Daddy can I PLEASE have a pardon?

[jon-nyc]

[89th]

Tweeting from prison?

[jon-nyc]

Indirectly. Though I imagine it’s just his mom. Same person writing his pro se briefs (she’s a Stanford law professor).

[taiwan_girl]

@89th said:

Tweeting from prison?

Proabably. I have heard that a lot of times, the guards, etc. overlook prisoners having phones because they figure that if they are on their phones, they will be less of a problem and causing trouble elsewhere. LOL

[89th]

Same logic works for kids btw

[jon-nyc]

Pretty pretty please????

[89th]

Almost makes me want to shift all my accounts into super low risk mode. Let the recession crash, then buy back in.

But time in the market beats timing the market..........

[jon-nyc]

Problem with timing the market is you gotta be right twice. When to sell, and when to get back in.

[Horace]

I mean, if you time the top, you don't have to time the bottom to benefit. The second timing only increases or decreases the benefit.

The real issue is that a high market is not the indicator of a top that it intuitively seems like it should be.

[Horace]

Brings to mind a funny irony presented by Buffet over the past many years. One of the more oft-repeated Buffetisms is "time in the market beats timing the market". Meanwhile, his massive cash pile is him, timing the market. Do as I say, not as I do...

And his advice to just invest in the S&P 500 because individual stock picks are like gambling against the casino, has been garbage for 20 years now.

[jon-nyc]

Funny though the S&P500 has beaten Berkshire Hathaway over the last 20 years.

[Horace]

Yes BRK has been a garbage stock for a long time. And it would have been way worse if Buffet hadn't heavily invested in an individual stock, AAPL, about 10 years ago.

[Horace]

ChatGPT estimates that BRK's stock price would be 15-30% lower had Buffet kept in t-bills what he invested in AAPL.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah he would have done much worse in t-bills than in stocks. That’s true over probably any 20 year period in history.