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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Puzzle time: the baseball fan

Puzzle time: the baseball fan

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  • KlausK Klaus

    Randomness has no memory. The events are independent. Hence you should be happy.

    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #7

    @klaus

    Your reasoning doesn’t make any sense. What if his team was down 0-1 games when he left and 0-3 games upon his return? Surely the odds of his team winning the series would have dropped considerably, even though all the games are independent.

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
    -Cormac McCarthy

    1 Reply Last reply
    • KlausK Offline
      KlausK Offline
      Klaus
      wrote on last edited by Klaus
      #8

      Well, you didn't specify what "Should you be happy?" means.

      If I were a stoic, for instance, all that would matter to make me happy was whether the team played as well as they could, and it wouldn't matter whether they won or lost.

      I figured that "one game each" is better than what is to be expected at the given odds, hence one should be happy.

      But you seem to mean something else.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #9

        I thought I clarified in my second post.

        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
        -Cormac McCarthy

        1 Reply Last reply
        • KlausK Offline
          KlausK Offline
          Klaus
          wrote on last edited by Klaus
          #10

          Doesn't really clarify it. Do you mean: Does the news improve the odds that your team will win at least 4 out of the 7 games?

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #11

            Yes.

            "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
            -Cormac McCarthy

            1 Reply Last reply
            • KlausK Offline
              KlausK Offline
              Klaus
              wrote on last edited by Klaus
              #12

              The odds that the news improves the odds is less than 60%, Bayesianistically speaking.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #13

                I think the odds that you’re odd are even higher.

                "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                -Cormac McCarthy

                1 Reply Last reply
                • KlausK Offline
                  KlausK Offline
                  Klaus
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #14

                  That's odd.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • KlausK Offline
                    KlausK Offline
                    Klaus
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #15

                    Isn't this just yet another comparison of two "probability of >=k heads in n throws of a biased coin p"?

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                      #16

                      You know what's funny?

                      My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.

                      I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                      -Cormac McCarthy

                      KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                      • taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girl
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #17

                        You guys should become a comedy troupe!!! 😂 😂

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                          You know what's funny?

                          My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.

                          I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                          KlausK Offline
                          KlausK Offline
                          Klaus
                          wrote on last edited by Klaus
                          #18

                          @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                          I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                          The difference is that you know you have nobody to ask for clarification, whereas for us its a small investment to ask a clarifying question compared to investing valuable brain time for questionology. You are not better; you are just in a situation with less options 😉

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • KlausK Offline
                            KlausK Offline
                            Klaus
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #19

                            He shouldn't be happy. Probability of winning goes down from 0.29 to 0.179.

                            18c9cc91-79f0-4618-a88a-5bdd8c101455-image.png

                            44d17b5d-d6f4-4a86-a005-bb23d8990470-image.png

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #20

                              You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                              Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                              -Cormac McCarthy

                              KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                              • HoraceH Online
                                HoraceH Online
                                Horace
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #21

                                It mostly depends on whether Tom Brady is the pitcher.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                  You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                                  Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                                  KlausK Offline
                                  KlausK Offline
                                  Klaus
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #22

                                  @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                                  Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                                  Oh, you are right.

                                  Looks like the probabilities are identical, then: both are 0.1792.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                    #23

                                    Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                    It’s counter intuitive.

                                    Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                    Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                    -Cormac McCarthy

                                    HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                      It’s counter intuitive.

                                      Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                      Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                      HoraceH Online
                                      HoraceH Online
                                      Horace
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #24

                                      @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                      Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                      It’s counter intuitive.

                                      Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                      Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.

                                      Your.

                                      Education is extremely important.

                                      KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • HoraceH Horace

                                        @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                        Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                        It’s counter intuitive.

                                        Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                        Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.

                                        Your.

                                        KlausK Offline
                                        KlausK Offline
                                        Klaus
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #25

                                        @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                        @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                        Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                        It’s counter intuitive.

                                        Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                        Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                        You're.

                                        I don't think so.

                                        HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • KlausK Klaus

                                          @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                          @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                          Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                          It’s counter intuitive.

                                          Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                          Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                          You're.

                                          I don't think so.

                                          HoraceH Online
                                          HoraceH Online
                                          Horace
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #26

                                          @klaus said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                          @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                          @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                          Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                          It’s counter intuitive.

                                          Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                          Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                          You're.

                                          I like pink pokemon.

                                          We know.

                                          Education is extremely important.

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