The Ukraine war thread
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A long but very interesting piece on recent military and political events. The analysis on how European diplomacy is functioning is insightful.
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Angela, forgive me...
Putin never lies.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/28/angela-forgive-me-putin-denies-intentionally-scaring-merkel-with-dog-a87164 -
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Naval drone downs Russian helicopter:
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
Wow....
Suicide drones? WTF are suicide drones? It’s a guided missile….
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Russia’s Imperial Mindset: Understanding The Roots Of The Ukraine War
Much of the discussion is tied up in American domestic politics, as it trails the last presidential election. Indeed, this war should have never happened, and whatever “Russia explainers” might say going forward, there should be no doubt that the horrendous cost in Ukrainian and Russian lives is squarely on Vladimir Putin and his enablers in the Kremlin.
What Putin Wants in Ukraine
But taking a principled stance will not move the needle toward a durable armistice. In fact, by all indications, Moscow is not interested in anything short of an all-out surrender by Kyiv, including the foreclosure of any prospects for Ukraine’s membership in NATO, the de facto disbandment of the Ukrainian armed forces, and consigning Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence. Putin has no real incentive to negotiate in good faith because he believes that at this stage, he is winning, and unfortunately, he is right.
For three years, the US and Europe prioritized escalation management that left Ukraine with no clear path forward to an equitable negotiation for a lasting peace, or at the very least, an enduring armistice with Russia.
Today, Putin continues to signal that there is no deal he would accept that would not be tantamount to a victory for Russia because he believes he can defeat Ukraine at an acceptable cost, and thus deliver a devastating blow to US interests across the globe, undermining the system the United States and its democratic allies put in place post-Cold War. For three years of this war the West has offered no strategy for victory, while the horrendous attrition on the battlefield, combined with the mass flight of civilians from the front, has left Ukraine with roughly one-fourth of the population of the Russian Federation.
To appreciate the scope of the bloodletting and the attendant emigration from Ukraine, consider that on the day of its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 Ukraine had some 52 million citizens, on the eve of Russia’s second invasion in 2022 the number was just under 40 million, while today there are somewhere between 27-30 million people left in the country. So, while much of the debate in Washington has centered around whether to continue to supply Ukraine with money, weapons, and munitions, the stark reality is that the country is beginning to run out of people.
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For three years, the US and Europe prioritized escalation management that left Ukraine with no clear path forward to an equitable negotiation for a lasting peace, or at the very least, an enduring armistice with Russia.
For a guy who placed all the blame on Putin a paragraph or two earlier, this sure seems like a backtrack.
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Coming to a theatre near you:
In June 2024, Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general and national security adviser to former President Donald Trump, presented a plan he co-authored with the former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz that proposed halting the delivery of U.S. weapons to Ukraine if Kyiv didn’t enter into peace talks with Moscow—but also warning Moscow that if it refused to negotiate with Kyiv, Washington would increase its support for Ukraine. About five months later, President-elect Trump named Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. “The makeup of the war has expanded,” Kellogg said in an interview, “and it’s time to put it back in a box.”
In response to Kellogg’s nomination, Konstantin Malofeyev, a Russian oligarch with ties to the Kremlin, told a reporter for the Financial Times what he thought the likely Russian response would be. “Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it,” Malofeyev said. “That’d be the whole negotiation.
Full article:
