NYC is ground zero
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 11:58 last edited by
IHME is back up. It says NY needs 5664 ventilators. Very different than Cuomo’s 30k
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 12:11 last edited by jon-nyc 4 Jun 2020, 12:13
“Narrative” doesn’t seem like the right word.
He looks at a bunch of models. The more pessimistic McKinsey model shows a need for ~30k ventilators.
I haven’t seen the details behind the McKinsey models but I’ll bet they turn out to be more accurate than IHME In most particulars. See the flaws that Cochran points out, which I quoted in the previous thread. Baked into IHME is:
- believing CCP data.
- considering our social distancing efforts the equal of Wuhan’s 2nd round in efficacy (When they were welding doors shut)
- envisioning the fall to be the same rate as the increase, IOW post-lockdown R = 1/R0
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“Narrative” doesn’t seem like the right word.
He looks at a bunch of models. The more pessimistic McKinsey model shows a need for ~30k ventilators.
I haven’t seen the details behind the McKinsey models but I’ll bet they turn out to be more accurate than IHME In most particulars. See the flaws that Cochran points out, which I quoted in the previous thread. Baked into IHME is:
- believing CCP data.
- considering our social distancing efforts the equal of Wuhan’s 2nd round in efficacy (When they were welding doors shut)
- envisioning the fall to be the same rate as the increase, IOW post-lockdown R = 1/R0
wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 12:17 last edited by@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
“Narrative” doesn’t seem like the right word.
He looks at a bunch of models. The more pessimistic McKinsey model shows a need for ~30k ventilators.
I haven’t seen the details behind the McKinsey models but I’ll bet they turn out to be more accurate than IHME In most particulars. See the flaws that Cochran points out, which I quoted in the previous thread. Baked into IHME is:
- believing CCP data.
- considering our social distancing efforts the equal of Wuhan’s 2nd round in efficacy (When they were welding doors shut)
- envisioning the fall to be the same rate as the increase, IOW post-lockdown R = 1/R0
Today IHME says 24,000 ventilators are needed in the US in total. It is also 5 days later and their model is tracking the screenshots I took. Also says NY is peaking which appears to be the case. I don’t mind Cuomo making the case for resources but last week it was all vents all the time as a political football and now we are seeing who may be right.
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 12:25 last edited by
Today the McKinsey models are far more accurate.
No way we peak Thursday. Cases are nowhere near peaking and we still have >50% positive test rate.
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Been three days since I updated this.
"NYC - 51,809 - up 9.2%
NJ - 25,590 up
Westchester - 11,567 - up 8%
MI - 10,779
CA - 10,080
LA - 9121 - up 42%!
FL - 8010"NYC - 67,551 - 9% daily growth rate
NJ - 37,505
MI - 15,718
Nassau County - 14,398
CA - 14,055
Westchester - 13,723 - only 6% daily growth.
LA - 13,010 - 13% daily growth rate
Suffolk County - 12,405
FL - 12,151 - 15% daily growthNassau and Suffolk counties are the two counties of Long Island. Nassau borders the city, Suffolk is further out.
Probably makes sense to think of NYC, Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk, and NJ as a 150k+ case cluster.
wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 22:48 last edited by@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 67,551 - 9% daily growth rate
NJ - 37,505
MI - 15,718
Nassau County - 14,398
CA - 14,055
Westchester - 13,723 - only 6% daily growth.
LA - 13,010 - 13% daily growth rate
Suffolk County - 12,405
FL - 12,151 - 15% daily growthNYC - 72,181 - 7% increase
NJ - 41,090
MI - 17,221
Nassau - 15,616
CA - 15,332
LA - 14,867 - 14% increase
Westchester - 14,294
Suffolk - 14,185 - 14% increase
MA - 13,387
FL - 13,317Louisiana now has more cases than Westchester.
Every entity I didn't put a percentage increase on gained less than 10% (usually just under)
Again I like these (2nd deriv) trends.
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 23:24 last edited by
I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
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wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 11:40 last edited by
Jon
Do you know in NY what the average time from test to result is? I assume the cases tally is based on the day of the result?
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I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 11:53 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in NYC is ground zero:
I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
That's right. John Burn-Murdoch posts nightly updates with those pretty graphs showing rise, etc. When the US deaths exceeded the number from any other country, he posted the graph, with the comment "American exceptionalism."
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wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 11:54 last edited by
I'm about ready to get behind the call for martial law down here. Tracking cellphone movement, Louisiana was recently given a D- for staying in place. My parish was given a F.
I think it was a generous grade...
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I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 13:23 last edited byhttps://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/07/stop-comparing-u-s-to-south-korea-on-coronavirus/
But they’ve all missed the bigger problem with this fixation on South Korea. The comparisons are utterly pointless.
Yes, South Korea has had just over 10,000 confirmed cases and only 186 deaths. Whereas the U.S. has more than 363,000 cases and nearly 11,000 deaths.
