Two More Years
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My fear is the next wave will have a much broader base than the first.
If you think about it, the country pretty much shut down at the same time (at first approximation). I think something like 45 states closed schools in the same week (16-20 March). Yet at that time there were only a few hot areas, many places had yet to have their first Covid death (I just randomly checked Ohio and Mass, both had their first deaths the end of that very week).
Now the virus has a much broader base, and we're starting to open up? We might get lucky with some seasonality but even if we do that will just make us a bit too comfortable come September.
It’s always something.
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@jon-nyc the complacency that's coming with "we're at the peak" is disturbing. The fact that we're at the peak (and I doubt that, by the way) is no excuse for relaxing the standards in place now.
The difficult question is what is the relative cost in keeping things shut down vs the cost of letting it run rampant. Somewhere, I read that suicide has a direct correlation with unemployment rate. Are those lives less "valuable" than those that die of infection?
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K said in Two More Years:
@jon-nyc the complacency that's coming with "we're at the peak" is disturbing. The fact that we're at the peak (and I doubt that, by the way) is no excuse for relaxing the standards in place now.
The difficult question is what is the relative cost in keeping things shut down vs the cost of letting it run rampant. Somewhere, I read that suicide has a direct correlation with unemployment rate. Are those lives less "valuable" than those that die of infection?
They are not less valuable. But unlike COVID-related deaths, suicide rates do not increase exponentially with unemployment.
There is no faster growing death rate in the world right now. So yeah, the priority needs to be to figure out how to manage the virus while addressing mental health, unemployment, food supply chains, Ghana funeral memes and everything else going on.
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It’s going to be a balancing act everywhere until a vaccine is in place or somehow it disappears.
Most places will reopen soon but social distancing policies will remain, those at highest risk will remain quarantined, telework will overall remain since the prerequisite schools and daycares are a big old TBD, etc. Travel will be toast for at least another year, the holiday season will includes tons of e-commerce and video calls... but to @Copper ’s point, my main metric is the ability for the health care system to not be overrun. This disease is not that deadly if there’s the capacity to treat it.
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@89th said in Two More Years:
This disease is not that deadly if there’s the capacity to treat it.
That's only true by percentage, not volume. If 60 percent of us had it, which would be required to start looking at herd immunity, you're talking 2 to 3 million deaths. That's a very small percentage of infected but still a shitload of people.
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Fair point. Still, the balancing act is inevitable. I think people will become numb to it (working from home and social distancing felt weird for like a week for me, but feels normal [but not natural] for me now).
The economy can’t remain shut down for much longer, no matter how much cash Congress injects into the system, the ripple effect of people not working > not paying rent > not paying mortgages > defaulting on loans > system crashes...
Pretty soon it’s:
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@89th said in Two More Years:
Fair point. Still, the balancing act is inevitable. I think people will become numb to it (working from home and social distancing felt weird for like a week for me, but feels normal [but not natural] for me now).
The economy can’t remain shut down for much longer, no matter how much cash Congress injects into the system, the ripple effect of people not working > not paying rent > not paying mortgages > defaulting on loans > system crashes...
Pretty soon it’s:
Definitely. I think two major factors are at play:
- Losing the ability to work is pretty damn tragic. Much more so here than any other country, where many folks have their health insurance (and that of their families) tied to their jobs. Prospects look very bleak indeed when your entire work sector is now nonexistent. Those folks aren't going to put up with staying home and they're right; no stimulus package in the world is going to fix their lives completely. Not even close.
- A whole lot more people are going to die at the hands of coddled, 'Murican crybabies who demand rights but refuse to adopt any personal responsibility. The exact same motherfuckers who spout "liberty" and "freedom" a little too much in their Facebook feeds and watch YouTube prepper porn are going to kill some strangers because they're unwilling to wait for haircuts. I'm all for publicly shaming these assholes.
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Regardless of how we feel as individuals we will see soon how long people will stay indoors afraid of the wolf outside. The only shot one has to keeping people at bay is to convince them that waiting will yield a better outcome. Moving the goal post further out is not helpful.
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@Loki said in Two More Years:
Regardless of how we feel as individuals we will see soon how long people will stay indoors afraid of the wolf outside. The only shot one has to keeping people at bay is to convince them that waiting will yield a better outcome. Moving the goal post further out is not helpful.
Actually, I think the easier we make it on people with what we can reasonably allow, the less opposition there will be. Let folks return to as much of their lives as possible. Instead of movie theatres, open up a shitload of drive-ins. Get some stuff in our public parks so people can picnic with takeout orders. Make retail stores as idiot-proof as possible, then open them up. It would help.
Hell, I'm all for mandatory masks for awhile.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Two More Years:
@Loki said in Two More Years:
Regardless of how we feel as individuals we will see soon how long people will stay indoors afraid of the wolf outside. The only shot one has to keeping people at bay is to convince them that waiting will yield a better outcome. Moving the goal post further out is not helpful.
Actually, I think the easier we make it on people with what we can reasonably allow, the less opposition there will be. Let folks return to as much of their lives as possible. Instead of movie theatres, open up a shitload of drive-ins. Get some stuff in our public parks so people can picnic with takeout orders. Make retail stores as idiot-proof as possible, then open them up. It would help.
Hell, I'm all for mandatory masks for awhile.
Masks are fine with me for sure.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Two More Years:
@Loki said in Two More Years:
Regardless of how we feel as individuals we will see soon how long people will stay indoors afraid of the wolf outside. The only shot one has to keeping people at bay is to convince them that waiting will yield a better outcome. Moving the goal post further out is not helpful.
Actually, I think the easier we make it on people with what we can reasonably allow, the less opposition there will be. Let folks return to as much of their lives as possible. Instead of movie theatres, open up a shitload of drive-ins. Get some stuff in our public parks so people can picnic with takeout orders. Make retail stores as idiot-proof as possible, then open them up. It would help.
Hell, I'm all for mandatory masks for awhile.
Very good. There has to be a semblance of normal life.
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