Calling the States

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

@Larry said in Calling the States:

Trump has picked up Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and virginia.

What are you watching to see VA to Trump?

Probably West-by-God.

[Larry]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

@Larry said in Calling the States:

Trump has picked up Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and virginia.

What are you watching to see VA to Trump?

I'm flipping around through all of them, so I can't remember which one.

[xenon]

Nate Silver is getting a little belligerent on Twitter

[Larry]

Ok, I don't understand this... in Virginia, it's Trump 53%, Biden 45% but it calls it for Biden....

[jon-nyc]

[xenon]

@Larry it was similar in NC. I think it's based on the expected composition of the outstanding polls.

[jon-nyc]

This is from 538 liveblog.

[LuFins Dad]

Ok, I get VA now. They didn’t start with their absentee votes, they reported today’s results. They are about to dump the absentee votes now.

[jon-nyc]

Ah, that explains it.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

This is from 538 liveblog.

You better believe there are two armies of lawyers driving to Philadelphia at this very moment.

[jon-nyc]

It's already in the courts.

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

From James Lindsey:

"Looks like the Latino vote went for Trump, and the Latinx vote went for Biden"

[LuFins Dad]

Trafalgar’s numbers are looking on point across the board.

[jon-nyc]

What are they?

They did FL well.

They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).

[kluurs]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

I'm calling it for Trump.

Game over.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

What are they?

They did FL well.

They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).

If Trump pulls this out, a lot of pollsters, including Nate, are going to look like idiots.

[jon-nyc]

Nate isn't a pollster. He just builds models based on polls.

But people won't make that distinction and think he's an idiot anyway.

[jon-nyc]

But my question stands -

Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?

[LuFins Dad]

Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...