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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while

We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while

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  • L Offline
    L Offline
    Loki
    wrote on last edited by
    #7

    It all depends on whether the vulnerable are more protected. Initially they were sitting ducks. Just think what NYC did to them.

    Most nursing homes are experiencing very very low case loads, remember half of all deaths come from there...and many elderly live independently.

    If the young aren’t spreading to the vulnerable and this plus the surge in testing is where the new cases are coming from just maybe deaths won’t soar. It’s not axiomatic that deaths will soar.

    Maybe the IFR will finally show itself to be what the Diamond Princess told us many moons ago.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
      #8

      Again, a lower death rate wouldn't suffice. It would need to continuously fall over time. Like the death rate for people who contract the disease next week would have to be significantly lower than the death rate of people who contracted it the last week of June. Like much lower, less than half.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      L 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        Again, a lower death rate wouldn't suffice. It would need to continuously fall over time. Like the death rate for people who contract the disease next week would have to be significantly lower than the death rate of people who contracted it the last week of June. Like much lower, less than half.

        L Offline
        L Offline
        Loki
        wrote on last edited by
        #9

        @jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

        Again, a lower death rate wouldn't suffice. It would need to continuously fall over time. Like the death rate for people who contract the disease next week would have to be significantly lower than the death rate of people who contracted it the last week of June. Like much lower, less than half.

        Well it’s about 5% right now if you look at confirmed cases and deaths. CDC says less than .5% possibly. Will be interesting to see how the data shakes out.

        The best prediction is muddled.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #10

          I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

          But whatever.

          What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          L CopperC 2 Replies Last reply
          • MikM Offline
            MikM Offline
            Mik
            wrote on last edited by
            #11

            Not making any real sense. But we've been largely wrong about this thing from the start so I should not be surprised if we are again.

            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

            1 Reply Last reply
            • MikM Offline
              MikM Offline
              Mik
              wrote on last edited by
              #12

              Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

              “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

              L 2 Replies Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

                But whatever.

                What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

                L Offline
                L Offline
                Loki
                wrote on last edited by
                #13

                @jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

                But whatever.

                What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

                I’m not confused, I’m doing a number of things at once which does lower ones IQ.

                I am still waiting on the new CDC estimate that you lambasted and also your comments on the vulnerable being more protected. It’s the first thing I said when Covid came out that we had to do.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • MikM Mik

                  Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                  L Offline
                  L Offline
                  Loki
                  wrote on last edited by Loki
                  #14

                  @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                  Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                  My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

                  What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

                  Harvard calculated at 1 year.

                  MikM 1 Reply Last reply
                  • HoraceH Offline
                    HoraceH Offline
                    Horace
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #15

                    What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

                    Education is extremely important.

                    L 1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Horace

                      What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

                      L Offline
                      L Offline
                      Loki
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #16

                      @Horace said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                      What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

                      Basically. It’s an estimate of life lost.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                        Aqua LetiferA Offline
                        Aqua Letifer
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #17

                        Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

                        Please love yourself.

                        L 1 Reply Last reply
                        • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                          Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

                          L Offline
                          L Offline
                          Loki
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #18

                          @Aqua-Letifer said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                          Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

                          Everyone biased so far has had their comeuppance but I agree there is no loss of enthusiasm.

                          We were taught to rely on science. It’s been a rocky ride.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • L Loki

                            @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                            Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                            My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

                            What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

                            Harvard calculated at 1 year.

                            MikM Offline
                            MikM Offline
                            Mik
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #19

                            @Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                            @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                            Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                            My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

                            What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

                            Harvard calculated at 1 year.

                            How does that address my question?

                            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

                              But whatever.

                              What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

                              CopperC Offline
                              CopperC Offline
                              Copper
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #20

                              @jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                              I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

                              But whatever.

                              I don't know what either CFR or IFR mean, I just haven't been worrying about it, really

                              Hasn't the amount of testing gone way up in the last few weeks?

                              Around here it has, there have been several local blood drive/testing events recently.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • HoraceH Offline
                                HoraceH Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #21

                                Yes, a factor in the spike of new cases is all the new testing.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #22

                                  Test positivity fell with increased testing until about the first or second week of June. But since the spike in new cases it's grown by half.

                                  Screen Shot 2020-07-06 at 12.18.44 PM.png

                                  Only non-witches get due process.

                                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Mik

                                    Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                                    L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    Loki
                                    wrote on last edited by Loki
                                    #23

                                    @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                    Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

                                    You can google case fatality rate by age.

                                    Generally here is what you will find

                                    0-9. Almost nothing
                                    10-19. 0- .20%
                                    20-29. 0- .22
                                    30-39. .11-.3
                                    40-49. .08-.4
                                    50-59. .5-1.3
                                    60-69. 1.8-3.6
                                    70-79. 4.8-12.8
                                    80+. 13-20%

                                    Remember this is CFR not IFR. These % will decline with more testing.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • MikM Offline
                                      MikM Offline
                                      Mik
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #24

                                      Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                      L 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Mik

                                        Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                        L Offline
                                        L Offline
                                        Loki
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #25

                                        @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                        Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                        I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.

                                        Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.

                                        Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • L Loki

                                          @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                          Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                          I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.

                                          Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.

                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua Letifer
                                          wrote on last edited by Aqua Letifer
                                          #26

                                          @Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                          @Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

                                          Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

                                          I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures.

                                          Not here, and anyone who implies otherwise is so completely full of shit they're walking fertilizer.

                                          I drove around Annapolis over the weekend. There were thousands of people walking around the docks. Thousands and thousands. Both Main and West streets were closed to car traffic and absolutely packed with people.

                                          I made three passes with my car and counted 12 people among the crowd wearing masks. Fucking 12.

                                          Let me know if you want to see pictures.

                                          Please love yourself.

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