What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?
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Chances that a New York DA will convince a Grand Jury to indict Trump or a Trump family member is about 100%
The chance that the indictment leads to more than a fine...I'd put that at about 15%.
In any case, right now I am pretty sure Trump wins a 2nd term and dies in office.
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Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance, who enforces New York state laws, has been conducting a criminal investigation into Trump and the Trump Organization for more than two years.
The probe originally focused on hush money payments that Trump’s former lawyer and self-described fixer Michael Cohen paid before the 2016 election to two women who said they had sexual encounters with Trump, which the president has denied.
Vance, a Democrat, has suggested in recent court filings that his probe is now broader and could focus on bank, tax and insurance fraud, as well as falsification of business records.
Republican Trump has called Vance’s case politically motivated harassment.
The case has drawn attention because of Vance’s efforts to obtain eight years of Trump’s tax returns. In July, the U.S. Supreme Court, denying Trump’s bid to keep the returns under wraps, said the president was not immune from state criminal probes while in office, but could raise other defenses to Vance’s subpoena.
Vance will likely ultimately prevail in obtaining Trump’s financial records, legal experts said.
The U.S. Justice Department has said a sitting president cannot be indicted. Vance is not bound by that policy because he is not a federal prosecutor, but he may still have been reluctant to charge Trump because of uncertainty over whether the case was constitutional, said Harry Sandick, a former prosecutor in New York.
“Those concerns will disappear when Trump leaves office,” Sandick said.
The investigation poses a threat to Trump, said Corey Brettschneider, a professor of political science at Brown University.
“The fact that they have issued the subpoenas and have litigated all the way to the Supreme Court suggests that this is a very serious criminal investigation of the president,” Brettschneider said.
The good news for Trump is Biden has said a DoJ investigation of him after he leaves office would be bad for democracy.
But NY state will likely be a real problem for the Trumps. Assuming they stay in the country.
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He mentioned that if he loses he might leave the country.
Where I’m going with this thread is they have a lot of legal problems that were essentially on hold while he was in office. All that changes in January. The case being pursued by Vance is criminal.
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Maybe he’ll start his own country! Get some investors together and buy a large island...
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Maybe he’ll start his own country! Get some investors together and buy a large island...
@LuFins-Dad said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
Maybe he’ll start his own country! Get some investors together and buy a large island...
Which investors will still trust Trump with their money?
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Maybe one way to help in answering this question -- since we can't really know for certain what will happen -- is to think about his motives for seeking a second term so energetically. His first term can't have been a joyride for him, at least from the bits we the public were allowed to see.
There were many moments of humiliation for him, not something he handles well. (Remember the booing at the baseball park?) I would not have been surprised if he had chosen not to run again, on some pretext.
It could be that his pursuit of re-election was fueled by his certain knowledge of his fate in New York.
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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I read this thread and am absolutely amazed at how crazy the Left truly are.
Sock has been wrong about everything he's said for the last 4 years, but he just keeps on saying it. Same with Ax. But they have an excuse - they're both idiots. Jon can't use that as an excuse.
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Maybe one way to help in answering this question -- since we can't really know for certain what will happen -- is to think about his motives for seeking a second term so energetically. His first term can't have been a joyride for him, at least from the bits we the public were allowed to see.
There were many moments of humiliation for him, not something he handles well. (Remember the booing at the baseball park?) I would not have been surprised if he had chosen not to run again, on some pretext.
It could be that his pursuit of re-election was fueled by his certain knowledge of his fate in New York.
@Catseye3 said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
is to think about his motives for seeking a second term so energetically.
I think it it just the ego of power - not only for President Trump but for anyone in that position.
For a rational mind, the job of President is terrible. Half the people hate you no matter what you do. Lots of things are outside your control. There is never any “down time”. You really don’t have a life. Etc etc
But the aspect of power is very flattering and strong. I think that is what “drives” these people.
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Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
@jon-nyc said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
yeah but the tie of Hunter to Joe was the problematic piece.
Just something to think about in the pursuit of the Trumps. Would be impossible to avoid Hunter and I suspect the evidence is not just overwhelming but easy to prosecute quickly.
I’d say leave them all alone for the sake of the country.
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That’s Biden’s view. The doj going after Trump won’t happen for that reason.
The Trump org in NY is what’s being investigated. Wouldn’t be shocking to see Don Jr get some bracelets and a perp walk out of it but it’s by no means a certainty.
But I’ll move my over/under to 16 months.
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That’s Biden’s view. The doj going after Trump won’t happen for that reason.
The Trump org in NY is what’s being investigated. Wouldn’t be shocking to see Don Jr get some bracelets and a perp walk out of it but it’s by no means a certainty.
But I’ll move my over/under to 16 months.
@jon-nyc said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
That’s Biden’s view. The doj going after Trump won’t happen for that reason.
The Trump org in NY is what’s being investigated. Wouldn’t be shocking to see Don Jr get some bracelets and a perp walk out of it but it’s by no means a certainty.
But I’ll move my over/under to 16 months.
Oh I get the difference. I guess I’m old school about well placed phone calls. SDNY has been bad ass, we will see how authentic that is.
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Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
@jon-nyc said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
I suspect over $100M has been spent investigating the Trumps.
Helluva waste of money.
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@jon-nyc said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
Pass the popcorn, please.
It's sort of cute watching you get all excited over something you read in the Washington Post, Jon. It's as though you actually believe stuff you read frm there lol.
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Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
@jon-nyc said in What’s your over/under on a Trump family indictment?:
Except the Trump organization is under active criminal investigation and has been for 2 years.
Hunter has been investigated by Giuliani and Carlson since late October.
Since no one else revisited this one...we now know there is criminal investigation of Hunter for some time now.
I predict indictments come out of Hunter's case first, and that Hunter falls afoul of the law before anyone in the Trump camp.
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Scotus denies Trump’s case.
His accountants must now turn over financial records to Vance.
