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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while

We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while

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  • MikM Offline
    MikM Offline
    Mik
    wrote on last edited by
    #11

    Not making any real sense. But we've been largely wrong about this thing from the start so I should not be surprised if we are again.

    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

    1 Reply Last reply
    • MikM Offline
      MikM Offline
      Mik
      wrote on last edited by
      #12

      Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

      L 2 Replies Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

        But whatever.

        What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

        L Offline
        L Offline
        Loki
        wrote on last edited by
        #13

        @jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

        I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

        But whatever.

        What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

        I’m not confused, I’m doing a number of things at once which does lower ones IQ.

        I am still waiting on the new CDC estimate that you lambasted and also your comments on the vulnerable being more protected. It’s the first thing I said when Covid came out that we had to do.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • MikM Mik

          Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

          L Offline
          L Offline
          Loki
          wrote on last edited by Loki
          #14

          @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

          Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

          My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

          What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

          Harvard calculated at 1 year.

          MikM 1 Reply Last reply
          • HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote on last edited by
            #15

            What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

            Education is extremely important.

            L 1 Reply Last reply
            • HoraceH Horace

              What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

              L Offline
              L Offline
              Loki
              wrote on last edited by
              #16

              @Horace said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

              What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

              Basically. It’s an estimate of life lost.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                Aqua LetiferA Offline
                Aqua Letifer
                wrote on last edited by
                #17

                Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

                Please love yourself.

                L 1 Reply Last reply
                • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                  Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

                  L Offline
                  L Offline
                  Loki
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #18

                  @Aqua-Letifer said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                  Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

                  Everyone biased so far has had their comeuppance but I agree there is no loss of enthusiasm.

                  We were taught to rely on science. It’s been a rocky ride.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • L Loki

                    @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                    Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                    My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

                    What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

                    Harvard calculated at 1 year.

                    MikM Offline
                    MikM Offline
                    Mik
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #19

                    @Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                    @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                    Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                    My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

                    What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

                    Harvard calculated at 1 year.

                    How does that address my question?

                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                      I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

                      But whatever.

                      What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

                      CopperC Offline
                      CopperC Offline
                      Copper
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #20

                      @jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                      I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

                      But whatever.

                      I don't know what either CFR or IFR mean, I just haven't been worrying about it, really

                      Hasn't the amount of testing gone way up in the last few weeks?

                      Around here it has, there have been several local blood drive/testing events recently.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • HoraceH Offline
                        HoraceH Offline
                        Horace
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #21

                        Yes, a factor in the spike of new cases is all the new testing.

                        Education is extremely important.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #22

                          Test positivity fell with increased testing until about the first or second week of June. But since the spike in new cases it's grown by half.

                          Screen Shot 2020-07-06 at 12.18.44 PM.png

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • MikM Mik

                            Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                            L Offline
                            L Offline
                            Loki
                            wrote on last edited by Loki
                            #23

                            @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                            Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                            You can google case fatality rate by age.

                            Generally here is what you will find

                            0-9. Almost nothing
                            10-19. 0- .20%
                            20-29. 0- .22
                            30-39. .11-.3
                            40-49. .08-.4
                            50-59. .5-1.3
                            60-69. 1.8-3.6
                            70-79. 4.8-12.8
                            80+. 13-20%

                            Remember this is CFR not IFR. These % will decline with more testing.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • MikM Offline
                              MikM Offline
                              Mik
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #24

                              Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                              “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                              L 1 Reply Last reply
                              • MikM Mik

                                Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                L Offline
                                L Offline
                                Loki
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #25

                                @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.

                                Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.

                                Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                • L Loki

                                  @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                  Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                  I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.

                                  Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.

                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on last edited by Aqua Letifer
                                  #26

                                  @Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                  @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                  Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                  I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures.

                                  Not here, and anyone who implies otherwise is so completely full of shit they're walking fertilizer.

                                  I drove around Annapolis over the weekend. There were thousands of people walking around the docks. Thousands and thousands. Both Main and West streets were closed to car traffic and absolutely packed with people.

                                  I made three passes with my car and counted 12 people among the crowd wearing masks. Fucking 12.

                                  Let me know if you want to see pictures.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Offline
                                    MikM Offline
                                    Mik
                                    wrote on last edited by Mik
                                    #27

                                    It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
                                    Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.

                                    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR3IwHEY8HGEYmgiKnDrgVmbHLZJTEThIrx0ecmMVSNrwHm9TbQFwszN7ho

                                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                    Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #28

                                      Yeah I saw that. Obviously an outlier but what a hellish one.

                                      He left behind a one year old.

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Mik

                                        It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
                                        Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.

                                        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR3IwHEY8HGEYmgiKnDrgVmbHLZJTEThIrx0ecmMVSNrwHm9TbQFwszN7ho

                                        Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                        Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                        Aqua Letifer
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #29

                                        @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                        It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
                                        Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.

                                        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR3IwHEY8HGEYmgiKnDrgVmbHLZJTEThIrx0ecmMVSNrwHm9TbQFwszN7ho

                                        I'm not going to pay attention to that because I really like the idea that this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Instead, I'm going to find studies that support my worldview and share those.

                                        Please love yourself.

                                        L 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                                          @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                          It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
                                          Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.

                                          https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR3IwHEY8HGEYmgiKnDrgVmbHLZJTEThIrx0ecmMVSNrwHm9TbQFwszN7ho

                                          I'm not going to pay attention to that because I really like the idea that this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Instead, I'm going to find studies that support my worldview and share those.

                                          L Offline
                                          L Offline
                                          Loki
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #30

                                          @Aqua-Letifer said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                          @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                          It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
                                          Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.

                                          https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR3IwHEY8HGEYmgiKnDrgVmbHLZJTEThIrx0ecmMVSNrwHm9TbQFwszN7ho

                                          I'm not going to pay attention to that because I really like the idea that this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Instead, I'm going to find studies that support my worldview and share those.

                                          You can’t make policy on an outlier. The odds of dying of so many other things are much greater. You do like to pick this fight but you seem to suggest that people are biased when the data says great than 99.8% and probably 99.9% chance this won’t happen.

                                          What kind of bias is that.

                                          Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
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