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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Puzzle time: the baseball fan

Puzzle time: the baseball fan

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #11

    Yes.

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
    -Cormac McCarthy

    1 Reply Last reply
    • KlausK Offline
      KlausK Offline
      Klaus
      wrote on last edited by Klaus
      #12

      The odds that the news improves the odds is less than 60%, Bayesianistically speaking.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #13

        I think the odds that you’re odd are even higher.

        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
        -Cormac McCarthy

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        • KlausK Offline
          KlausK Offline
          Klaus
          wrote on last edited by
          #14

          That's odd.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • KlausK Offline
            KlausK Offline
            Klaus
            wrote on last edited by
            #15

            Isn't this just yet another comparison of two "probability of >=k heads in n throws of a biased coin p"?

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            • jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
              #16

              You know what's funny?

              My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.

              I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
              -Cormac McCarthy

              KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
              • taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girl
                wrote on last edited by
                #17

                You guys should become a comedy troupe!!! 😂 😂

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  You know what's funny?

                  My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.

                  I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                  KlausK Offline
                  KlausK Offline
                  Klaus
                  wrote on last edited by Klaus
                  #18

                  @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                  I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                  The difference is that you know you have nobody to ask for clarification, whereas for us its a small investment to ask a clarifying question compared to investing valuable brain time for questionology. You are not better; you are just in a situation with less options 😉

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • KlausK Offline
                    KlausK Offline
                    Klaus
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #19

                    He shouldn't be happy. Probability of winning goes down from 0.29 to 0.179.

                    18c9cc91-79f0-4618-a88a-5bdd8c101455-image.png

                    44d17b5d-d6f4-4a86-a005-bb23d8990470-image.png

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                    • jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #20

                      You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                      Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                      -Cormac McCarthy

                      KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                      • HoraceH Offline
                        HoraceH Offline
                        Horace
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #21

                        It mostly depends on whether Tom Brady is the pitcher.

                        Education is extremely important.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                          You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                          Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                          KlausK Offline
                          KlausK Offline
                          Klaus
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #22

                          @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                          You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                          Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                          Oh, you are right.

                          Looks like the probabilities are identical, then: both are 0.1792.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                            #23

                            Yeah which is why I posted it.

                            It’s counter intuitive.

                            Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                            Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                            "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                            -Cormac McCarthy

                            HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              Yeah which is why I posted it.

                              It’s counter intuitive.

                              Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                              Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                              HoraceH Offline
                              HoraceH Offline
                              Horace
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #24

                              @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                              Yeah which is why I posted it.

                              It’s counter intuitive.

                              Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                              Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.

                              Your.

                              Education is extremely important.

                              KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                              • HoraceH Horace

                                @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                It’s counter intuitive.

                                Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.

                                Your.

                                KlausK Offline
                                KlausK Offline
                                Klaus
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #25

                                @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                It’s counter intuitive.

                                Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                You're.

                                I don't think so.

                                HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                • KlausK Klaus

                                  @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                  It’s counter intuitive.

                                  Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                  Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                  You're.

                                  I don't think so.

                                  HoraceH Offline
                                  HoraceH Offline
                                  Horace
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #26

                                  @klaus said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                  It’s counter intuitive.

                                  Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                  Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                  You're.

                                  I like pink pokemon.

                                  We know.

                                  Education is extremely important.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #27

                                    You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.

                                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                    -Cormac McCarthy

                                    HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.

                                      HoraceH Offline
                                      HoraceH Offline
                                      Horace
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #28

                                      @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                      You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.

                                      You should talk to my wife.

                                      Education is extremely important.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Away
                                        MikM Away
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #29

                                        Best puzzle thread yet.

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

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