We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while

[jon-nyc]

Again, a lower death rate wouldn't suffice. It would need to continuously fall over time. Like the death rate for people who contract the disease next week would have to be significantly lower than the death rate of people who contracted it the last week of June. Like much lower, less than half.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Again, a lower death rate wouldn't suffice. It would need to continuously fall over time. Like the death rate for people who contract the disease next week would have to be significantly lower than the death rate of people who contracted it the last week of June. Like much lower, less than half.

Well it’s about 5% right now if you look at confirmed cases and deaths. CDC says less than .5% possibly. Will be interesting to see how the data shakes out.

The best prediction is muddled.

[jon-nyc]

I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

But whatever.

What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

[Mik]

Not making any real sense. But we've been largely wrong about this thing from the start so I should not be surprised if we are again.

[Mik]

Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

But whatever.

What's your narrative as to why the people who contract it the week of July 12th will have a fatality rate ~1/2 that of those who contract it the week of June 29th?

I’m not confused, I’m doing a number of things at once which does lower ones IQ.

I am still waiting on the new CDC estimate that you lambasted and also your comments on the vulnerable being more protected. It’s the first thing I said when Covid came out that we had to do.

[Loki]

@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

Harvard calculated at 1 year.

[Horace]

What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

[Loki]

@Horace said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

What does that mean? That the average life left for those who died from COVID was 1 year?

Basically. It’s an estimate of life lost.

[Aqua Letifer]

Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

[Loki]

@Aqua-Letifer said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Bias is a fascinating thing. Regarding JB's old signature, we've certainly crossed the threshold.

Everyone biased so far has had their comeuppance but I agree there is no loss of enthusiasm.

We were taught to rely on science. It’s been a rocky ride.

[Mik]

@Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

My take is that the risk rises with age and comorbidity, although if I were 70 and healthy I wouldn’t be overly scared. Of course one could have the X factor for good or bad.

What has remained constant is the number of years of life lost due to Covid.

Harvard calculated at 1 year.

How does that address my question?

[Copper]

@jon-nyc said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

I can't believe that at this late date you're still confused about CFR vs IFR.

But whatever.

I don't know what either CFR or IFR mean, I just haven't been worrying about it, really

Hasn't the amount of testing gone way up in the last few weeks?

Around here it has, there have been several local blood drive/testing events recently.

[Horace]

Yes, a factor in the spike of new cases is all the new testing.

[jon-nyc]

Test positivity fell with increased testing until about the first or second week of June. But since the spike in new cases it's grown by half.

[Loki]

@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Things that I have not been able to find is what is the fatality rate and serious case rate for those over 65 alone, or 60-70, where I fall right in the middle. I have no feel for how many people my age get mild cases and how many serious or fatal.

You can google case fatality rate by age.

Generally here is what you will find

0-9. Almost nothing
10-19. 0- .20%
20-29. 0- .22
30-39. .11-.3
40-49. .08-.4
50-59. .5-1.3
60-69. 1.8-3.6
70-79. 4.8-12.8
80+. 13-20%

Remember this is CFR not IFR. These % will decline with more testing.

[Mik]

Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

[Loki]

@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures. I don’t wipe stuff down but I am not out and about that much and certainly in places for less than 15 minutes without much convo.

Also just read a legit study that the odds of getting Covid outside are 18 times less than indoors.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Loki said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

@Mik said in We haven't beat on the IHME model in a while:

Thanks. That is part of what I was looking for. I had already found 4%, but thought that was inexact. Now what I am looking for is how the percentage of serious cases in my age range. Still, while we have opened up a bit, we're being far more careful than most.

I think a lot of people are being more careful than what we believe from seeing pictures.

Not here, and anyone who implies otherwise is so completely full of shit they're walking fertilizer.

I drove around Annapolis over the weekend. There were thousands of people walking around the docks. Thousands and thousands. Both Main and West streets were closed to car traffic and absolutely packed with people.

I made three passes with my car and counted 12 people among the crowd wearing masks. Fucking 12.

Let me know if you want to see pictures.

[Mik]

It's not just old people and the course of the disease can be awful. 41 year old Broadway actor.
Eight weeks in a medically induced coma and a leg amputation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/obituaries/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR3IwHEY8HGEYmgiKnDrgVmbHLZJTEThIrx0ecmMVSNrwHm9TbQFwszN7ho