Bad news about the new UK variant

[jon-nyc]

@george-k said in Bad news about the new UK variant:

Evidence is that it's no more deadly than the other strains. But, if it's more infectious, that's not a good thing, to be sure.

Bach posted about a model showing that 50% higher R0 would result in more deaths than a 50% increase in IFR.

Makes sense, since death rate is linear and R0 is exponential.

[bachophile]

@jon-nyc https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/

To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.

[Renauda]

Just came across this article about a mutation found in South Africa:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-south-africa-variant-1.5860585

Anyone have more details?

[jon-nyc]

Funny my son mentioned it last night. I meant to look it up today.

[Renauda]

There seem to be a lot of media articles, but all seem for general public consumption.

[Jolly]

Viruses gotta virus.

What did y'all expect?

[Renauda]

It's a given that it would mutate. No surprise. Why do you ask?

[Horace]

We all host mutations every day. Viruses are so small though, a mutation can change them drastically.

[Jolly]

I didn't ask. It's a rhetorical device pointing out the obvious...

[Renauda]

Oh, I see.

[LuFins Dad]

It's fighting back!

[jon-nyc]

Joy.

[George K]

@jon-nyc I saw that earlier.

I wonder if it's transmission from an outside source or more "evolution" of the virus.

[Copper]

When those War of the Worlds Martians get here we'll have plenty of ammo

[Rich]

@copper We’ve just got to plant a few anti-maskers within them.

[George K]

[AndyD]

@george-k

The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.
We're on a national lockdown, meaning basically only essential travel to shops(for food/medicine) and work is legally allowed.
I've heard that 1 in 30 people are now infected in the South East of England, with the rest of the UK following the upward trend. But the lockdown ought to slow the Reproduction rate.
This is naturally reflected about two weeks later in the number of people hospitalised (and deaths), some hospitals are undoubtedly reaching breaking point, having over 50% of beds filled with Covid patients needing critical care.
Certainly some patients from London/S.E have been moved to hospitals outside of the area.
Over 1000 deaths/day for the last few days, we may hit 1500/day tomorrow.

It's therefore going to get worse for a week or two before lockdown slows the R rate and it gets better. End of February ought to be the turning point by which time most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated.
But as Jolly said, it's a virus, and worst scenario it could mutate into a variant resistant to the vaccine. We have three vaccines approved now.

Everybody I know can speak of someone...family, colleagues, friends, or neighbours... of someone who is/was badly ill or has died. Everybody.

You want to hear how it is, listen/read what Professor Chris Whitty says. He's no politician.

[George K]

@andyd said in Bad news about the new UK variant:

The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.

I don't know if you saw Bach's post above, about the relative lethality, on a population basis, of a more transmissible vs a more virulent disease.

More transmissible, with the same lethality is worse. Much worse.

[Renauda]

I caught the tail end of some interview yesterday on BBC World Service about yet another mutation that has appeared in Rio de Janeiro.

[AndyD]

@george-k

The mutated version is highly transmissible. Highly contagious.

I don't know if you saw Bach's post above, about the relative lethality, on a population basis, of a more transmissible vs a more virulent disease.

More transmissible, with the same lethality is worse. Much worse.

Yup.
With hindsight we should have locked down nationally the first time for 4 months until Covid cases were effectively zero, and stopped all flights etc into the country until enforced checks and isolation were in place (like Malaysia with an automatic 14 day quarantine when you fly in).
Our police (and I think army) are now helping the NHS ambulance service. Crime has switched from the streets to fraud/cyber crime/phone scams.

Looks like we're heading for 100,000 deaths before vaccinations bring it under control.
Latest death I personally heard about was a friend of my good friend. He had a Covid induced heart attack on New Years morning. Aged only 50, leaves a wife and two teenage daughters.

One of my daughters yesterday rather brightly pointed out that all these deaths must be taking the pressure off a lot of our pension funds