GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter
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@Axtremus said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
And today the S&P 500 went up 2.66%, the Nasdaq went up 3.57%.
Probably on the news from Gilead.
@George-K said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
@Axtremus said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
And today the S&P 500 went up 2.66%, the Nasdaq went up 3.57%.
Probably on the news from Gilead.
You're too charitable ... I think it's just the traders betting on the government pumping even more liquidity into the system since the GDP number is so bad.
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Feels like a turning point last couple of days.
Cases are down, people are already getting sick of staying at home regardless of the orders and moving about more.
We've done well relative to our worst fears.
But - the pendulum might swing too fast from pessimism and fear to relief.
I wish we had developed some stronger social norms beyond "wash your hands" and "maintain 6 feet of distance".
In my neighborhood over the last couple of weeks there's been a massive uptick in the number of mask wearers. More people wear them than not - and it happened fairly organically. Social proof is a thing.
I wish we had more examples in popular media and leadership wearing masks. It's a human tendency to copy what others are doing.
The resurgences are inevitable - let's hope they're containable and that we can quickly learn from them.
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Feels like a turning point last couple of days.
Cases are down, people are already getting sick of staying at home regardless of the orders and moving about more.
We've done well relative to our worst fears.
But - the pendulum might swing too fast from pessimism and fear to relief.
I wish we had developed some stronger social norms beyond "wash your hands" and "maintain 6 feet of distance".
In my neighborhood over the last couple of weeks there's been a massive uptick in the number of mask wearers. More people wear them than not - and it happened fairly organically. Social proof is a thing.
I wish we had more examples in popular media and leadership wearing masks. It's a human tendency to copy what others are doing.
The resurgences are inevitable - let's hope they're containable and that we can quickly learn from them.
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@xenon said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
The resurgences are inevitable - let's hope they're containable and that we can quickly learn from them.
Sadly, I think you're right.
@George-K said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
@xenon said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
The resurgences are inevitable - let's hope they're containable and that we can quickly learn from them.
Sadly, I think you're right.
It’s a Gordian knot. If you are governor you are essentially the minister of health and education. Without tax revenues you can’t really do either as you have no budget.
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As far as the stock market goes, this had to have been the largest and sharpest V shaped recovery in history. Seems detached from "the economy".
@Horace said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
As far as the stock market goes, this had to have been the largest and sharpest V shaped recovery in history. Seems detached from "the economy".
True. Although the stock market is pricing the futures not the present. So I could see this V as being a fear sell off rebounding with a fed-backed realization that the fundamentals of the economy were fine. Although I still won’t be surprised if we dip back to SP 2,500...
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Nobel laureate Dr. Paul Krugman opines on the disconnection between the stock market and the general economy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-market-coronavirus.html
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Nobel laureate Dr. Paul Krugman opines on the disconnection between the stock market and the general economy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-market-coronavirus.html
@Axtremus said in GDP down 4.8% in the first quarter:
Nobel laureate Dr. Paul Krugman opines on the disconnection between the stock market and the general economy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-market-coronavirus.html
Doesn't happen very often that I don't completely disagree with Paul Krugman. Today is one of those days.
