China’s Population Decline
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China’s fertility rate reached a low not seen since 1961.
China’s government now allows couples to have a third child, but a survey indicates that only about 5% of respondents would consider a third child. The government has since removed that survey from official news site.
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The big claim there is that there aren’t enough women of child bearing age in China to reverse the trend, regardless of social and economic policies. That leaves only immigration and esoteric scientific and technology breakthroughs like human cloning and the artificial womb, I suppose.
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@xenon said in China’s Population Decline:
China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.
But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.
Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.
Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.
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@loki said in China’s Population Decline:
@xenon said in China’s Population Decline:
China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.
But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.
Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.
Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.
Blaming everything on the last 4 years isn't really realistic. This has been going on for decades.
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@doctor-phibes said in China’s Population Decline:
@loki said in China’s Population Decline:
@xenon said in China’s Population Decline:
China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.
But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.
Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.
Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.
Blaming everything on the last 4 years isn't really realistic. This has been going on for decades.
Good point. It’s fun though pointing out the insanity of Russia Russia Russia when the real wolf is at the door.
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The “lying flat” movement, a demographic that has lost hope:
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China now discourages vasectomy. Many hospitals in China have stopped offering the procedure.
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@xenon said in China’s Population Decline:
I think it'll be hard to turn a "one child" culture into a culture of big families. It'll be a serious headwind to growth for decades.
I agree. There have been lots of articles in the Chinese press about woman starting families/marrying later, being more in the job force, costs of raising a child, etc. They dont want lots of kids.
Historically in China, there has not been much security from the state for elders. Taking care of old people has usually been done by families. However, the latest generation of people is in charge of six people. One kid --> Mom and Dad --> maternal grandparents + paternal grandparents
There used to be some support from the state from what was called "The iron rice bowl" where the state took some care of you from birth to death. That has almost all disappeared also.
I think that is one of the reasons that mainland china is getting more aggressive with its external foreign policy. In the (near) future, there will be much more internal dissent. One way to distract from this is to focus on blaming outside forces.
(BTW, the birthrate in Taiwan is about as bad as in mainland china)
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@taiwan_girl said in China’s Population Decline:
I think that is one of the reasons that mainland china is getting more aggressive with its external foreign policy. In the (near) future, there will be much more internal dissent. One way to distract from this is to focus on blaming outside forces.
I also wonder if, with an aging, older population, dissent will also be more subdued. It’s is easy to imagine angry young people starting a (violent) revolution, but “old people” may not be as rash or, for that matter, as energetic to resort to force.
