Hamas attacks Israel
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
And the expectation would be children would be 50% of civilian casualties given the demographics of the place.
True. However "children" is a pretty fluid term.
A 16 year old child carjacked a car in Chicago the other night. So did a 14 year old child.
"Culture..."
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
If that’s who came from then sure. But the numbers don’t seem ridiculously high.
And the expectation would be children would be 50% of civilian casualties given the demographics of the place.
If the IDF was just randomly chucking bombs, sure. They aren’t. Let’s factor in how many actually followed the IDF’s instructions to leave the area? While I’m sure that many did not, I am also willing to bet many did. And of those that did leave, it would seem likely to be disproportionately families with children. Next we have to know the actual targets. What types of buildings are they? If apartment buildings then the number of children casualties would be high. If offices, manufacturing centers, etc… The number would likely quite low. Also, how effective are the roof knocks? Are people leaving the buildings? Or are they being forced to stay in the building?
There are way too many variables IMO to sit there and say “that feels right”.
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I think 300k Israelis displaced is high. I see on tv reports that 150k people have been moved from borders (north and south) to hotels (financed by the government).
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Saw another tweet saying they’re going to evacuate a couple of additional towns in the north.
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The Atlantic article on Netanyahu:
"The End of Netanyahu"
The article lists Netanyahu's various missteps over the years, argues that Netanyahu should resign right after the war, and predicts that Netanyahu will not be elected into Israeli leadership again.
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The biggest intelligence failure in a half century happened on his watch. I understand letting him conduct the war, you don’t change horses mid-river. But I can’t imagine how they could tolerate him after that.
If he were a mensch he’d have already announced that he’s stepping down after the war. But he’s actually a felon who needs the post to stay out of prison.
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netanyahu will never admit responsibilty, not in his DNA. but the fury in the public is obvious to all. the government will fall the day the fighting stops. its almost like a greek tragedy. netanyahu's one goal in life was to go down in history in churchillian terms. (whom he worships). saviour of the west. in the end, his legacy will always be the one who sunk us into the abyss.
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I can understand the…what’s the word, anger?…over the intelligence failure and how this happened on Netanyahu’s watch. I also understand that he has some questionable legal liability going on (esp with regard to the Israeli courts).
He has been in office (this time) for 14 months. Supposedly this attack has been years in the making. Shouldn’t some of the blame be placed on this predecessor?
Of course, those who should have known that this was in the making will not suffer any consequences, probably.
And as to the current situation, what, if anything, should he do differently? No doubt he’s quite he hawk, but are the Israelis up for this? Do they support his policies wrt Gaza, etc?
I say all these things as someone who really doesn’t know much about Bibi other than what I read here and in the press. Not a fan, just trying to suss it all out.
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He was out of power 18 months out of the last 15 years. How could the lack of preparedness buck not stop with him? He also raised the price of hostages a hundred fold.
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Times mea culpa over hospital story.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/pageoneplus/editors-note-gaza-hospital-coverage.html
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
He was out of power 18 months out of the last 15 years. How could the lack of preparedness buck not stop with him?
I was unaware that his tenure was so long, only that he had been replaced by Bennett a couple of years ago.
He also raised the price of hostages a hundred fold.
Yes. How do the Israelis feel about that?
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Just a SWAG, but aren't the Israelis going to do with Hamas what they did with Hezbollah years ago? Namely, engage in a very intense urban combat war, rooting out as many terrorists as possible and damaging the organization so much, it will take years to rebuild?
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the idea that hamas should be "tolerated" in order to weaken the the palestinian authority was completely bibi's game plan. it was bibis govenements who authorized the transfer of billions in qatari cash to hamas, thinking it will buy off hamas and circumvent any need to deal with the PA. thats all bibis plan. for the past fifteen years. the bennet/lapid government stopped the cash payments, (they actually were delivered in suitcases at gaza/israel crossing points). there is no way bibi can recover from this. he made his whole career on claiming he knows best whats good for the country and everyone else is stupid.
latest polls put 80% of the populaton thinking its bibis fault. -
I am curious the shape of the government that will replace him. I don’t imagine it will be the same shape as the opposition intended before the attack. The leader of the rightward side is going away, but I don’t know that that means the political culture shifted away from the spirit of Bibi. I’m not hearing that the intelligence failure was a failure of political philosophy.
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The "hug a death cult" crowd has self-identified, and is in the crosshairs of some social retribution against their political opinions, for the first time in their lives. That will realign chunks of the younger mediocre masses who are really just interested in being socially acceptable, and have never thought or cared about politics or culture to begin with. Social retribution is anathema to them, and they will toe whatever line they are told to toe.
The older leftist mediocrities are more set in their ways, and have less to lose, and will happily die on whatever cross they think they're dying on.
Education is extremely important.
