CDC COVID case fatality rate

[jon-nyc]

The CDCs number implies that over 95% of NYC had it and was symptomatic.

Surely we can agree that didn’t happen.

[LuFins Dad]

That’s the problem when you try to apply a national average (and I’m not agreeing to the national average or the math that brought us to that number) to a localized outbreak. Especially for a disease that seems to have several strains of various magnitude.

I am suggesting that a 1% CFR in NYC is plausible and it’s plausible for other outbreaks to have a lower CFR. But bringing it down to.26% seems difficult to believe!

[jon-nyc]

Right but also it’s not just any localized outbreak. It is the main outbreak, still accounting for 1/5 of cases and deaths in the US.

Seems like you can’t really say “my model is what’s really going on, that stuff in NYC? Not sure what’s up with that. Must be an aberration”.

[A Former User]

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[Horace]

I don't think the data from 3 weeks ago support these numbers either.

[A Former User]

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[A Former User]

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[Mik]

All of this points out that cumulative numbers may or may not apply to your particular situation.

[Loki]

The CDC is certainly attracting attention with its new model.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/22/860981956/scientists-say-new-lower-cdc-estimates-for-severity-of-covid-19-are-optimistic

So it is what the CDC is saying but I guess now we are learning the CDC is NOT to be trusted.

[A Former User]

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[Doctor Phibes]

When analyzing data, my boss sometimes says 'But does it pass the giggle test?'

I rather feel that this data doesn't.