Bad news about the new UK variant
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It's fighting back!
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The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
We're on a national lockdown, meaning basically only essential travel to shops(for food/medicine) and work is legally allowed.
I've heard that 1 in 30 people are now infected in the South East of England, with the rest of the UK following the upward trend. But the lockdown ought to slow the Reproduction rate.
This is naturally reflected about two weeks later in the number of people hospitalised (and deaths), some hospitals are undoubtedly reaching breaking point, having over 50% of beds filled with Covid patients needing critical care.
Certainly some patients from London/S.E have been moved to hospitals outside of the area.
Over 1000 deaths/day for the last few days, we may hit 1500/day tomorrow.It's therefore going to get worse for a week or two before lockdown slows the R rate and it gets better. End of February ought to be the turning point by which time most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated.
But as Jolly said, it's a virus, and worst scenario it could mutate into a variant resistant to the vaccine. We have three vaccines approved now.Everybody I know can speak of someone...family, colleagues, friends, or neighbours... of someone who is/was badly ill or has died. Everybody.
You want to hear how it is, listen/read what Professor Chris Whitty says. He's no politician.
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The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
We're on a national lockdown, meaning basically only essential travel to shops(for food/medicine) and work is legally allowed.
I've heard that 1 in 30 people are now infected in the South East of England, with the rest of the UK following the upward trend. But the lockdown ought to slow the Reproduction rate.
This is naturally reflected about two weeks later in the number of people hospitalised (and deaths), some hospitals are undoubtedly reaching breaking point, having over 50% of beds filled with Covid patients needing critical care.
Certainly some patients from London/S.E have been moved to hospitals outside of the area.
Over 1000 deaths/day for the last few days, we may hit 1500/day tomorrow.It's therefore going to get worse for a week or two before lockdown slows the R rate and it gets better. End of February ought to be the turning point by which time most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated.
But as Jolly said, it's a virus, and worst scenario it could mutate into a variant resistant to the vaccine. We have three vaccines approved now.Everybody I know can speak of someone...family, colleagues, friends, or neighbours... of someone who is/was badly ill or has died. Everybody.
You want to hear how it is, listen/read what Professor Chris Whitty says. He's no politician.
@andyd said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
I don't know if you saw Bach's post above, about the relative lethality, on a population basis, of a more transmissible vs a more virulent disease.
More transmissible, with the same lethality is worse. Much worse.
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@andyd said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
I don't know if you saw Bach's post above, about the relative lethality, on a population basis, of a more transmissible vs a more virulent disease.
More transmissible, with the same lethality is worse. Much worse.
The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
I don't know if you saw Bach's post above, about the relative lethality, on a population basis, of a more transmissible vs a more virulent disease.
More transmissible, with the same lethality is worse. Much worse.
Yup.
With hindsight we should have locked down nationally the first time for 4 months until Covid cases were effectively zero, and stopped all flights etc into the country until enforced checks and isolation were in place (like Malaysia with an automatic 14 day quarantine when you fly in).
Our police (and I think army) are now helping the NHS ambulance service. Crime has switched from the streets to fraud/cyber crime/phone scams.Looks like we're heading for 100,000 deaths before vaccinations bring it under control.
Latest death I personally heard about was a friend of my good friend. He had a Covid induced heart attack on New Years morning. Aged only 50, leaves a wife and two teenage daughters.One of my daughters yesterday rather brightly pointed out that all these deaths must be taking the pressure off a lot of our pension funds
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The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
I don't know if you saw Bach's post above, about the relative lethality, on a population basis, of a more transmissible vs a more virulent disease.
More transmissible, with the same lethality is worse. Much worse.
Yup.
With hindsight we should have locked down nationally the first time for 4 months until Covid cases were effectively zero, and stopped all flights etc into the country until enforced checks and isolation were in place (like Malaysia with an automatic 14 day quarantine when you fly in).
