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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. China’s Population Decline

China’s Population Decline

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  • X Offline
    X Offline
    xenon
    wrote on 10 Jun 2021, 02:56 last edited by
    #2

    China is pretty screwed from a demographics perspective.

    Perpetual drag on them for the next few decades.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • C Offline
      C Offline
      Copper
      wrote on 10 Jun 2021, 14:45 last edited by
      #3

      You want to see population decline?

      Keep building islands in the South China Sea.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • topic:timeago-later,11 days
      • A Offline
        A Offline
        Axtremus
        wrote on 21 Jun 2021, 11:19 last edited by
        #4

        Link to video

        The big claim there is that there aren’t enough women of child bearing age in China to reverse the trend, regardless of social and economic policies. That leaves only immigration and esoteric scientific and technology breakthroughs like human cloning and the artificial womb, I suppose.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • L Offline
          L Offline
          Loki
          wrote on 21 Jun 2021, 12:30 last edited by
          #5

          Concerns about China’s struggles are always overblown. It’s part of the narrative to gain ground.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • X Offline
            X Offline
            xenon
            wrote on 21 Jun 2021, 18:28 last edited by
            #6

            China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

            But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

            L 1 Reply Last reply 21 Jun 2021, 18:33
            • X xenon
              21 Jun 2021, 18:28

              China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

              But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

              L Offline
              L Offline
              Loki
              wrote on 21 Jun 2021, 18:33 last edited by
              #7

              @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

              China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

              But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

              Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.

              Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.

              D 1 Reply Last reply 21 Jun 2021, 18:50
              • L Loki
                21 Jun 2021, 18:33

                @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

                China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

                But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

                Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.

                Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.

                D Offline
                D Offline
                Doctor Phibes
                wrote on 21 Jun 2021, 18:50 last edited by
                #8

                @loki said in China’s Population Decline:

                @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

                China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

                But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

                Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.

                Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.

                Blaming everything on the last 4 years isn't really realistic. This has been going on for decades.

                I was only joking

                L 1 Reply Last reply 21 Jun 2021, 19:46
                • D Doctor Phibes
                  21 Jun 2021, 18:50

                  @loki said in China’s Population Decline:

                  @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

                  China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

                  But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

                  Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.

                  Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.

                  Blaming everything on the last 4 years isn't really realistic. This has been going on for decades.

                  L Offline
                  L Offline
                  Loki
                  wrote on 21 Jun 2021, 19:46 last edited by
                  #9

                  @doctor-phibes said in China’s Population Decline:

                  @loki said in China’s Population Decline:

                  @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

                  China and India's rise is inevitable. Every year there are gains in GDP / capital... and they got a lot of capitas.

                  But - it is a real drag on the workforce to have an aging population. Demographics are a big growth driver (or drag).... look at Japan.

                  Yeah, but our foreign policy accelerated China’s rise and their value system is completely different than ours.

                  Also the political party in charge now got the country to obsess on Russia while the real damage was being done right under our nose by China. Oh the intellectual party as they call themselves.

                  Blaming everything on the last 4 years isn't really realistic. This has been going on for decades.

                  Good point. It’s fun though pointing out the insanity of Russia Russia Russia when the real wolf is at the door.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • topic:timeago-later,19 days
                  • A Offline
                    A Offline
                    Axtremus
                    wrote on 10 Jul 2021, 22:01 last edited by
                    #10

                    The “lying flat” movement, a demographic that has lost hope:

                    Link to video

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • L Offline
                      L Offline
                      Loki
                      wrote on 10 Jul 2021, 22:47 last edited by Loki 7 Oct 2021, 22:48
                      #11

                      China’s fertility rate is remarkably similar to the US and Europe.

