Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?

[Jolly]

@george-k said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

@jolly said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

the variant has a very low mortality rate

Can't find it now...

Somewhere I read that though the overall mortality rate is low, it is very age-related. If you're, say, under 40, little to worry about. If you're (cough) more than 70, well...

Also, as @bachophile commented a while ago, in terms of impact on society, a more transmissible virus will be worse than a more lethal virus.

Yeah, but...In terms of who is vaccinated, us experienced folks are topping the stats. Louisiana is down the list for percentage of total population vaccinated (somewhere in the 47% range), but we're closing in on 70% for 65 and older.

What happened to trying to achieve herd immunity? Could this be the variant that does it?

[George K]

@jolly said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

Now, the $64 question(s)...

1. Is it definitive that the Delta version has a lower mortality rate?
2. Do antibodies to the Delta variant translate to the other COVID mutations?

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/panic-porn-dressed-science-exposing-truth-about-delta-variant

On June 18, Public Health England published its 16th report on "SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England," this time grouping the variants by Greek letters.

As you can see, the Delta variant has a 0.1% case fatality rate (CFR) out of 31,132 Delta sequence infections confirmed by investigators. That is the same rate as the flu and is much lower than the CFR for the ancestral strain or any of the other variants. And as we know, the CFR is always higher than the infection fatality rate (IFR), because many of the mildest and asymptomatic infections go undocumented, while the confirmed cases tend to have a bias toward those who are more evidently symptomatic.

In other words, Delta is literally the flu with a CFR identical to it. This is exactly what every respiratory pandemic has done through history: morphed into more transmissible and less virulent form that forces the other mutations out since you get that one. Nothing about masks, lockdowns, or experimental shots did this. To the extent this really is more transmissible, it's going to be less deadly, as is the case with the common cold. To the extent that there are areas below the herd immunity threshold (for example, in Scotland and the northwestern parts of the U.K.) they will likely get the Delta variant (until something else supplants it), but fatalities will continue to go down.

According to the above-mentioned report, the Delta variant represented more than 75% of all cases in the U.K. since mid-May. If it really was that deadly, it should have been wreaking havoc over the past few weeks.

[Doctor Phibes]

Let's hope they're right. I've seen enough articles saying 'this is just like the flu' to exercise a little caution and skepticism.

The UK government is still treating it seriously - they pushed back the 'everything is fine' date, which wasn't very popular.

[George K]

@doctor-phibes said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

Let's hope they're right. I've seen enough articles saying 'this is just like the flu' to exercise a little caution and skepticism.

Exactly. The difference is that this time, there are some actual data.

Looking at the graphs at Our World in Data, the number of deaths per million in the UK has risen in the last month, indeed.

However, the CFR has fallen in the same timeframe, and the number of cases has skyrocketed.

[Doctor Phibes]

@george-k said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

Exactly. The difference is that this time, there are some actual data.
Looking at the graphs at Our World in Data, the number of deaths per million in the UK has risen in the last month, indeed.

Yeah, I get that it's a little different this time, however the tone of the article you quoted was all too familiar. If there's one thing the last 18 months should have taught us, it's that things aren't always obvious.

[Jolly]

Meanwhile, CVD kills 2300 people/day in the U.S.

Perspective...

[Doctor Phibes]

@jolly said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

Meanwhile, CVD kills 2300 people/day in the U.S.

Perspective...

Everybody has to die from something, so the number of deaths from major diseases is always going to be high. The issue with Covid is that it's mostly on top of everything else, and it does more than just kill unhealthy people.

[LuFins Dad]

@george-k said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

Exactly. The difference is that this time, there are some actual data.

Okay, a few questions…

1. The subject of the quoted statement is “this time”. It is a singular subject, so shouldn’t it be “there IS some actual data”? Yes, data is a plural, but is not the subject…

2. If I am right, does that imply I might be racist?

3. If I am wrong, does it indicate that I might be anti-racist?

[George K]

@lufins-dad said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

@george-k said in Israel and the Second Coming of COVID-19?:

Exactly. The difference is that this time, there are some actual data.

Okay, a few questions…

1. The subject of the quoted statement is “this time”. It is a singular subject, so shouldn’t it be “there IS some actual data”? Yes, data is a plural, but is not the subject…

“This time, there is some actual pies?”

Does that work? Nope.

2. If I am right, does that imply I might be racist?

As pointed out by the example, you are wrong. But you’re still a racist.

3. If I am wrong, does it indicate that I might be anti-racist?

Being anti-racist is racist.

[George K]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/who-is-most-at-risk-from-the-delta-variant.html

Number crunching the latest data from England, 92,029 cases were analyzed between early February and mid-June and were attributed to the delta variant.

Almost 82,500 of these total cases were recorded in people under 50 years old and a majority (53,822 cases) were found in unvaccinated individuals.

Among those cases in the unvaccinated cohort, the vast majority were in the under-50 age group (52,846 cases) and only 976 cases were in the over-50s.

Nonetheless, the data showed that there have been 117 deaths among people in England who had the delta variant with the majority being in the over-50 age group.

There have been eight fatalities among the under-50s with six of them in unvaccinated individuals and the other two in people who had received one dose.