The New Coffee Room

By “over” I mean “no longer have popular support among most people”, with various and sundry reasons given.

It does seem inconsistent to ban beach going but be fine with the protests, from a virus-standpoint. This pretty much means the lockdowns are over. I guess we will know in 3 weeks of outdoor mass gatherings of young people with most wearing masks is ok virus-wise. If this is ok, outdoor concerts and sporting events should be ok, no?

Wow. Very sad. To think of what might have been.

Other than New Zealand or Taiwan or other island - where have such travel restrictions worked? The illegal immigration debate is over the fact that millions walk into our country by foot. Whether you think this is good or bad or just what happens, it doesn’t support a “ nuke the curve and ban entrance” strategy for the US.

Jon - Good points. I am just batting around some ideas. Shocking how little we know even at this date.

Horace - US herd immunity would require about 1 mill US deaths, in the absence of a vaccine or treatment, even if you use low fatality numbers. And we don’t know that exposure gives lifetime immunity - might be only 2-3 years or some other limited time.

Jon - While I said people were more compliant now than a month ago, nearly everyone I know or see takes risks (e. g. elevator usage) that I consider very very risky. I suspect the virus at this point is endemic and persistent and cannot be driven from the human population. Even if the whole US went into 6 month Wuhan level lockdown, the second we had international travel it would come back. I am not sure any lockdown could nuke the virus. It was just to buy us some time.

Horace - Yes, but people who have it and recover suggest it is like having a triple flu for 3 weeks. There are plenty of reasons not to want to get it, esp. before they know how to treat it, beyond not dying.

What if they “reopen the economy” and no one comes?

Loki - Yes, your article mentions that the Dutch are reopening elementary schools based on the theory that children don’t infect adults. Closing schools helps primarily because then parents don’t contact each other at pick up etc. At least that is the theory. We will know in 4-6 weeks.

Jon - Your numbers seem roughly correct. Not sure how many left the city. Exposure death rate seems to be between .5 and 1 percent. Not sure how to factor in nursing home spread.

Horace - I am just guessing. Guessing based on information, but just guessing. What we don’t yet know is staggering. Asymptomatic expanding transmission seems to short circuit our mental warning systems. We know to stay away from people who “look” sick.

Yes. I saw the lower NYPD exposure numbers. I have no answer other than masks or outdoor jobs or statistical error in a non random sample (cops are young). I have been assuming that exposure is 10 times tested results - a so far fairly good fudge factor- so 15-20 percent exposure seems likely, but could be 10-25 percent. It is shocking what we still do not know.

Do you have anything scientific -pro or con - on the Wuhan lab containment failure theory?

Re: nuke the curve. Not possible in a democracy that already had community spread for 6-8 weeks. Wuhan hit a replication rate of .3 by locking people in their homes using military force. No democracy has hit a replication rate below .6 to .8 once community spread occurred.

Are people in NYC relaxing their behaviors? I was out and about this last weekend, including seeing some of the parks and areas talked about.

I think social behavior has improved a lot. 90% mask wearing. Speaking happens at a distance. Compared to early March it is vastly better. Some parks a bit crowded. Some people still think this is all nonsense and refuse to do anything. If you think that masks work and outdoor transmission in the open air and breeze and sun is not a high risk, NYC is fine. If open sun and masks are not enough in 4 weeks we will know. There has never been 100 percent compliance. I thought it was the highest ever the last week or two, esp. on masks which I speculate is a big deal.

Per the Sweden model it is possible that young people giving it to each other in a park is a good thing as it creates herd immunity among those exposing themselves voluntarily and with the least personal risk. Nate Silver calculates that NYC is already seeing some mild curve bending due to herd antibodies as we hit 20-25 percent exposure.

What is your opinion on the reopen stuff? Overheard from a dr I know “Open for business means the ICU has room for you.” On the other hand, the current shutdown is not sustainable economically or psychologically for most people for much longer.

I have no specific answers to any question.

How is your son? How is video-school? Did you shelter in place or go elsewhere?

Different aged people will have different immune systems with different learned abilities. The young will adapt quicker to new viruses the old will be more resistant to viruses that have been encountered before in the population. Humans have been fighting viruses for 2-3 million years.

The “children don’t give it to adults” theory is based on the observation that children don’t get very sick and don’t have much of a viral load to pass on when they infrequently do. The immune system of the young seems more adaptable to fighting the virus.

Spanish Flu was the opposite. Older people had some immunity and the young immune systems had to fight it for the first time.

Dog to human? Not sure that was confirmed. Clearly it can given enough chances jump species, but pet-human transmission does not seem confirmed as a real risk. Either it jumped from a bat to a civet 20-50 years ago and then humans ate the wrong civet, or it went from a bat to a lab and then to a person who didn’t follow lab protocol. So it can jump species, but Rover and Fluffy don’t seem super risky based on current evidence.

My guess is that the virus spreads incredibly quickly but with low fatality. I believe that close to 20-25% of NYC residents have had the virus (per random antibody testing), but only a fraction of those were “sick” in the ordinary language sense of the word. This is why it overwhelms almost every political and economic system without a plan ahead of time. By the time it hits hospitals it has already spread widely.

Horace - The data from a dozen countries is fairly consistent. Children under 10 have never been documented to pass it to an adult. Family documented transmission has always when investigated been the other way. Not yet proof, but relevant question to consider re:opening schools.