US warns Ukraine invasion may be imminent. Ukraine disagrees.
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I don't think we will go to a shooting war over Ukraine. But there could be one hell of a lot in the background.
I agree, NATO is not going into a hot war with Russia over Ukraine. However, if NATO countries want they can isolate Russia even more than it currently finds itself. The wild card in all this Germany. Outwardly Germany seems to be in line with other NATO members, but behind the scenes it is not taking quite as hard a line as the US, Britain and even France. Putin sees these divisions and is and, will continue at every opportunity, to exploit them to the max. He particularly relishes the divisions in the US. His goal is to render NATO toothless in all but on paper.
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I agree, NATO is not going into a hot war with Russia over Ukraine. However, if NATO countries want they can isolate Russia even more than it currently finds itself. The wild card in all this Germany. Outwardly Germany seems to be in line with other NATO members, but behind the scenes it is not taking quite as hard a line as the US, Britain and even France. Putin sees these divisions and is and, will continue at every opportunity, to exploit them to the max. He particularly relishes the divisions in the US. His goal is to render NATO toothless in all but on paper.
@renauda said in US warns Ukraine invasion may be imminent. Ukraine disagrees.:
Outwardly Germany seems to be in line with other NATO members, but behind the scenes it is not taking quite as hard a line as the US, Britain and even France.
Exactly. Wild card it is.
Of course, another question is that of energy. The pipeline for natural gas is important for Germany, if not crucial.
Do you think Germany's position is related to that? Do they have an alternative to Russian natural gas?
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Still don't think Russia will invade, but I could be wrong. The wild card here is Putin and Xi. If Putin goes in and we respond, it gives China the perfect opportunity to move on Taiwan, believing we could not be effective on two fronts.
Let us hope that in both cases it is brinksmanship, testing NATO and America's other alliances. Anything else has the potential to spin out of control.
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@renauda said in US warns Ukraine invasion may be imminent. Ukraine disagrees.:
Outwardly Germany seems to be in line with other NATO members, but behind the scenes it is not taking quite as hard a line as the US, Britain and even France.
Exactly. Wild card it is.
Of course, another question is that of energy. The pipeline for natural gas is important for Germany, if not crucial.
Do you think Germany's position is related to that? Do they have an alternative to Russian natural gas?
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Yeah, a lack of solidarity in NATO is a bad thing in the face of aggression. I suppose Germany has too much to lose financially and energy-wise.
SWIFT is more of a threat than a viable weapon. Anything where such action has to be unanimous is pretty close to a guarantee that trigger won't get pulled. Hopefully they have in-between measures so that it could get worse still for Russia.
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"Biden warns Americans in Ukraine to leave ..."
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Ax you realize, I hope, that Biden regardless of being a doddering old fool, has to say things like that for domestic consumption. If he didn’t and the Russians invaded, he would be more than just pilloried by his own electorate.
In any case there might just be some chinks in Putin’s armour from a source you might find surprising:
I know for a fact that open letter is causing quite the public buzz in Russia.
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Mr. Putin might be well served to remember the quote “I must find out where my people are going so I may lead them”
True, however I suspect that Putin has become so removed from reality, that he actually believes that he has become the incarnation of his own imagination’s idea of a 19th century Tsar. He even has co-opted Orthodox clergy to reinforce that very notion from the Sunday pulpit.
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Let us hope not, but remaining in power for too long has negative consequences for most everybody.
@mik said in US warns Ukraine invasion may be imminent. Ukraine disagrees.:
remaining in power for too long has negative consequences for most everybody
You've got that right. I've been a middle-manager for nigh-on 20 years, and sometimes I wake up shouting "HR????? YOU WANNA SEE, HR, ASSHOLE? I'VE GOT A MANILA FOLDER CONTAINING THE DETAILS OF ALL YOUR BATHROOM BREAKS IN MY FILING CABINET! AND LET ME TELL YOU, IT'S NOT A PRETTY SITE!!!"
Heavy is the head that wears the crown.
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We’re 2 months away from double digit inflation…
The Brad
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We’re 2 months away from double digit inflation…
@lufins-dad said in US warns Ukraine invasion may be imminent. Ukraine disagrees.:
We’re 2 months away from double digit inflation…
A war would be a nice distraction.
