Putin has already lost the war
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Op-Ed on long term consequences for Russian invasion of Ukraine in today’s Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/vladimir-putin-war-russia-ukraine
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I've enjoyed Harari's books.
This is a nice piece, and very optimistic.
I hope he's right.
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I've enjoyed Harari's books.
This is a nice piece, and very optimistic.
I hope he's right.
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The problem is Putin won’t be able to face a defeat, which means that if has to destroy cities like he destroyed Grozny he may..
I’ve heard some people say that a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Who knows.
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@George-K said in Putin has already lost the war:
A very long, but very interesting twitter thread on the miscalculations that Putin made. Everything from having the wrong people with him, to thinking a small war (Chechnya) is the same as a big war, and misunderstanding the concepts of "Blitzkrieg."
Thanks George! I read this last night and wanted to link it, but couldn't remember the guy's name. Very informative thread.
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The problem is Putin won’t be able to face a defeat, which means that if has to destroy cities like he destroyed Grozny he may..
I’ve heard some people say that a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Who knows.
@bachophile said in Putin has already lost the war:
a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Yes, unless he is clearly defeated and restrained he can't stop until he wins.
What is a win? In his mind it must be at least control of Ukraine. I'd not be surprised if in his mind it is much more than that.
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The problem is Putin won’t be able to face a defeat, which means that if has to destroy cities like he destroyed Grozny he may..
I’ve heard some people say that a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Who knows.
@bachophile said in Putin has already lost the war:
The problem is Putin won’t be able to face a defeat, which means that if has to destroy cities like he destroyed Grozny he may..
I’ve heard some people say that a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Who knows.
I don't know how likely it is, but maybe the best outcome at this point would be for Putin to fall downstairs on the way to a meeting.
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@Jolly said in Putin has already lost the war:
Accidents happen.
He could accidentally behead himself while shaving.
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The problem is Putin won’t be able to face a defeat, which means that if has to destroy cities like he destroyed Grozny he may..
I’ve heard some people say that a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Who knows.
@bachophile said in Putin has already lost the war:
The problem is Putin won’t be able to face a defeat, which means that if has to destroy cities like he destroyed Grozny he may..
I’ve heard some people say that a long term strategy has to include somehow Putin getting some sort of win or else the ultimate result will be worse in terms of lives and destruction.
Who knows.
No one knows.
He had the total support of Russians in turning Grozny into a parking lot. I cannot begin to describe the level of disdain towards Chechens that exists among virtually all ethnicities in the RF. Not at all the case with Ukrainians whose capital is, in Putin’s own words, the spiritual centre of the Russian soul.
As for giving Putin a win or an off ramp so as not to lose face, I’m not so sure it matters at this point. In any case his domestic propaganda machine is extensive and effective that it could, as the Russian saying goes, easily make candy from a turd and feed it to its audience.
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tldr, some more thoughts about the cyber/financial war
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/you-want-a-cyber-world-war-this-is?utm_source=url
Let me put on my red hat.
If I were RUS COMCYBERCOM, I would have three Courses of Action of increasing severity ready to present President Putin today to take down the entire Western financial system. It would be along the historically established, "If I can't use this, then I am damn sure going to guarantee that no one else can either." You want a cyber world war? That is how you get one. Shut down the global online financial system. What do the Russians have to lose?
I hoped some smart people have wargamed this out. Again, if we are blockading, with the EU & Switzerland, Russian access to her money that they need to not just fight, but to feed and employ the people of Russia, is it beyond reason to consider that a belligerent act - especially when we are arming and giving aid to the Ukrainians? We have invaded other nations for less.
Things are moving fast - and Putin has no off ramp outside complete victory.
Good luck everyone.
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From an overly simplistic perspective, I think Putin has already lost the war given the worldwide condemnation, including economic actions, we are seeing... such as the walkout by diplomats at the UN when Russia began to speak. Pretty much from every country except China, I'd imagine. With citizens in every country, including probably half of Russia, not in support of what is going on.... Putin and Russia will be a long term pariah, which will be cemented if they continue (and even succeed) in taking over Ukraine.
He's fighting a war as if it was in 1972, not 2022. Game over, man. I predict he will withdraw forces in the next 2 weeks. I hope I'm not way wrong.
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From an overly simplistic perspective, I think Putin has already lost the war given the worldwide condemnation, including economic actions, we are seeing... such as the walkout by diplomats at the UN when Russia began to speak. Pretty much from every country except China, I'd imagine. With citizens in every country, including probably half of Russia, not in support of what is going on.... Putin and Russia will be a long term pariah, which will be cemented if they continue (and even succeed) in taking over Ukraine.
He's fighting a war as if it was in 1972, not 2022. Game over, man. I predict he will withdraw forces in the next 2 weeks. I hope I'm not way wrong.
With citizens in every country, including probably half of Russia, not in support of what is going on.....
I wish I could share in your optimism about the lack of support in Russia. I do not believe for a second that the vast majority of the Russian public has not bought into Putin’s propaganda narrative blaming all of this on “Ukrainian Nazis”and NATO.
Elbows up!
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According to the news, Putin has used both cluster bombs and vacuum bombs, both of which are a violation of the Geneva Convention, making their use a war crime. No matter what happens, Putin is no longer a world leader. He is a war criminal, and will be hunted down and prosecuted as a war criminal. Ukraine may fall to Russia, but Russia cannot hold it. Putin is toast.
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With citizens in every country, including probably half of Russia, not in support of what is going on.....
I wish I could share in your optimism about the lack of support in Russia. I do not believe for a second that the vast majority of the Russian public has not bought into Putin’s propaganda narrative blaming all of this on “Ukrainian Nazis”and NATO.
@Renauda said in Putin has already lost the war:
With citizens in every country, including probably half of Russia, not in support of what is going on.....
I wish I could share in your optimism about the lack of support in Russia. I do not believe for a second that the vast majority of the Russian public has not bought into Putin’s propaganda narrative blaming all of this on “Ukrainian Nazis”and NATO.
I occasionally follow a Twitter feed for a top Russian chess player, who you would assume was a fairly smart guy, and he is parroting the Russian propaganda as though it's acknowledged truth. There's no shortage of other Russians agreeing with him. Needless to say, he's being roasted by pretty much everybody else, but in his view that is just due to their ignorance and stupidity.
Of course, I can think of at least one American professional chess player who wasn't the most rational individual when it came to world affairs, so maybe it means nothing.