                      Lying flat=not getting a job in the US.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • A Offline
                        A Offline
                        Axtremus
                        wrote on 17 Jul 2021, 22:04 last edited by
                        #12

                        Link to video

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • A Offline
                          A Offline
                          Axtremus
                          wrote on 20 Jul 2021, 14:19 last edited by
                          #13

                          Link to video

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • topic:timeago-later,5 months
                          • A Offline
                            A Offline
                            Axtremus
                            wrote on 10 Dec 2021, 14:39 last edited by
                            #14

                            https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-birth-control-vasectomy/2021/12/09/c89cc902-50b8-11ec-83d2-d9dab0e23b7e_story.html

                            China now discourages vasectomy. Many hospitals in China have stopped offering the procedure.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • I Offline
                              I Offline
                              Improviso
                              wrote on 10 Dec 2021, 14:46 last edited by
                              #15

                              Not surprising, considering the years of aborting female babies because of the "one child" policy.

                              We have the freedom to choose our actions, but we do not get to choose our consequences.
                              Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road you're on.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • X Offline
                                X Offline
                                xenon
                                wrote on 10 Dec 2021, 18:58 last edited by
                                #16

                                I think it'll be hard to turn a "one child" culture into a culture of big families. It'll be a serious headwind to growth for decades.

                                T 1 Reply Last reply 12 Dec 2021, 03:29
                                • X xenon
                                  10 Dec 2021, 18:58

                                  I think it'll be hard to turn a "one child" culture into a culture of big families. It'll be a serious headwind to growth for decades.

                                  T Offline
                                  T Offline
                                  taiwan_girl
                                  wrote on 12 Dec 2021, 03:29 last edited by
                                  #17

                                  @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

                                  I think it'll be hard to turn a "one child" culture into a culture of big families. It'll be a serious headwind to growth for decades.

                                  I agree. There have been lots of articles in the Chinese press about woman starting families/marrying later, being more in the job force, costs of raising a child, etc. They dont want lots of kids.

                                  Historically in China, there has not been much security from the state for elders. Taking care of old people has usually been done by families. However, the latest generation of people is in charge of six people. One kid --> Mom and Dad --> maternal grandparents + paternal grandparents

                                  There used to be some support from the state from what was called "The iron rice bowl" where the state took some care of you from birth to death. That has almost all disappeared also.

                                  I think that is one of the reasons that mainland china is getting more aggressive with its external foreign policy. In the (near) future, there will be much more internal dissent. One way to distract from this is to focus on blaming outside forces.

                                  (BTW, the birthrate in Taiwan is about as bad as in mainland china)

                                  A 1 Reply Last reply 12 Dec 2021, 03:51
                                  • T taiwan_girl
                                    12 Dec 2021, 03:29

                                    @xenon said in China’s Population Decline:

                                    I think it'll be hard to turn a "one child" culture into a culture of big families. It'll be a serious headwind to growth for decades.

                                    I agree. There have been lots of articles in the Chinese press about woman starting families/marrying later, being more in the job force, costs of raising a child, etc. They dont want lots of kids.

                                    Historically in China, there has not been much security from the state for elders. Taking care of old people has usually been done by families. However, the latest generation of people is in charge of six people. One kid --> Mom and Dad --> maternal grandparents + paternal grandparents

                                    There used to be some support from the state from what was called "The iron rice bowl" where the state took some care of you from birth to death. That has almost all disappeared also.

                                    I think that is one of the reasons that mainland china is getting more aggressive with its external foreign policy. In the (near) future, there will be much more internal dissent. One way to distract from this is to focus on blaming outside forces.

                                    (BTW, the birthrate in Taiwan is about as bad as in mainland china)

                                    A Offline
                                    A Offline
                                    Axtremus
                                    wrote on 12 Dec 2021, 03:51 last edited by
                                    #18

                                    @taiwan_girl said in China’s Population Decline:

                                    I think that is one of the reasons that mainland china is getting more aggressive with its external foreign policy. In the (near) future, there will be much more internal dissent. One way to distract from this is to focus on blaming outside forces.

                                    I also wonder if, with an aging, older population, dissent will also be more subdued. It’s is easy to imagine angry young people starting a (violent) revolution, but “old people” may not be as rash or, for that matter, as energetic to resort to force.

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