Bad news about the new UK variant
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wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 03:55 last edited by jon-nyc
First case in US isolated in Colorado today. (IIRC)
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wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 03:55 last edited by
See my post in the good news thread
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wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 03:59 last edited by
Joy.
I wonder if it sweeps if measures that have been successful to date will suddenly become inadequate.
More personally, we've been able to avoid this thing limiting visits to indoor public places to medical visits and maybe one grocery store visit per week. I hope that still leaves me in a good spot if this variant becomes common here. I could give up all the grocery visits and most of the medical, but I really don't want to.
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wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 04:02 last edited by
Another thing to think about, a more infection virus means the bar for herd immunity will be higher. We've been assuming 70, but it could be closer to 90..
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Another thing to think about, a more infection virus means the bar for herd immunity will be higher. We've been assuming 70, but it could be closer to 90..
wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 04:27 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Another thing to think about, a more infection virus means the bar for herd immunity will be higher. We've been assuming 70, but it could be closer to 90..
Fauci has all but said that already
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wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 04:41 last edited by
In other news, I'm sick of this shit.
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In other news, I'm sick of this shit.
wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 05:25 last edited by@doctor-phibes said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
In other news, I'm sick of this shit.
There’s a vaccine for your sickness. @George-K pass the (cheap) scotch.
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@jon-nyc said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Another thing to think about, a more infection virus means the bar for herd immunity will be higher. We've been assuming 70, but it could be closer to 90..
Fauci has all but said that already
wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 12:49 last edited by@bachophile said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Fauci has all but said that already
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html
"How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?":
"When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent," Fauci said. "Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, 'I can nudge this up a bit,' so I went to 80, 85."
Of course, the herd immunity threshold is just an estimate, and the precise figure is contingent on population mixing and a host of other assumptions that may vary from location to location. The same threshold may be different in Rome than in Montana. For these reasons, Fauci has some wiggle room. But, the two undeniable admissions in the Times article are 1) Fauci is, to some degree, basing his statements on what he thinks the public will accept, and to what degree his rhetoric might help vaccination efforts, and 2) this is the absolutely stunning part, he is admitting this openly to a reporter for the New York Times!
I can totally get saying something different when it comes to the science, with new information coming to light that makes you change your mind.
But, when you change your statement because of what the public might do, to say, "I can nudge this up a bit" is amazing.
To say "my gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what I really think" is even more amazing.
This, from a scientist.
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@bachophile said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Fauci has all but said that already
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html
"How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?":
"When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent," Fauci said. "Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, 'I can nudge this up a bit,' so I went to 80, 85."
Of course, the herd immunity threshold is just an estimate, and the precise figure is contingent on population mixing and a host of other assumptions that may vary from location to location. The same threshold may be different in Rome than in Montana. For these reasons, Fauci has some wiggle room. But, the two undeniable admissions in the Times article are 1) Fauci is, to some degree, basing his statements on what he thinks the public will accept, and to what degree his rhetoric might help vaccination efforts, and 2) this is the absolutely stunning part, he is admitting this openly to a reporter for the New York Times!
I can totally get saying something different when it comes to the science, with new information coming to light that makes you change your mind.
But, when you change your statement because of what the public might do, to say, "I can nudge this up a bit" is amazing.
To say "my gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what I really think" is even more amazing.
This, from a scientist.
wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 12:54 last edited by@george-k said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
@bachophile said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Fauci has all but said that already
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html
"How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?":
"When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent," Fauci said. "Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, 'I can nudge this up a bit,' so I went to 80, 85."
Of course, the herd immunity threshold is just an estimate, and the precise figure is contingent on population mixing and a host of other assumptions that may vary from location to location. The same threshold may be different in Rome than in Montana. For these reasons, Fauci has some wiggle room. But, the two undeniable admissions in the Times article are 1) Fauci is, to some degree, basing his statements on what he thinks the public will accept, and to what degree his rhetoric might help vaccination efforts, and 2) this is the absolutely stunning part, he is admitting this openly to a reporter for the New York Times!
I can totally get saying something different when it comes to the science, with new information coming to light that makes you change your mind.
But, when you change your statement because of what the public might do, to say, "I can nudge this up a bit" is amazing.
To say "my gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what I really think" is even more amazing.
This, from a scientist.
https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/topic/6149/i-liked-science
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wrote on 30 Dec 2020, 13:30 last edited by
He's making it up as he goes along
Based on the political winds
It's amazing that anyone at all is wearing a mask or staying home
At this point I think Karen has more influence on mask wearers than Mr. Fauci
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wrote on 31 Dec 2020, 01:54 last edited by
Found it in San Diego too.
Neither the CA nor CO cases were people who had traveled.
So it’s in the community, probably all over. We just haven’t looked enough yet
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wrote on 1 Jan 2021, 04:02 last edited by
Florida, also guy with no travel history.
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wrote on 1 Jan 2021, 12:59 last edited by
Evidence is that it's no more deadly than the other strains. But, if it's more infectious, that's not a good thing, to be sure.
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wrote on 1 Jan 2021, 14:09 last edited by
I definitely recall several months ago several articles that discussed a more infectious strain. I took interest in it wondering if it had a different mortality rate. Then, it disappeared from the news and now is back with a vengeance.
I agree it’s likely widespread by now.
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Evidence is that it's no more deadly than the other strains. But, if it's more infectious, that's not a good thing, to be sure.
wrote on 1 Jan 2021, 14:16 last edited by@george-k said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Evidence is that it's no more deadly than the other strains. But, if it's more infectious, that's not a good thing, to be sure.
Bach posted about a model showing that 50% higher R0 would result in more deaths than a 50% increase in IFR.
Makes sense, since death rate is linear and R0 is exponential.
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@george-k said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
Evidence is that it's no more deadly than the other strains. But, if it's more infectious, that's not a good thing, to be sure.
Bach posted about a model showing that 50% higher R0 would result in more deaths than a 50% increase in IFR.
Makes sense, since death rate is linear and R0 is exponential.
wrote on 2 Jan 2021, 06:06 last edited by@jon-nyc https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/
To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.
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wrote on 4 Jan 2021, 18:06 last edited by
Just came across this article about a mutation found in South Africa:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-south-africa-variant-1.5860585
Anyone have more details?
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wrote on 4 Jan 2021, 18:08 last edited by
Funny my son mentioned it last night. I meant to look it up today.
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wrote on 4 Jan 2021, 18:11 last edited by
There seem to be a lot of media articles, but all seem for general public consumption.
