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The New Coffee Room

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  3. For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact

For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • CopperC Offline
    CopperC Offline
    Copper
    wrote on last edited by
    #2

    @rand said >

    Key Findings

    States that relax intervention measures in early May can expect to see

    • higher projected cases and deaths by September 1

    • rebounds in patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units

    • rebounds that come sooner and can be more severe the further restrictions are relaxed

    • greater improvements in the economy the more restrictions are relaxed.

    States that relax restrictions from June 1 can expect to see

    • smaller increases in cases and deaths by September 1, compared with opening sooner

    • patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units rebound later and at lower numbers

    • smaller improvements in economic indicators.

    Save your people, lose your money
    Save your money, lose your people

    All the people with no money is bad
    No people with all the money might also be bad

    Pick your goal and go for it

    taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
    • CopperC Copper

      @rand said >

      Key Findings

      States that relax intervention measures in early May can expect to see

      • higher projected cases and deaths by September 1

      • rebounds in patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units

      • rebounds that come sooner and can be more severe the further restrictions are relaxed

      • greater improvements in the economy the more restrictions are relaxed.

      States that relax restrictions from June 1 can expect to see

      • smaller increases in cases and deaths by September 1, compared with opening sooner

      • patient numbers for hospitals and intensive care units rebound later and at lower numbers

      • smaller improvements in economic indicators.

      Save your people, lose your money
      Save your money, lose your people

      All the people with no money is bad
      No people with all the money might also be bad

      Pick your goal and go for it

      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girl
      wrote on last edited by
      #3

      @Copper

      The point I took from the model is that the negative economic impact from more dead people is greater than the negative economic impact from the lockdown.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • MikM Offline
        MikM Offline
        Mik
        wrote on last edited by Mik
        #4

        What we need is a sweet spot that doesn't exist.

        I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?

        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

        taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
        • HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote on last edited by
          #5

          @Mik said in For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact:

          What we need is a sweet spot that doesn't exist.

          I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?

          I doubt anybody wants to get near the numbers regarding the economic impact of large numbers of old folk dying quickly.

          Education is extremely important.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • MikM Mik

            What we need is a sweet spot that doesn't exist.

            I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?

            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on last edited by
            #6

            @Mik said in For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact:

            I haven't read it, but does it reflect the economic impact of a major increase in cases and deaths?

            Yes, it breaks down the lockdown into five different classes (#1 is full open and #5 is full close). You can pick an individual state, and change the lockdown class and show what the change in death versus change in economic impact will be.

            Obviously, this is not perfect, but this is the first I have see that looks at it this way.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • 89th8 Offline
              89th8 Offline
              89th
              wrote on last edited by
              #7

              It will all be a balancing act for the next 12-18 months. Partial reopening everywhere, not much air/hotel traffic, partial work/school openings, lots of online shopping, more checks from the government. 100,000+ Americans will die.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • CopperC Offline
                CopperC Offline
                Copper
                wrote on last edited by Copper
                #8

                The lasting images will be the bread lines and food riots. We haven't even scratched the surface on the economic impact. cnn will dedicate itself to blowing this out of proportion before the election.

                Is there an image of the people with the disease? Maybe the flattened curve.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • markM Offline
                  markM Offline
                  mark
                  wrote on last edited by mark
                  #9

                  We are taking an essential trip to Madison today to visit Spruce Tree Music. I am dropping off my first ever guitar to have it assessed for repair. It experienced some pretty dramatic trauma during my college days and I never had it properly repaired. It has just gotten worse over the years and it has a lot of sentimental value that far exceeds its market value.

                  We have a 1:30 drop off appointment. We knock on the door, and they will come outside to meet us. Everyone will be wearing masks, have hand sanitizer, etc.

                  I might even evaluate a new guitar while I am there.

                  It will be the first time we have been out of town in a long time. It will be good to have some extended time out of the house.

                  Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol

                  ImprovisoI 1 Reply Last reply
                  • markM mark

                    We are taking an essential trip to Madison today to visit Spruce Tree Music. I am dropping off my first ever guitar to have it assessed for repair. It experienced some pretty dramatic trauma during my college days and I never had it properly repaired. It has just gotten worse over the years and it has a lot of sentimental value that far exceeds its market value.

                    We have a 1:30 drop off appointment. We knock on the door, and they will come outside to meet us. Everyone will be wearing masks, have hand sanitizer, etc.

                    I might even evaluate a new guitar while I am there.

                    It will be the first time we have been out of town in a long time. It will be good to have some extended time out of the house.

                    Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol

                    ImprovisoI Offline
                    ImprovisoI Offline
                    Improviso
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #10

                    @mark said:

                    Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol

                    You can never have too many guitars. I've got 3 acoustic guitars and would love to get an electric but can't find one that "speaks" to me.

                    Sat in a guitar store one day and must have played 50 of them. Couldn't find one that I HAD to have.

                    We have the freedom to choose our actions, but we do not get to choose our consequences.
                    Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road you're on.

                    markM 1 Reply Last reply
                    • ImprovisoI Improviso

                      @mark said:

                      Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol

                      You can never have too many guitars. I've got 3 acoustic guitars and would love to get an electric but can't find one that "speaks" to me.

                      Sat in a guitar store one day and must have played 50 of them. Couldn't find one that I HAD to have.

                      markM Offline
                      markM Offline
                      mark
                      wrote on last edited by mark
                      #11

                      @Improviso said in For Copper (and others) - Economic Model of Virus Impact:

                      @mark said:

                      Hey! Music is essential! dammit. We will be providing a much needed economical impact. Especially if I get that new guitar! lol

                      You can never have too many guitars. I've got 3 acoustic guitars and would love to get an electric but can't find one that "speaks" to me.

                      Sat in a guitar store one day and must have played 50 of them. Couldn't find one that I HAD to have.

                      Electric guitars are like two bit hookers. Any of them will get the job done, but you don't want to take any of them home.

                      I laugh at all the people who think the type of wood that a solid body electric guitar is made from, matters one bit to the tone it generates. It's all about comfort and the electronics. I have done similar. Played electrics from super cheap to super expensive. None of them speak to me either.

                      No, the guitar that is the current cause of my GAS, is this one...

                      The 12 fret, Larrivee C03-TE Tommy Emmanuel Signature Edition.

                      https://www.larrivee.com/products/c-03r-te

                      alt text

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                        Doctor PhibesD Offline
                        Doctor Phibes
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #12

                        OK, here's a guitar powered by that new fangled electrickery...I've got one just like it. It doesn't speak to me, it bloody shouts.

                        alt text

                        I was only joking

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