We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while
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I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.
But whatever.
What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?
@jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.
But whatever.
What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?
I’m not confused, I’m doing a number of things at once which does lower ones IQ.
I am still waiting on the new CDC estimate that you lambasted and also your comments on the vulnerable being more protected. It’s the first thing I said when Covid came out that we had to do.
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Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.
@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.
My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.
What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.
Harvard calculated at 1 year.
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Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.
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Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.
@Aqua-Letifer said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.
Everyone biased so far has had their comeuppance but I agree there is no loss of enthusiasm.
We were taught to rely on science. It’s been a rocky ride.
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@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.
My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.
What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.
Harvard calculated at 1 year.
@Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.
My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.
What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.
Harvard calculated at 1 year.
How does that address my question?
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I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.
But whatever.
What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?
@jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.
But whatever.
I don't know what either CFR or IFR mean, I just haven't been worrying about it, really
Hasn't the amount of testing gone way up in the last few weeks?
Around here it has, there have been several local blood drive/testing events recently.
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Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.
@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.
You can google case fatality rate by age.
Generally here is what you will find
0-9. Almost nothing
10-19. 0- .20%
20-29. 0- .22
30-39. .11-.3
40-49. .08-.4
50-59. .5-1.3
60-69. 1.8-3.6
70-79. 4.8-12.8
80+. 13-20%Remember this is CFR not IFR. These % will decline with more testing.
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Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.
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Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.
@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.
I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.
Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.
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@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.
I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.
Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.
@Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.
I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures.
Not here, and anyone who implies otherwise is so completely full of shit they're walking fertilizer.
I drove around Annapolis over the weekend. There were thousands of people walking around the docks. Thousands and thousands. Both Main and West streets were closed to car traffic and absolutely packed with people.
I made three passes with my car and counted 12 people among the crowd wearing masks. Fucking 12.
Let me know if you want to see pictures.
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It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.I'm not going to pay attention to that because I really like the idea that this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Instead, I'm going to find studies that support my worldview and share those.
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@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.I'm not going to pay attention to that because I really like the idea that this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Instead, I'm going to find studies that support my worldview and share those.
@Aqua-Letifer said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:
It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.I'm not going to pay attention to that because I really like the idea that this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Instead, I'm going to find studies that support my worldview and share those.
You can’t make policy on an outlier. The odds of dying of so many other things are much greater. You do like to pick this fight but you seem to suggest that people are biased when the data says great than 99.8% and probably 99.9% chance this won’t happen.
What kind of bias is that.
