A more accurate way to compare flu vs COVID deaths

[Mik]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/02/theres-more-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/?fbclid=IwAR2-Tz_pD8MoAKi_uEV79m0xoNJqoVeTZTtyqrRc7kX8Cv-rzSlPZYWED9c&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

[George K]

I question that on two bases:

1. There's some evidence to indicate that COVID deaths are overestimated - to wit, anyone who dies that might be infected with SARS-CoV-2 is considered a "COVID death" even though the cause of death was unrelated. (Disclaimer: the protean effects of the virus might mitigate my comment)

2. The numbers for influenza mortality are much higher. I know both say "confirmed," but the influenza mortality I've seen is an order of magnitude higher.

[Copper]

Not even close

CDC estimated Flu deaths by year

2019 34K
2018 61K
2017 38K
2016 23K
2015 51K
2014 38K
2013 43K

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

wapo, they will go with the hate Trump numbers every time

And why bother?

Everyone knows, COVID wins!

This is like Nixon breaking into Watergate when there was no way he could lose.

[Rainman]

I don't get it. With people locked up, wearing masks, social distancing (starting to hate that phrase), there should be a downturn in our typical flu for 2019-2020, right? Or does this indicate that in terms of a virus, not much helps and we're fooling ourselves (or being fooled by politicians and experts)?
With everyone except a certain percentage being caged at home, breathing only when necessary, we should be at least at 2015-16 mortality, or better.
I'm gonna want my money back pretty soon if all of these stats don't improve.

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in A more accurate way to compare flu vs COVID deaths:

I question that on two bases:

1. There's some evidence to indicate that COVID deaths are overestimated - to wit, anyone who dies that might be infected with SARS-CoV-2 is considered a "COVID death" even though the cause of death was unrelated. (Disclaimer: the protean effects of the virus might mitigate my comment)

2. The numbers for influenza mortality are much higher. I know both say "confirmed," but the influenza mortality I've seen is an order of magnitude higher.

I think the balance of the evidence is that they’re understated. See that EMS guy’s report you posted.

I agree with number two. Mik’s source is comparing confirmed deaths, but far fewer influenza deaths are confirmed, so the estimates are a better way to go.

[jon-nyc]

How many people do you know who died of the flu, ever?

For me just one in my whole life, and it happened in February. Flu A, confirmed.

I personally know two Covid deaths, both happened in the last six weeks.

[Copper]

And all I could see of the wapo story was

LIMITED TIME OFFER

Try one month for $1

You can cancel anytime.

I can't afford that kind of expense, I'm retired

[Rainman]

@Copper said in A more accurate way to compare flu vs COVID deaths:

And all I could see of the wapo story was

LIMITED TIME OFFER

Try one month for $1

You can cancel anytime.

I can't afford that kind of expense, I'm retired

You were smart.
I found out the hard way, it's $1 per word.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in A more accurate way to compare flu vs COVID deaths:

How many people do you know who died of the flu, ever?

For me just one in my whole life, and it happened in February. Flu A, confirmed.

I personally know two Covid deaths, both happened in the last six weeks.

I know of a lot, but then I'm the guy doing the testing...

[Copper]

The only people I know who have had the covid virus were here at tncr, none in real life. I don't believe any have died.

I don't think I know anyone who has had the flu in the last few years.

[Doctor Phibes]

My great grandmother died of Spanish flu in 1920 - does that count?

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in A more accurate way to compare flu vs COVID deaths:

How many people do you know who died of the flu, ever?

For me just one in my whole life, and it happened in February. Flu A, confirmed.

I personally know two Covid deaths, both happened in the last six weeks.

Probably in the neighborhood of 20-25 from influenza. I know nobody personally that has even tested positive outside of the forum. I do know OF several deaths from COVID-19, but I didn't know them personally. Friends of Friends kind of thing. All were older than 90.

[jon-nyc]

I know a lot of positives, but then I live in NY.

Deaths were one woman in her 60s and a man in his 70s.

Oddly the one flu death I know was a 44 year old female. Very close friend of my sister in FL.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc That's kind of odd, especially for one so young. I've known two younger people that died from influenza "(both immunocompromised), but quite a few elderly.

[jon-nyc]

This was only in Feb. A few weeks later we were wondering if there was any chance it could have been covid, though it was in Gainesville FL where no cases are known to have hit that early. But her husband confirmed she tested positive for influenza A.