Is a longer train more likely to derail?
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tl;dr
Yes.
Replacing two 50-car trains with one 100-car train raises the aggregate odds of derailment by 11 percent, the study concluded—even accounting for an overall decrease in the number of trains running. A 200-car train would have a 24 percent increase compared with four 50-car trains, according to the study team’s calculations.
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Simple statistics say yes, even if there’s not a cumulative effect (which there is).
If every car has a percentage chance of derailing, let’s call it X, then a 5 car train will have a 5X chance of derailing. A 50 car train would have a 50X chance…
But more than that, each train car adds mass to the overall train, which acts as a force multiplier for every car you add.
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Simple statistics say yes, even if there’s not a cumulative effect (which there is).
If every car has a percentage chance of derailing, let’s call it X, then a 5 car train will have a 5X chance of derailing. A 50 car train would have a 50X chance…
But more than that, each train car adds mass to the overall train, which acts as a force multiplier for every car you add.
@LuFins-Dad said in Is a longer train more likely to derail?:
Simple statistics say yes, even if there’s not a cumulative effect (which there is).
If every car has a percentage chance of derailing, let’s call it X, then a 5 car train will have a 5X chance of derailing. A 50 car train would have a 50X chance…
But more than that, each train car adds mass to the overall train, which acts as a force multiplier for every car you add.
Hmmm....
Not sure if that works. If you take 5 INDIVIDUAL cars, then, of course, they would have 5 times the chance of derailing of a single car.
But, it's not that simple.
There are other forces - pull on the couplers? - that might, might, have a stabilizing effect preventing the derailment of any individual car in a long train.
Does increased mass increase the risk of derailment? Once again, one might argue that an increased mass has other unrecognized effects. Is a heavier car more stable on the rails?
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@LuFins-Dad said in Is a longer train more likely to derail?:
Simple statistics say yes, even if there’s not a cumulative effect (which there is).
If every car has a percentage chance of derailing, let’s call it X, then a 5 car train will have a 5X chance of derailing. A 50 car train would have a 50X chance…
But more than that, each train car adds mass to the overall train, which acts as a force multiplier for every car you add.
Hmmm....
Not sure if that works. If you take 5 INDIVIDUAL cars, then, of course, they would have 5 times the chance of derailing of a single car.
But, it's not that simple.
There are other forces - pull on the couplers? - that might, might, have a stabilizing effect preventing the derailment of any individual car in a long train.
Does increased mass increase the risk of derailment? Once again, one might argue that an increased mass has other unrecognized effects. Is a heavier car more stable on the rails?
@George-K said in Is a longer train more likely to derail?:
@LuFins-Dad said in Is a longer train more likely to derail?:
Simple statistics say yes, even if there’s not a cumulative effect (which there is).
If every car has a percentage chance of derailing, let’s call it X, then a 5 car train will have a 5X chance of derailing. A 50 car train would have a 50X chance…
But more than that, each train car adds mass to the overall train, which acts as a force multiplier for every car you add.
Hmmm....
Not sure if that works. If you take 5 INDIVIDUAL cars, then, of course, they would have 5 times the chance of derailing of a single car.
But, it's not that simple.
There are other forces - pull on the couplers? - that might, might, have a stabilizing effect preventing the derailment of any individual car in a long train.
Does increased mass increase the risk of derailment? Once again, one might argue that an increased mass has other unrecognized effects. Is a heavier car more stable on the rails?
The mass of the individual cars stays the same. It’s the momentum that is massively increased.