But South Korea could hardly be more unlike the United States in almost every way. Its population is 16% of the U.S. population to start with. There are 16 million more people living in California and Texas alone than all of South Korea.
It also has one of the most homogeneous populations in the world. The U.S. is one of the most diverse. This has profound implications on everything, including health care and health outcomes. South Korea’s murder rate is 0.6 per 100,000 people, compared with 5.3 in the U.S. (Is Trump to blame for that, too?)
Rather than compare a small Asian nation to the entire United States, why not compare it to individual states?
Texas, for example, has only had 7,320 cases, and just 144 deaths among its 29 million residents. It had 686 new cases and 22 new deaths on April 5. (South Korea had 183 and 3, respectively.)
California has 39 million residents. So far, it’s had less than 16,000 total cases, and 372 deaths.
Florida, with a population of 21 million, has had 236 deaths among its 13,000 cases.
Seven states in the U.S. — with a combined population of 20.2 million — have death rates as low or lower than South Korea’s.
Comparing the entire U.S. to South Korea also fails to account for the fact that New York alone is responsible for 36% of all coronavirus cases in the U.S. even though it has only 6% of the country’s population.
However, I think this article ignores the fact that the US is about 2 weeks behind Korea in terms of spread. Let's see how that works out.
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https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/07/stop-comparing-u-s-to-south-korea-on-coronavirus/
But they’ve all missed the bigger problem with this fixation on South Korea. The comparisons are utterly pointless.
Yes, South Korea has had just over 10,000 confirmed cases and only 186 deaths. Whereas the U.S. has more than 363,000 cases and nearly 11,000 deaths.
But South Korea could hardly be more unlike the United States in almost every way. Its population is 16% of the U.S. population to start with. There are 16 million more people living in California and Texas alone than all of South Korea.
It also has one of the most homogeneous populations in the world. The U.S. is one of the most diverse. This has profound implications on everything, including health care and health outcomes. South Korea’s murder rate is 0.6 per 100,000 people, compared with 5.3 in the U.S. (Is Trump to blame for that, too?)
Rather than compare a small Asian nation to the entire United States, why not compare it to individual states?
Texas, for example, has only had 7,320 cases, and just 144 deaths among its 29 million residents. It had 686 new cases and 22 new deaths on April 5. (South Korea had 183 and 3, respectively.)
California has 39 million residents. So far, it’s had less than 16,000 total cases, and 372 deaths.
Florida, with a population of 21 million, has had 236 deaths among its 13,000 cases.
Seven states in the U.S. — with a combined population of 20.2 million — have death rates as low or lower than South Korea’s.
Comparing the entire U.S. to South Korea also fails to account for the fact that New York alone is responsible for 36% of all coronavirus cases in the U.S. even though it has only 6% of the country’s population.
However, I think this article ignores the fact that the US is about 2 weeks behind Korea in terms of spread. Let's see how that works out.
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 14:12 last edited byI think the article you post has a lot of good points, but should also mention that the mind set of Koreans (and north Asia in general) is to put the society in front of the individual. Much easier to ask/tell people to do things and there is a greater chance that they will, even if it effects them as an individual.
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https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/07/stop-comparing-u-s-to-south-korea-on-coronavirus/
But they’ve all missed the bigger problem with this fixation on South Korea. The comparisons are utterly pointless.
Yes, South Korea has had just over 10,000 confirmed cases and only 186 deaths. Whereas the U.S. has more than 363,000 cases and nearly 11,000 deaths.
But South Korea could hardly be more unlike the United States in almost every way. Its population is 16% of the U.S. population to start with. There are 16 million more people living in California and Texas alone than all of South Korea.
It also has one of the most homogeneous populations in the world. The U.S. is one of the most diverse. This has profound implications on everything, including health care and health outcomes. South Korea’s murder rate is 0.6 per 100,000 people, compared with 5.3 in the U.S. (Is Trump to blame for that, too?)
Rather than compare a small Asian nation to the entire United States, why not compare it to individual states?
Texas, for example, has only had 7,320 cases, and just 144 deaths among its 29 million residents. It had 686 new cases and 22 new deaths on April 5. (South Korea had 183 and 3, respectively.)
California has 39 million residents. So far, it’s had less than 16,000 total cases, and 372 deaths.
Florida, with a population of 21 million, has had 236 deaths among its 13,000 cases.
Seven states in the U.S. — with a combined population of 20.2 million — have death rates as low or lower than South Korea’s.
Comparing the entire U.S. to South Korea also fails to account for the fact that New York alone is responsible for 36% of all coronavirus cases in the U.S. even though it has only 6% of the country’s population.
However, I think this article ignores the fact that the US is about 2 weeks behind Korea in terms of spread. Let's see how that works out.