Our police (and I think army) are now helping the NHS ambulance service. Crime has switched from the streets to fraud/cyber crime/phone scams.Looks like we're heading for 100,000 deaths before vaccinations bring it under control.
Latest death I personally heard about was a friend of my good friend. He had a Covid induced heart attack on New Years morning. Aged only 50, leaves a wife and two teenage daughters.One of my daughters yesterday rather brightly pointed out that all these deaths must be taking the pressure off a lot of our pension funds
@andyd said in Bad news about the new UK variant:
With hindsight we should have locked down nationally the first time for 4 months until Covid cases were effectively zero, and stopped all flights etc into the country until enforced checks and isolation were in place (like Malaysia with an automatic 14 day quarantine when you fly in).
Thailand, Taiwan, etc have this. Pain to do and a lot of travel planning is involved if you want to go to these countries, but it has kept inside cases to a minimum.
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Is it 2022 yet?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/health/covid-cdc-variant.html
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C.D.C. Warns the New Virus Variant Could Fuel Huge Spikes in Covid Cases
The more contagious version, first identified in Britain, is expected to spread widely and lead to further strains on an already overburdened health care system.
Federal health officials warned on Friday that a far more contagious variant of the coronavirus first identified in Britain could become the dominant source of infection in the United States by March, and would likely lead to a wrenching surge in cases and deaths that would further burden overwhelmed hospitals.
This dire forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made plain what has been suspected for weeks now: The nation is in an urgent race to vaccinate as many Americans as possible before the variant spreads across the country.
Public health officials emphasized that protective measures already in place should work against the new variant, and urged Americans to redouble their vigilance in wearing face masks, in maintaining physical distance outside their households, washing hands frequently and limiting social interactions and indoor gatherings.
The variant is not known to be more deadly or to cause more severe disease. But the worrisome warning — hedged by limited data about just how prevalent the variant has become — landed at the end of a week when the nation’s nascent vaccination campaign appeared to be scattershot and still disappointingly elusive for most Americans. It was hampered by confusion over eligibility for people beyond frontline health workers, miscommunication over increasingly limited supplies as demand grew and by bungled rollouts from state to state.
The images of elderly Americans standing or sitting for hours in long lines, anxious for their shots while some were turned away, became emblematic of a patchwork approach that belied the promises of protection for the most vulnerable.
The C.D.C.’s projections could also prove extremely troubling for hospitals and nursing homes, many of which are already operating at or near capacity. Medical centers and nursing homes have faced increasing rates of infection among their staffs, causing shortages and leading to increased patient loads that have at times jeopardized patient care.
“I want to stress that we are deeply concerned that this strain is more transmissible and can accelerate outbreaks in the U.S. in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Jay Butler, deputy director for infectious diseases at the C.D.C. “We’re sounding the alarm and urging people to realize the pandemic is not over and in no way is it time to throw in the towel.”
“We know what works and we know what to do,” he said.
The agency’s study lends urgency to the plan announced by President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., who is proposing to spend more than than $400 billion to combat the pandemic and accelerate vaccine distribution. It is part of his larger $1.9 trillion economic package aimed at offering financial aid and relief to local governments facing shortfalls and to individuals, and businesses that sustained losses during the nearly yearlong crisis.
“The more people we vaccinate and the faster we do it, the sooner we can put this pandemic behind us and the sooner we can build our economy back better and get back to our lives and our loved ones,” Mr. Biden said on Friday as he announced a five-point vaccination plan.
Privately, one C.D.C. official said the prospect of the new variant’s prowess was “chilling,” and underscored the urgent need for people to follow precautions. A bulletin released by the agency — which used highway emergency sign imagery to warn of rising cases, strained hospitals and new more contagious variants — conveyed the sense of urgency. “More spread, more cases, more deaths,” it warned.
Covid cases and deaths have broken record after record across the country, with a peak number of deaths, 4,400, announced on Tuesday. At least 3,973 new deaths and 238,390 new cases were reported on Thursday, and the nation is nearing a milestone of 400,000 deaths.
