap to super expensive. None of them speak to me either.
No, the guitar that is the current cause of my GAS, is this one...
The 12 fret, Larrivee C03-TE Tommy Emmanuel Signature Edition.
https://www.larrivee.com/products/c-03r-te
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OK, here's a guitar powered by that new fangled electrickery...I've got one just like it. It doesn't speak to me, it bloody shouts.
