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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Calling the States

Calling the States

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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:19 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Dec 2020, 15:37
    #394

    Well, it's true as far as it goes but it's a different point that LD and I were discussing.

    This is imagining JJ still in the race, but some of her supporters going to Trump. What LD and I were discussing was what might have happened if there had been no third party candidate. In that case you assume some of those votes are going to break for Biden too. Therefore the number of JJ voters Trump needs is larger than just the initial gap.

    Let's just play with their first example:

    Biden leads Trump by 12,813 votes in Arizona as of Wednesday, according to the Times. While the outcome hasn’t yet been declared by most media organizations, if Trump received roughly 25% of Jorgensen’s 50,636 votes, he would be ahead.

    Ok. Imagine JJ isn't in the race and ALL of those voters either go for Biden or Trump.

    Trump needs 31,725 of the 50,636 or 63%. Why the difference? Because Trump needs to cover the existing 12k gap PLUS an additional vote for every one Biden gets. (note that Trump getting 31,725 in this example means Biden gets the other 18,911. Those numbers are 12,814 apart - just enough for Trump to cover the original gap with one to spare).

    Note also that this assumes ALL the votes she got go instead to either Trump or Biden. If you make the more realistic assumption that some stay home or write in a name, then the percentage Trump needs of the reminder increases further.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:25 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Dec 2020, 15:27
      #395

      Actually I gave them a bit too much credit. Based on the first sentence, they are in fact opining about what would happen if JJ was off the ballot.

      They just aren't good at thinking it through. Journos can't really math.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      1 Reply Last reply
      • C Offline
        C Offline
        Catseye3
        wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:35 last edited by
        #396

        @George-K said in Calling the States:

        the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.

        If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.

        Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

        T 1 Reply Last reply 13 Nov 2020, 01:27
        • C Catseye3
          12 Nov 2020, 15:35

          @George-K said in Calling the States:

          the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.

          If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.

          T Offline
          T Offline
          taiwan_girl
          wrote on 13 Nov 2020, 01:27 last edited by
          #397

          @Catseye3 said in Calling the States:

          @George-K said in Calling the States:

          the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.

          If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.

          LOL

          1 Reply Last reply
          • J Offline
            J Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 13 Nov 2020, 14:43 last edited by
            #398

            NYT and all the remaining networks called AZ for Biden.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Offline
              J Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 15 Nov 2020, 23:45 last edited by
              #399

              AP called everything but GA, 290-232.
              FoxNews called everything but GA, 290-232.

              ABC called all the states, 306-232.
              CBS called all the states, 306-232.
              DecisionDesk HQ called all the states, 306-232.
              NBC called all the states, 306-232.
              NYT called all the states, 306-232.
              Reuters called all the states, 306-232.
              RCP called all the states, 306-232.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              C 1 Reply Last reply 16 Nov 2020, 00:42
              • L Offline
                L Offline
                Larry
                wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:34 last edited by
                #400

                The news media does not pick the winner.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Offline
                  J Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:34 last edited by jon-nyc
                  #401

                  You’re right. We voters picked Biden. The media is just reporting the fact.

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • L Offline
                    L Offline
                    Larry
                    wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:39 last edited by
                    #402

                    It's yet to be proven that the voters actually picked Biden.

                    J 1 Reply Last reply 16 Nov 2020, 00:57
                    • J jon-nyc
                      15 Nov 2020, 23:45

                      AP called everything but GA, 290-232.
                      FoxNews called everything but GA, 290-232.

                      ABC called all the states, 306-232.
                      CBS called all the states, 306-232.
                      DecisionDesk HQ called all the states, 306-232.
                      NBC called all the states, 306-232.
                      NYT called all the states, 306-232.
                      Reuters called all the states, 306-232.
                      RCP called all the states, 306-232.

                      C Offline
                      C Offline
                      Catseye3
                      wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:42 last edited by
                      #403

                      @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

                      AP called everything but GA, 290-232 and etc.

                      Thanks for this update, Jon.

                      Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • L Larry
                        16 Nov 2020, 00:39

                        It's yet to be proven that the voters actually picked Biden.

                        J Offline
                        J Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:57 last edited by
                        #404

                        @Larry

                        You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.

                        That’s progress.

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        L 1 Reply Last reply 16 Nov 2020, 01:10
                        • J jon-nyc
                          16 Nov 2020, 00:57

                          @Larry

                          You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.

                          That’s progress.

                          L Offline
                          L Offline
                          Larry
                          wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 01:10 last edited by
                          #405

                          @jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

                          @Larry

                          You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.

                          That’s progress.

                          Dream on, Alice. I'll send you a get well card when Biden loses and they have to commit you.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • J Offline
                            J Offline
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 15:47 last edited by
                            #406

                            Pennsylvania, Nevada, MN, and NC certify their results.

                            https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-certifies-election-results-biden-trump-legal-challenges

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • L Offline
                              L Offline
                              Larry
                              wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 15:56 last edited by
                              #407

                              And you think that's the end of that, huh.....

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J Offline
                                J Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:11 last edited by
                                #408

                                Pretty much.

                                Trump’s antics will continue. But that’s all they are at this point.

                                I do hope he appeals his PA case to Scotus. I’m not yet tired of watching him lose.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                L 1 Reply Last reply 25 Nov 2020, 16:39
                                • L Offline
                                  L Offline
                                  Larry
                                  wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:12 last edited by
                                  #409

                                  Whatever will you do when you find out he lost?

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • J Offline
                                    J Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:13 last edited by
                                    #410

                                    In Scotus? Laugh my ass off and post about it here.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • AxtremusA Offline
                                      AxtremusA Offline
                                      Axtremus
                                      wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:30 last edited by
                                      #411

                                      Think Trump will tweet about "taking back" his nominations for some or all of the three justices he nominated to the Supreme Court after he loses his election case there? That will be hilarious to watch.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                        Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                        Doctor Phibes
                                        wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:34 last edited by
                                        #412

                                        He could always try and pack the SCOTUS between now and January. Steve Bannon, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter....

                                        I was only joking

                                        AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply 25 Nov 2020, 16:39
                                        • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes
                                          25 Nov 2020, 16:34

                                          He could always try and pack the SCOTUS between now and January. Steve Bannon, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter....

                                          AxtremusA Offline
                                          AxtremusA Offline
                                          Axtremus
                                          wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:39 last edited by
                                          #413

                                          @Doctor-Phibes said in Calling the States:

                                          He could always try and pack the SCOTUS between now and January. Steve Bannon, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter....

                                          That would be hilarious too, probably more so considering Ann Coulter is glad that Trump lost.

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