Calling the States

[jon-nyc]

Well, it's true as far as it goes but it's a different point that LD and I were discussing.

This is imagining JJ still in the race, but some of her supporters going to Trump. What LD and I were discussing was what might have happened if there had been no third party candidate. In that case you assume some of those votes are going to break for Biden too. Therefore the number of JJ voters Trump needs is larger than just the initial gap.

Let's just play with their first example:

Biden leads Trump by 12,813 votes in Arizona as of Wednesday, according to the Times. While the outcome hasn’t yet been declared by most media organizations, if Trump received roughly 25% of Jorgensen’s 50,636 votes, he would be ahead.

Ok. Imagine JJ isn't in the race and ALL of those voters either go for Biden or Trump.

Trump needs 31,725 of the 50,636 or 63%. Why the difference? Because Trump needs to cover the existing 12k gap PLUS an additional vote for every one Biden gets. (note that Trump getting 31,725 in this example means Biden gets the other 18,911. Those numbers are 12,814 apart - just enough for Trump to cover the original gap with one to spare).

Note also that this assumes ALL the votes she got go instead to either Trump or Biden. If you make the more realistic assumption that some stay home or write in a name, then the percentage Trump needs of the reminder increases further.

[jon-nyc]

Actually I gave them a bit too much credit. Based on the first sentence, they are in fact opining about what would happen if JJ was off the ballot.

They just aren't good at thinking it through. Journos can't really math.

[Catseye3]

@George-K said in Calling the States:

the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.

If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.

[taiwan_girl]

@Catseye3 said in Calling the States:

@George-K said in Calling the States:

the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.

If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.

LOL

[jon-nyc]

NYT and all the remaining networks called AZ for Biden.

[jon-nyc]

AP called everything but GA, 290-232.
FoxNews called everything but GA, 290-232.

ABC called all the states, 306-232.
CBS called all the states, 306-232.
DecisionDesk HQ called all the states, 306-232.
NBC called all the states, 306-232.
NYT called all the states, 306-232.
Reuters called all the states, 306-232.
RCP called all the states, 306-232.

[Larry]

The news media does not pick the winner.

[jon-nyc]

You’re right. We voters picked Biden. The media is just reporting the fact.

[Larry]

It's yet to be proven that the voters actually picked Biden.

[Catseye3]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

AP called everything but GA, 290-232 and etc.

Thanks for this update, Jon.

[jon-nyc]

@Larry

You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.

That’s progress.

[Larry]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

@Larry

You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.

That’s progress.

Dream on, Alice. I'll send you a get well card when Biden loses and they have to commit you.

[jon-nyc]

Pennsylvania, Nevada, MN, and NC certify their results.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-certifies-election-results-biden-trump-legal-challenges

[Larry]

And you think that's the end of that, huh.....

[jon-nyc]

Pretty much.

Trump’s antics will continue. But that’s all they are at this point.

I do hope he appeals his PA case to Scotus. I’m not yet tired of watching him lose.

[Larry]

Whatever will you do when you find out he lost?

[jon-nyc]

In Scotus? Laugh my ass off and post about it here.

[Axtremus]

Think Trump will tweet about "taking back" his nominations for some or all of the three justices he nominated to the Supreme Court after he loses his election case there? That will be hilarious to watch.

[Doctor Phibes]

He could always try and pack the SCOTUS between now and January. Steve Bannon, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter....

[Axtremus]

@Doctor-Phibes said in Calling the States:

He could always try and pack the SCOTUS between now and January. Steve Bannon, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter....

That would be hilarious too, probably more so considering Ann Coulter is glad that Trump lost.