Another look at excess deaths
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 14:44 last edited by Jolly
COVID is a vascular disease. It makes sense that in patients with existing vascular disease, it exacerbates an existing problem and tips a person over the edge.
Ergo, a decrease in heart disease deaths and a rise in COVID deaths. The hotspots should see a short term decrease in cardiac related deaths after they cool down. Unless lack if interventional cardiac care sjews that curve, also.
At least, that's my theory du jour...
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 14:44 last edited by
I think I think we might be seeing why John Hopkins took it off of the interwebz....
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 16:19 last edited by
@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 16:22 last edited by Copper
The drama associated with covid has to be reduced so there will be no way Mr. Biden can be blamed for any unhappiness.
Mr. Biden must look good at all times, let's move covid to page 2, below the fold.
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@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 17:57 last edited by@Copper said in Another look at excess deaths:
@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
And in highly concentrated places (hospital) versus all the other places people die.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 18:35 last edited by George K
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 21:47 last edited by
The irony is that taking down the article is likely to do much more for the "Covid is nothing" brigade than publishing it would have.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 22:07 last edited by
I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 22:09 last edited by
This is why they took the article down.
The article provided evidence that may be used to support the notion that we didn't have a lot of extra deaths due to covid.
This notion must not be allowed to spread.
Even if the statistics support it.
Is that it?
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I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 22:50 last edited by@Copper said in Another look at excess deaths:
I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
Assuming these are correct numbers somebody needs to explain them.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 23:50 last edited by
The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
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The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
wrote on 28 Nov 2020, 02:52 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Another look at excess deaths:
The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
image url)https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate
image url) -
wrote on 29 Nov 2020, 15:32 last edited by
The author of the pulled article responds to JHU's action:
Today, on November 27th, The News-Letter officially posted their reason for retracting the article, stating inaccuracies in the analysis. I am frustrated at the explanation, and I think it is disrespectful to Dr. Briand’s hard work putting data together and doing an honest analysis. If her analysis was to be contradicted, then at least an equal-level analysis should be done to provide more data and thus a new conclusion. Dr. Briand and her work deserve such respect.
I have attached the links for the article, The News-Letters’ explanation for taking down the article, and Dr. Genevieve Briand’s event recording down below. Please take a look to get the full message. Thank you very much for everyone’s interest in this matter, and I respect all opinions.
Article "A Closer Look at U.S. Deaths due to COVID-19": https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Editors' explanation for the retraction: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Dr. Genevieve Briand's event video:
Link to video -
wrote on 29 Nov 2020, 17:55 last edited by
Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data...
Countless?
Data that can't be counted?
That's not very good data.
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wrote on 29 Nov 2020, 18:01 last edited by
data are like assholes, everybody has one. No wait, that's opinions.
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wrote on 30 Nov 2020, 03:34 last edited by
I saw that article too and said, WTF?
Obviously, Dominion software is counting these deaths.
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I saw that article too and said, WTF?
Obviously, Dominion software is counting these deaths.
wrote on 30 Nov 2020, 03:53 last edited by -
wrote on 22 Dec 2020, 23:39 last edited by
@kluurs said in Another look at excess deaths:
US deaths to top 3 million - most ever.
I’ve said it before, I want to see the numbers over 3 years, not one...
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wrote on 22 Dec 2020, 23:49 last edited by
This is the deadliest year in U.S. history, with deaths expected to top 3 million for the first time —
"expected to"
So these deaths haven't happened yet
due mainly to the coronavirus pandemic.
How do we know the cause of these "expected" deaths?
They haven't happened, they might not happen.
