It’s starting

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

RCP just went Trump +.1 on the popular vote.

More:

[Jolly]

Close race. Dems generally have a good ground game. I'm still officially nervous.

[Horace]

I wonder if the swing state odds match up mathematically to the overall result odds.

[LuFins Dad]

It’s not close, we just can’t be sure who is the beneficiary of the large polling error.

The lack of outlier polls kind of points yo the fact that something’s wrong.

[89th]

I'm more concerned that the chart maker had one job. WTF

[George K]

[jon-nyc]

Going for the photo finish.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Going for the photo finish.

Yeah… Looks like Tim Walz’s genetic code…

[LuFins Dad]

[taiwan_girl]

https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-shocking-iowa-poll-means-somebody

Another such maverick is Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co. (Selzer and NYT/Siena are our two highest-rated pollsters.) As my former colleague Clare Malone wrote in 2016, Selzer — like NYT/Siena — has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right. In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status.

So Selzer’s new poll of Iowa tonight was highly anticipated by polling junkies, despite Iowa being unlikely to be a decisive state. In June, Selzer’s poll for the Des Moines Register showed Donald Trump with an 18-point lead over Joe Biden in Iowa — surprisingly big, even considering how much Iowa has trended red over the years. (It voted for Trump by 8 points in 2020.)

In September, her survey had Kamala Harris just 4 points behind Trump — considered an outlier at the time.

Her new poll? It shows the state trending even bluer, with Harris leading in Iowa 47-44.

I have been every so often looking at the virtualtout polling, which is based on betting markets, etc. referrenced here:

https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/topic/34614/interesting-prediction-website-for-upcoming-election?_=1730715566557

I dont see why VP Harris is showing a sudden increase in poll numbers. I still think that President Trump will win.

[LuFins Dad]

Welp…

[Jolly]

Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

[Axtremus]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

Wonder how much the NYT poll affected the graph?

Click the link ... ol' Nate and his people tell you what polls most affected their last model update.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Horace]

Paywall.

[LuFins Dad]

@Horace said in It’s starting:

Paywall.

That parts not behind the paywall. Here’s a sheet with the influences for the National Popular Vote Count- https://static.dwcdn.net/data/6dLqU.csv

Here’s PA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/uyZgi.csv

Michigan - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/p0MR1.csv

AZ - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/2TzV1.csv

NV - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/FwSWu.csv

NC - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/LW63I.csv

GA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/zLfhh.csv

WI - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PMbPp.csv

It’s all useless though. Either all the polls have for the first time in history gotten EVERYTHING absolutely correct (which has never happened once by even one pollster) or they are all very flawed and have p-hacked their polls to show a 50/50 shot. The fact that there are no outliers at all strongly indicate the latter.

I will lay out a moderate bottle of whiskey that the results are well outside the margin of error. 4% separation in the swing states or more.

[Copper]

Who benefits from polls with false information?

[Jolly]

Kamala-lama-ding-dong.

[LuFins Dad]

Internals are typically weighted towards the boss and can be far worse in accuracy than the published polls, but I can’t help but wonder what the internals are looking like to influence their decisions. Kamala has completely shifted again the last two days and hasn’t even mentioned Trump’s name once.

Now that could be the strategy from the beginning. Start with joy, then paint Trump as Hitler, then close positive… But it feels more like switching tactics since the last one didn’t work.

[Jolly]

The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

[George K]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

Is that the Selzer poll?