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 14:15 last edited by@George-K I had posted about South Korea back in the old place. That comparison has been ludicrous from the beginning. The nation has lived in a justified and necessary paranoia of a Chemical/Biological/Nuclear attack by their neighbor for generations. Until only a few years ago, they had routine civilian defense drills against biological attack. They have faced Pandemics and Epidemics in the recent past and have had a greater learning curve.
They also have a much stronger trust and reliance on a strong central government, something that is anathema to many Americans.
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I think the article you post has a lot of good points, but should also mention that the mind set of Koreans (and north Asia in general) is to put the society in front of the individual. Much easier to ask/tell people to do things and there is a greater chance that they will, even if it effects them as an individual.
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 14:16 last edited by@taiwan_girl +1
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I think the article you post has a lot of good points, but should also mention that the mind set of Koreans (and north Asia in general) is to put the society in front of the individual. Much easier to ask/tell people to do things and there is a greater chance that they will, even if it effects them as an individual.
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 14:19 last edited by@taiwan_girl There's a guy I follow online who's really big into fixies. His "job" is basically travel around, be poor, and bike in weird places.
He was saying that a major difference between San Francisco and Taiwan is that in San Francisco, if your bike isn't stolen, it's because criminals don't want to get caught. In Taiwan, it's because society will judge the shit out of you because no one wants their community to seem like the kind of place where you can have your bike stolen. I guess that's the kind of thing you're talking about?
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wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 14:22 last edited by
A funny story about South Korea was the time I was there first - probably 15 years ago or so. There were a number of student protests, quite large and somewhat "violent".
But the funny thing was that they were scheduled for a certain time period in a certain area, and there was hardly any "spillover". The first time I was in downtown Seoul, I was told to avoid Area X between this time and that time.
Sure enough, inside Area X, there was rock throwing, bottle throwing, lines and lines of police, etc.
Half a block away, shopping was continuing as normal. When the scheduled protest time ended, Area X cleared and within a short time, it was back to normal.
And then next week, it would happen again. 55555
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@taiwan_girl There's a guy I follow online who's really big into fixies. His "job" is basically travel around, be poor, and bike in weird places.
He was saying that a major difference between San Francisco and Taiwan is that in San Francisco, if your bike isn't stolen, it's because criminals don't want to get caught. In Taiwan, it's because society will judge the shit out of you because no one wants their community to seem like the kind of place where you can have your bike stolen. I guess that's the kind of thing you're talking about?
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 14:24 last edited by taiwan_girl 4 Jul 2020, 14:25Yup, take masks as an example. Very common to wear masks even before all of this. But, people would wear them if they were feeling sick, so that they would not pass on their germs to others, rather to protect themselves FROM others.
People would look bad at someone if they were on a bus or something and coughing, etc and was not wearing a mask.
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wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 15:02 last edited by jon-nyc 4 Jul 2020, 15:03
Why compare a state to South Korea? Almost 70% of their cases are in Daegu. (Or, as the author of the piece George linked would have it, ‘Daegu is responsible for 70% of their cases’.)
Most South Korean provinces have fewer than 100 cases.
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@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 67,551 - 9% daily growth rate
NJ - 37,505
MI - 15,718
Nassau County - 14,398
CA - 14,055
Westchester - 13,723 - only 6% daily growth.
LA - 13,010 - 13% daily growth rate
Suffolk County - 12,405
FL - 12,151 - 15% daily growthNYC - 72,181 - 7% increase
NJ - 41,090
MI - 17,221
Nassau - 15,616
CA - 15,332
LA - 14,867 - 14% increase
Westchester - 14,294
Suffolk - 14,185 - 14% increase
MA - 13,387
FL - 13,317Louisiana now has more cases than Westchester.
Every entity I didn't put a percentage increase on gained less than 10% (usually just under)
Again I like these (2nd deriv) trends.
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 22:33 last edited by jon-nyc 4 Jul 2020, 22:33@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 72,181 - 7% increase
NJ - 41,090
MI - 17,221
Nassau - 15,616
CA - 15,332
LA - 14,867 - 14% increase
Westchester - 14,294
Suffolk - 14,185 - 14% increase
MA - 13,387
FL - 13,317NYC - 76,876 - 7%
NJ - 44,416
MI - 17,221 - same as yesterday, clearly not updated
Nassau County - 16,610
CA - 16,429
LA - 16,284
PA - 14,852
Westchester - 14,804 - 4%
Suffolk County - 14,517
FL - 14,504
MA - 15,202. - 13.5%
IL - 12,266If I didn't note the percentage, it's under 10.
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wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 23:30 last edited by
When they identify new cases when where those tests given?
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wrote on 8 Apr 2020, 01:36 last edited by jon-nyc 4 Aug 2020, 01:36
I don’t know. I suspect the turnaround time varies by state. And even within states.
Some states report positives, negatives, and total tested and you can see there’s a delay.
Some states don’t do that. At least from what I’ve seen.